JHK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast

Current as of Map Timestamp

Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast.  This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.

Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2020 election simulator.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2020 election as a Trump vs. Biden forecast. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2020 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

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Headlines

Overview and Live Results: Texas Primary Runoff Elections

May 28, 2024

30 runoffs for U.S. House and State Legislative seats where no candidate received a majority in the March 5 primary

Idaho Democratic Caucus Results

May 24, 2024

Joe Biden received 95%, winning all 23 pledged delegates

Live Results: Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon Primaries

May 21, 2024

Four states hold their down-ballot primaries this Tuesday, with presidential contests also on the ballot in Kentucky and Oregon

Overview and Live Results: California Congressional District 20 Special Election

May 20, 2024

The winner will complete the term of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who resigned at the end of last year.

Live Results: Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia Primaries; North Carolina Runoffs

May 14, 2024

Senate Democratic Primary in Maryland is the marquee race, although there are several competitive House races of interest