The graphic below plots the outcome of 10,000 Obama vs. Romney election simulations run at 4AM Eastern Time this morning. The simulations are based on state-by-state probabilities of victory. These probabilities are calculated from actual state-by-state polls. For more on the methodology, click here.
At right, we have posted some summary statistics of the last 10,000 simulations. However, given the number of possibilities, the chance of any one specific outcome occurring is quite small. For that reason, we recommend you also take note of the 50%, 75% and 90% ranges in the graphic and in the table below the graphic.
The simulator is not a predictor of the election. It provides a range of electoral outcomes that are plausible if the state polls are accurate and if each state were a fully independent event. While each state is, in theory, a separate election, the reality is that there are usually correlations. Click here to see how the 2008 simulator performed.
* How to read: If 10,000 elections were held, we would expect Obama to
have between electoral votes 50% of the time.
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Run a Simulated 2012 Election
Summary statistics from the 10,000 election simulations run on at 4AM ET.
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