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Utah, Arizona Highlight Tuesday's Election Calendar; More Democratic Caucuses Saturday

March 20, 2016

Monday Update: An Arizona Republican poll today gave Trump 46% to 33% for Cruz. This is Trump's highest number to date, although the 13 point margin is pretty similar to other polls. In Utah, a new poll gives Cruz 42% to Trump's 21% with Kasich at 13%. This is quite a bit different than the poll out over the weekend that had Cruz over 50% (that threshold needed to win all the state's delegates) and Trump at 11%. On the Democratic side in Utah, the first poll since January gives Sanders an 8 point lead over Clinton. The Utah polls are a small sample size, so caution is warranted.

See below for more info and links to the specific primary/caucus pages on our site.

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This week, voters in Arizona will head to the polls on Tuesday, while Utahns will caucus that same day. In addition, the Democrats will hold caucuses in Idaho and there will be a Republican convention in American Samoa. On Saturday the 26th, Democrats will caucus in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington. Given the time differences, it will likely be late into the evening, at the earliest, before those on the east coast see any results.

Where We Stand

Trump has 678 delegates. He needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to win the Republican nomination before the convention in July. Cruz is next at 423. These numbers include a reallocation of Rubio's 5 Alaska delegates, 3 of whom went to Trump, 2 to Cruz.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won all five of last Tuesday's contests and has opened up a significant lead over Bernie Sanders, particularly when committed superdelegates are included. That said, the calendar is quite a bit friendlier to the Vermont Senator over the next several weeks, with numerous Western caucus events and the Wisconsin primary on April 5.  

Republican

Arizona Primary The state awards 58 winner take all delegates. Polling has been pretty limited. What there has been gives Trump a low double-digit lead over Cruz. However, Republicans on the ground indicate the race is going to be very close. (Projection: Leaning Trump. The race is probably tightening but this shift needs to be enough to overcome significant early voting in the state). 

Utah Caucus A new poll (the only one we have to go on) gives Cruz 53%, Kasich 29% and Trump 11%. The state has 40 delegates that will be awarded based on various thresholds. If this poll is exactly right, Cruz will win all 40 based on exceeding 50%. If no candidate gets to 50%, the key threshold is number of candidates that reach 15%. If all three reach 15%, they'll proportionately split all the delegates. If only two reach that mark, all candidates, regardless of vote, will split. Since only three candidates remain and since Utah reallocates delegates earned by those that have dropped out, it appears the proportional allocation will essentially be the same regardless of whether only two or all three reach 15%. Update: Projection is likely Cruz; unclear whether he crosses 50%.

Nine delegates are also available in American Samoa. 

Democrat

All Democratic contests allocate delegates (except superdelegates) on a roughly proportional basis, some based on the statewide result, some based on results in individual Congressional Districts (for states with more than one District).

Arizona Primary Hillary Clinton appears to have a significant lead; crossing 50% in the two most recent polls. The state has 85 delegates. (Projection: Likely Clinton). 

Utah Caucus The only poll here, from mid-January, gave Clinton a 10 point lead. Probably wouldn't put much faith in that given that Sanders has outperfomed expectations since voting began in early February, and he's done particularly well in caucus states. 37 delegates. (Projection: Toss-up). Update: Based on new poll that has Sanders up by 8, and performance in other caucus states, will move to Lean Sanders.

Idaho Caucus No polling here; probably reasonable to see an outcome similar to that of Utah. 27 delegates. (Projection: Toss-up). Update: Still no polling, but given Utah move think this is also a Lean Sanders.

The caucus results on Tuesday will likely be somewhat instructive for Saturday's caucuses in Washington and Alaska. It's less clear what they mean for Hawaii. Washington, with 118, is the most delegate-rich state for the Democrats this upcoming week. 

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