Polling Update: Trump Still Leads; Fiorina to Take Stage at 2nd Debate?

August 18, 2015

Two new Republican polls out this week give Donald Trump about 25% of the Republican vote, keeping him well ahead of his nearest challengers. There was some variation behind Trump. In the CNN-ORC poll, Jeb Bush was the only other candidate to reach double digits, at 13%. Ben Carson, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio were bunched just under 10%. The Fox News poll showed a slightly greater preference for more conservative candidates, with Ben Carson and Ted Cruz trailing Trump with Bush in 4th place.

Trump continues to double his nearest competitors in the 270toWin poll average.

Debate Implications

The 2nd Republican debate, hosted by CNN, will be held September 16 at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, CA. 16 candidates that averaged 1% or more in 3 national polls have been invited. Jim Gilmore was not, although he has until September 10 to make the cut.

As with the first debate, the field will be divided into two groups, with those in the top 10 making the main stage. At this point, it looks like 11 candidates will be fighting for those 10 slots. Carly Fiorina's strong performance in the 'kids's table' debate last month has propelled her into the top 10. This means that one of Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Fiorina, John Kasich or Chris Christie will likely be excluded. All 5 are tightly bunched within 1% at this time.

 

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