270toWin Crowdsourced Map Sees Narrow Obama Win
America's Electoral Map gives Obama a 281-257 electoral vote majority; Iowa and Colorado closest to 50/50.
ATLANTA, GA - November 1, 2012 - 270toWin, an interactive website for the 2012 presidential election, announces the final results for its America's Electoral Map Contest, an effort to use the wisdom of the crowd to forecast the election. If the prediction proves accurate, President Obama will be reelected, earning 281 electoral votes to 257 for Governor Mitt Romney, with Ohio putting Mr. Obama across the required 270 threshold.
Over 34,000 maps were uploaded during the contest period, which began in August. The America's Electoral Map is based on about 16,000 of these -- the most recent forecast from each entrant. In the final 24 hours, over 2,500 forecasts were uploaded. While short-term results were more volatile during the contest period as entrants reacted to the latest events, in the end the 281-257 forecast was the same for entries submitted over the final 1, 3 and 7 days, as well as overall.
The closest outcomes were in Iowa (Obama picked by 50.6% of entries), Colorado (Romney 56.2%), Ohio (Obama 57.1%), Wisconsin (Obama 61.4%), Virginia (Romney 61.7%), New Hampshire (Obama 63.5%) and Nevada (Obama 66.9%). Beyond that, all states were favored for one candidate or another by over 70% of entrants, although there was considerable volatility along the way. For example, Florida was very close until the first presidential debate; after that entrants expressed much less doubt that Mr. Romney would prevail there. To see the daily results for any state, click or touch that state on the America's Electoral Map.
If this forecast (or something similar) plays out, it will mark only the 2nd time in history that a president reelected for a 2nd term received fewer electoral votes than in his first term. The other incumbent was Woodrow Wilson in 1916.
Prize winners of the contest will be chosen from among those whose electoral map forecasts end up being most accurate when the real votes are counted. These winners will be notified after the election.