America's Electoral Map (Final 2012 Results)
A Crowdsourced Election Forecast
This map is the aggregate forecast of valid entries for the selected time period in the America's Electoral Map contest. By offering a skill-based contest, America's Electoral Map is meant to be a cross between a prediction market and a straw poll. It is an effort to use the 'wisdom of the crowd' to forecast the 2012 presidential election.
The contest ended October 31. For a press release recapping the results, click here.
Obama
Romney
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90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Portion of entries selecting candidate to win state
Electoral Vote Totals
As of 12:00AM, November 1, 2012
Obama |
Romney |
|
Overall15,856 Forecasts |
281 |
257 |
Last 7 Days5,659 Forecasts |
281 |
257 |
Last 3 Days3,744 Forecasts |
281 |
257 |
Last 24 Hours2,542 Forecasts |
281 |
257 |
Results updated hourly. Click a time period to change map display. Hover your pointer over a state to see results for reach time period. Click the state for daily results.
Total Maps Uploaded: 34,342
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Why is the 'Total Maps Uploaded' larger number than the forecasts in the Overall map view? Total maps uploaded includes every valid entry to the contest, a maximum of one per day. For those that upload maps on multiple days, we assume that their latest forecast represents their current thinking. Therefore, the America's Electoral map only includes the most recent valid entry from an individual (for the time period displayed). By doing this, we feel the map best reflects the current 'wisdom of the crowd'. |
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