Senate Election Simulation

As you land on this page, a simulated election will be conducted, with all 36 Senate races decided in about 15 seconds. The results are based on the probabilities set for each state (the default probabilities are used where no modifications were made). To update or reset any of the probabilities click the Modify button.

The simulator treats each state's election as an independent event while, in reality, the outcomes across states may move together to some degree. As a result, any individual simulation her might yield some odd combinations unlikely to happen in a real-world election.

Race probabilities used in the simulation are listed below.
An asterisk (*) indicates that the probability has been updated by the user.
Update Probabilities

Senate Seats:

34   30
Running Simulation...

Upsets in this Simulation*

* Will list races 'won' by a party with less than a 30% chance of winning, based on the probabilities used.
Senate Seat Probability
Alaska 73% 
Alabama 100% 
Arkansas 94% 
Colorado 89% 
Delaware 99% 
Georgia 69% 
Hawaii 100% 
Iowa 77% 
Idaho 100% 
Illinois 100% 
Kansas 71% 
Kentucky 98% 
Louisiana 91% 
Massachusetts 100% 
Maine 100% 
Michigan 98% 
Minnesota 100% 
Mississippi 100% 
Senate Seat Probability
Montana 100% 
North Carolina 74% 
Nebraska 100% 
New Hampshire 86% 
New Jersey 100% 
New Mexico 99% 
Oklahoma 100% 
Oklahoma-2 100% 
Oregon 100% 
Rhode Island 100% 
South Carolina 100% 
South Carolina-2 100% 
South Dakota 100% 
Tennessee 100% 
Texas 100% 
Virginia 98% 
West Virginia 99% 
Wyoming 100% 

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