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2012 Election Simulator Results
Election Simulator > Daily Results

The graphic below plots the outcome of 10,000 Obama vs. Romney election simulations run at 4AM Eastern Time this morning. The simulations are based on state-by-state probabilities of victory. These probabilities are calculated from actual state-by-state polls. For more on the methodology, click here.

At right, we have posted some summary statistics of the last 10,000 simulations. However, given the number of possibilities, the chance of any one specific outcome occurring is quite small. For that reason, we recommend you also take note of the 50%, 75% and 90% ranges in the graphic and in the table below the graphic.

The simulator is not a predictor of the election. It provides a range of electoral outcomes that are plausible if the state polls are accurate and if each state were a fully independent event. While each state is, in theory, a separate election, the reality is that there are usually correlations. Click here to see how the 2008 simulator performed.
50% 75% 90% 100%

* How to read: If 10,000 elections were held, we would expect Obama to
   have between   electoral votes 50% of the time.

  1. Median: This is the midpoint. If you rearranged all 10,000 simulations from high to low electoral votes, this would be the middle outcome.
  2. Average: This is a weighted average. If you added up all the electoral votes from the 10,000 simulations and divided by 10,000, this would be the average result.
  3. Most Common Outcome: This is the result that happened most often in 10,000 simulations. While interesting, it may bear no relationship to the other statistics. In fact, it might show a result favoring a different party than the other statistics. (As the number of swing states decreases, the most common result will move closer to the median and average.)
  4. Range: This is the full range of outcomes that occurred over 10,000 simulations. Essentially, it says that – given the current polls – the election outcome will not be outside this range.

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