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2008 Election Simulator Results

Please Note: The simulator is NOT a prediction of the outcome of the election. It merely takes representative state polls (or averages of multiple polls where appropriate) and answers the question: IF the election were today, what is the range of likely outcomes, based purely on those polls? In the graphic below and the statistics to the right, you can see how the final set of polls predicted the 2008 election would turn out. Note also that the current version of the simulator treats each state as an independent event. As a result, it somewhat underplays the possibility of most or all swing states breaking for one candidate on election day. If that were to happen, the outcome would likely be much closer to the edge of the range of outcomes than the center. To come up with your own scenarios, visit our 2008 interactive map.

The graphic below plots the outcome of the last 1,000 Obama vs. McCain election simulations run by visitors to 270toWin. The simulations are based on state-by-state probabilities of victory. These probabilities are calculated from actual state-by-state polls. For more on the methodology, click here.

Obama[54%][274] [264] At right, we have posted some summary statistics of the last 1,000 simulations. However, given the number of possibilities, the chance of any one specific outcome occurring is quite small. For that reason, we recommend you also take note of the 50%, 75% and 90% ranges in the graphic and in the table below the graphic.

	50%	75%	90%	100%
Obama
McCain

* How to read: If 1,000 elections were held, we would expect Obama to
   have between   electoral votes 50% of the time.

1. Median: This is the midpoint. If you rearranged all 1,000 simulations from high to low electoral votes, this would be the middle outcome.
2. Average: This is a weighted average. If you added up all the electoral votes from the 1,000 simulations and divided by 1,000, this would be the average result.
3. Most Common Outcome: This is the result that happened most often in 1,000 simulations. While interesting, it may bear no relationship to the other statistics. In fact, it might show a result favoring a different party than the other statistics. (As the number of swing states decreases, the most common result will move closer to the median and average.)
4. Range: This is the full range of outcomes that occurred over 1,000 simulations. Essentially, it says that – given the current polls – the election outcome will not be outside this range.

Run a Simulated Election
The simulator is closed for the 2008 election.


Simulation Results
Summary statistics from the last 1,000 election simulations.

Election Winner
Obama
McCain
Ties
Median Electoral Votes1
Obama
McCain
Average Electoral Votes2
Obama
McCain
Most Common Electoral Votes3
Obama
McCain
Range of Electoral Votes4
Obama
McCain