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2008 Election Simulator Results

There has been some confusion about what the simulator is actually calculating. The simulator is NOT a prediction of the outcome of the election. It merely takes representative state polls (or averages of multiple polls where appropriate) and answers the question: IF the election were today, what is the range of likely outcomes? However, the election is not today -- the campaign is really just beginning. A change in the polls of just 1-2% in a few pivotal states could yield totally different simulator results. To see what states the polls say are actually in play, visit the polling map and note the swing states. To come up with your own scenarios, visit our 2008 interactive map.

The graphic below plots the outcome of the last 1,000 Obama vs. McCain election simulations run by visitors to 270toWin. The simulations are based on state-by-state probabilities of victory. These probabilities are calculated from actual state-by-state polls. For more on the methodology, click here.

Currently, [Democrats] are winning about [54%] of the simulated elections, with the median (middle result) being Democrats [274], Republicans [264]. We've displayed these, and other results to the right of the graphic. However, given the number of possibilities, the chance of any one specific outcome occurring is quite small. For that reason, we recommend you also take note of the 50%, 75% and 90% ranges in the graphic and in the table below the graphic. These ranges indicate the 2008 election remains very competitive.

	50%	75%	90%	100%
Democrats
Republicans

* How to read: If 1,000 elections were held, we would expect Democrats to
   have between   electoral votes 50% of the time.

1. Median: This is the midpoint. If you rearranged all 1,000 simulations from high to low electoral votes, this would be the middle outcome.
2. Average: This is a weighted average. If you added up all the electoral votes from the 1,000 simulations and divided by 1,000, this would be the average result.
3. Most Common Outcome: This is the result that happened most often in 1,000 simulations. While interesting, it may bear no relationship to the other statistics. In fact, it might show a result favoring a different party than the other statistics. (As the number of swing states decreases, the most common result will move closer to the median and average.)
4. Range: This is the full range of outcomes that occurred over 1,000 simulations. Essentially, it says that – given the current polls – the election outcome will not be outside this range.

Run a Simulated Election
To conduct your own simulated 2008 presidential election, click here.


Simulation Results
Summary statistics from the last 1,000 election simulations.

Election Winner
Democrats
Republicans
Ties
Median Electoral Votes1
Democrats
Republicans
Average Electoral Votes2
Democrats
Republicans
Most Common Electoral Votes3
Democrats
Republicans
Range of Electoral Votes4
Democrats
Republicans