2012 Election Simulator (Obama vs. Romney)

As you land on this page, a simulated election will be conducted, with all 50 states and DC colored red or blue in about 15 seconds. Click the Run Again button to conduct another one. Late each night, we run 10,000 simulations based on the then-current polls. Click the View Stats button to see those outcomes.

Methodology We take current state-by-state polls and turn the results into probabilities. Each simulation picks a winner in each individual state, based on the probabilities for that state. For example, if Romney has a 55% chance of winning Nevada, he will, in the long run, win Nevada in 55% of the simulations conducted. Some uncontested states (e.g., Utah) will always yield the same result. The simulator does not consider the possibility of split electoral votes in Maine or Nebraska.

The simulator is not a predictor of the election. It provides a range of electoral outcomes that are plausible if the state polls are accurate and if each state were a fully independent event. While each state is, in theory, a separate election, the reality is that there are usually correlations. As a result, this model underplays the likelihood of toss-up states breaking heavily for one candidate; focus should be on the full range of outcomes as opposed to any one single run of the simulator.

Amaze your Friends with Trivial Knowledge!
Did you know that there are over two quadrillion (15 zeroes) ways that the U.S. map can be colored red and blue?

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