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2008 Election Simulator (Obama vs. McCain)
As you land on this page, a simulated election will be conducted, with all 50 states and DC colored red or blue in about 15 seconds. Each time you click the Run Again button, another simulated election will take place. You can see the results of the last 1,000 simulations by clicking the View Stats button. Methodology We take current state-by-state polls and turn the results into probabilities. Each simulation picks a winner in each individual state, based on the probabilities for that state. For example, if McCain has a 55% chance of winning Nevada, he will, in the long run, win Nevada in 55% of the simulations conducted. States that are not polling close (e.g., Utah or Illinois) will always yield the same result. As a result, a closer election, with more swing states, will yield a wider range of simulation results than an election with fewer states that are up for grabs. The simulator does not consider the possibility of split electoral votes in Maine or Nebraska. |
Caution State-level polling data this far in advance of November is of limited predictive value. Therefore, these simulations may bear no resemblance to how the election will actually play out.  Did you know that there are over two quadrillion (15 zeroes) ways that the U.S. map can be colored red and blue? |
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About this Site
270towin.com is an interactive Electoral College map for 2008 and a history of Presidential elections in the United States. Since electoral votes are generally allocated on an "all or none" basis by state, the election of a U.S President is about winning the popular vote in enough states to achieve 270 electoral votes, a majority of the 538 that are available. It is not about getting the most overall popular votes, as we saw in the 2000 election, when the electoral vote winner (Bush) and the popular vote winner (Gore) were different. Contact Us:
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