Election News

Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt said Monday saying that he won't seek a third term in 2022. He made the announcement via a video release:

A summary of some content changes to the 270toWin website in recent weeks:

2024 Electoral Map  There will be a revised electoral map for the next presidential election, based on each state's population as reported in the 2020 Census. The release of that information - usually in December of the Census year - has been delayed until April largely due to the coronavirus. While we don't have the official 2024 map yet, the changes are still expected to be largely the same as those projected at the end of 2019.  The interactive electoral map has been updated to reflect that. Using the buttons above the map, you can see how things will change.  For example, the 306-232 result in the actual 2020 election becomes 302-236 if repeated in 2024.  

It took over three months but there's finally a winner in the November 3 congressional race in NY-22.  Republican Claudia Tenney has won by 109 votes out of nearly 320,000 cast over incumbent Democrat Anthony Brindisi. 

After an extended review, a judge ruled Friday that Tenney had won the race. New York certified the election results at noon Monday, and Brindisi conceded shortly thereafter, saying he would drop any further legal appeals.

I really appreciate Anthony's call today and thank him for his service. He graciously offered to help ensure a smooth transition and I look forward to working with him over the coming days to complete that process on behalf of everyone in NY22. https://t.co/3XEDKZh3TJ

— Claudia Tenney (@claudiatenney) February 8, 2021

Tenney will return to the seat she won by 5 points in the 2016 election. She lost her reelection bid to Brindisi by about 2 points in 2018. 

In the end, Democrats won 222 seats in November's election while Republicans took 213. While Democrats maintained control, their margin was significantly reduced.  The GOP had a net gain of 12 seats, including one in MI-3, which was vacated by Libertarian Justin Amash.

Currently, the House sits at  221 Democrats and 210 Republicans. There are four vacancies. In addition to NY-22, where Tenney should be seated in the near future:

Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama said Monday that he will not run again in 2022. The six-term Republican is the longest serving Senator in the state's history.

A few weeks back, we did a preliminary calculation of the 2020 electoral map if all states allocated electoral votes like Maine and Nebraska.  Those two states award two electoral votes to the popular vote winner and one each to the popular vote winner in each congressional district.  In 2020, this created a split in both those states: Trump won Nebraska while Biden won District 2; the opposite happened in Maine. 

Most states don't report presidential results by congressional district so it falls on a third party to map precinct/county reporting to districts. DailyKos does excellent work in this area; we've largely relied on their data for the map below.  There are still 5 states where the information isn't complete, including New York and Pennsylvania. However, this article on crossover districts by J. Miles Coleman at Sabato's Crystal Ball fills in those blanks for us. This updated map should be final (or very close).

Applying the congressional district method nationwide, Joe Biden still wins but by a narrower 277-261 result. While the approach might seem like a fairer one at first glance, it fails that test in the real world where many districts are heavily gerrymandered.  Politics would have to come out of the redistricting process to make this a viable alternative to winner-take-all. That's not going to happen.

Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with its initial ratings for the 34 seats to be contested in the 2022 midterm Senate elections. Republicans will be defending 20 seats, Democrats 14. However, the number of competitive seats is small and roughly split between the two parties. This means another closely-contested battle for control is on the horizon.

Read the Crystal Ball article >>

A map of the ratings is below. Click or tap for an interactive version you can use to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast.

Ohio Sen. Rob Portman said Monday that he will not seek a third term in 2022. Portman joins fellow Republicans Richard Burr (NC) and Pat Toomey (PA) in announcing their retirement this cycle.

We've updated the 'first look' 2022 Senate map to move Ohio from likely to leans Republican to reflect the lack of an incumbent. Ohio is one of only six states that has a split Senate delegation. Democrat Sherrod Brown is next on the ballot in 2024.  

The 'same since' series of electoral maps lets you see how far back in time each state has voted for a single party in presidential elections. We've updated for the 2020 election where Arizona and Georgia ended a Republican streak dating back to the 1990s.

The timeline goes from 1964 through the 2016 election. 1964 was the first year Washington, D.C. voted in a presidential election. It voted Democratic that year and every election since. The final map, for 2016, shows states that have voted the same in the most recent two elections. It reflects the five states + NE-2 that Joe Biden flipped to win the 2020 presidential election.   

The image links to the 2016 map; you can view the full timeline here.

Punchbowl News reports in its Tuesday morning newsletter that "Democrats Alex Padilla (Calif.), Jon Ossoff (Ga.) and Raphael Warnock (Ga.) will be sworn in as new senators on Wednesday afternoon, according to a Senate source. This will come shortly after Biden and Kamala Harris take their own oaths of office. As VP, Harris is expected to swear in the majority making trio."

For those not familiar, Punchbowl News is a new political news start-up founded by three veterans of Politico. We're finding their free morning edition an invaluable start to the day. You can sign up here.

Kamala Harris resigned from the Senate effective at noon EST Monday. The move comes two days before her inauguration as vice president.  In that role, Harris will become president of the Senate.  This is a largely ceremonial role, but one that it includes the ability to cast tiebreaking votes.  That will take on added importance this year given the chamber's upcoming 50-50 split.   

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has appointed Secretary of State Alex Padilla to serve the final two years of Harris's term. Until he is sworn in the Senate will have 51 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). The Harris seat and one in Georgia formerly held by Republican David Perdue are vacant. Perdue's term ended January 3; he lost a runoff to Democrat Jon Ossoff on January 5. Georgia's other Senate seat will be changing hands as Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler in a special election runoff.