Election News

Losing a State, Winning the Election

January 5, 2015

This table shows the last time a party’s nominee won the presidential election while losing one of the states that has been competitive in recent elections.    To see the year for other states, or to find out other trivia, see 270toWin Answers.

State Democrat Republican
Colorado 1996 1908
Florida 1992 1924
Iowa 1976 2000
Michigan 1976 2004
Nevada 1976 1908
New Hampshire 1976 2004
North Carolina 2012 1956
Ohio 1960 NEVER
Pennsylvania 1948 2004
Virginia 1996 1924
Wisconsin 1960 2004


Headlines From Political Wire

Trump Willing to Delay Border Wall Funding

President Trump signaled “he would be comfortable delaying a fight over a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border until September, possibly averting a government...

Decision Time for Republicans to Avoid a Shutdown

“Republicans are caught in one of their biggest dilemmas of the year: Whether to cross President Donald Trump and ignore his demand for border wall...

Dissatisfaction With Ryan, Congress Is Growing

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that Americans hold dim views of Congress and of House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI). “Nearly three-quarters...

Trump Jokes About Firing Nikki Haley

President Trump joked that if members of the United Nations Security Council don’t like U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley, she “could easily be replaced,”...

Le Pen Steps Down as Party Leader

Marine Le Pen said she’s stepping aside as leader of far-right National Front party as she seeks French presidency in order to “unite all French...

Grimm to Resign at end of Current Congressional Term

December 30, 2014

Rep. Michael Grimm (R), who won re-election to New York's 11th Congressional District in November, will resign that seat effective at the end of the current Congressional term on January 5, 2015. He will not be sworn in as a member of the 114th Congress term that begins next Tuesday, January 6th, 2015.

Grimm plead guilty to a felony count of filing a false tax return on December 23rd, a result that will likely lead to jail time for Grimm.

Once Grimm leaves office, the seat will be vacant until a special election is held.   By New York law, the governor (Andrew Cuomo (D)) will announce a date for a special election, which will be 70 to 80 days after the date he makes the announcement, but no later than next November's general election.  (This time period was extended from 30 to 40 days in 2011, to provide ample time for overseas military personnel to cast their ballots).

Grimm won a third term in Congress in November, defeating Democrat Domenic Recchia by 13%, a surprisingly large margin in this competitive district.  Absent the incumbent, the special election will likely be hard-fought by both parties.

 


WSJ: Civics Instruction Making a Comeback

December 27, 2014

After years on the back burner, civics education is making a comeback in the nation's schools, according to this article from The Wall Street Journal.   This is reversing a trend toward less social studies education, which may have been triggered in part by federal programs such as No Child Left Behind and Race to the Top, which focused heavily on testing well in math and reading.

The article goes on to say that coalitions in a number of states have launched a movement to require students to pass the U.S. citizenship exam before they can graduate.  While well-intentioned, this may fall into the same trap as other programs that just require rote memorization as opposed to, in this case, learning how to be a better citizen and thinking critically about issues.

 


2014 Election Results

December 19, 2014

Aside from a state legislature vote in Vermont to elect a governor (will likely be decided for the incumbent Democrat), the results are now in for all 2014 midterm congressional and governor elections.  Select a link below to view a results map.

 

  • Senate: Republicans gained 9 seats, giving them 54 in the new Senate. To view the new Senate, see our 2015 Senate map.
  • House: Republicans gained 13 seats, giving them 247 in the new House. The last time Republicans had this kind of majority was in the 80th Congress (1947-49), when they held 246 seats. Interestingly, that was the 'Do Nothing' Congress, so-named by Democratic president Harry S. Truman. Republicans lost 75 seats in the subsequent election.
  • Governor: Republicans will control 31 governorships next year, up from 29 this year. Democrats lost 3 seats, with one of those going to an independent in Alaska.

 


2015 Senate Map

December 18, 2014

270toWin has launched its 2015 Senate map, reflecting the 100 Senators to be part of the 114th Congress, which will be seated in early January.  The new Senate will have a Republican majority with 54 seats, up from 45 in the prior Congress.  

The new Congress will include 12 new Senators that won seats in the 2014 election, eleven Republicans and one Democrat.  (Of these, two Republicans and the Democrat replace Senators of the same party.  Removing those yields the +9 Republican gain.)

The map is colored to reflect the party composition of Senators in each state. Hover over (or tap) a state to see its Senators. The table under the map divides the Senate by class  / next election date. For those Senators up in 2016, we list the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball

A party breakdown of those classes can be seen to the right of the map.  Interestingly, each class is currently heavily stacked toward one party or the other. There's no historical reason for this distribution. In fact, with no state's two Senators in the same class, it seems like an unlikely evolution.  Yet that is where we are, and 2016 will have 24 Republican seats up for grabs vs. just 10 currently held by Democrats.

  

     


American Thinker: GOP Needs Hispanic on 2016 Ticket

December 18, 2014

According to this article from American Thinker, a Hispanic candidate will be a major plus, and perhaps the deciding factor, to any GOP effort to win the 2016 presidential election. Beyond Florida, a Hispanic might also help the GOP win in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.  The author believes the party must win at least two of those three states to have a legitimate chance. Several possibilities are noted, with popular Nevada governor Brian Sandoval highlighted as perhaps the best option.

 

 


270toWin Crowdsourced Senate Forecast

November 4, 2014

If 270toWin voters are correct, Republicans will control the Senate with 52 seats, Democrats will have 47 and a third independent will join the body after this year's elections.

Results are based on about 1,500 valid entries to our prediction contest.  Prizes will go to some of those with the best predictions, with the goal being to encourage people to vote based on who they think will win, as opposed to their own personal preferences.

The first image below shows the projected winner in each race; the 2nd the percentage distribution. The closer races in the polls (AK, CO, GA, IA) trended more Republican in recent days. Kansas was the closest race, with Greg Orman remaining slightly ahead in the end.

While this forecast says Georgia and Louisiana will ultimately go Republican, it is worth noting where we'll be after Election Day. If there are runoffs in both Georgia (possible) and Louisiana (very likely), and no decision by Greg Orman on party affiliation, Republicans would have 50 seats heading into the Louisiana runoff, one short of the number needed to officially control the Senate.     

 

 

 


Late Morning Update on Crowdsourced Senate Forecast

November 3, 2014

Republicans will control the Senate with 52 seats, Democrats will have 47 and a third Independent will join the body based on the current forecast of 270toWin users.  

This map is based on about 1,500 valid submissions over the last 6 days through late morning Monday.  Predictions added by midnight tonight will show up in the final results to be published early Tuesday.

The first image below shows the projected winner by state; the 2nd the percentage distribution. The closer states (AK, CO, GA, IA) have been trending Republican in recent days. Kansas continues to be pretty consistent at around 60% for Greg Orman.

While this forecast says Georgia and Louisiana will ultimately go Republican, it is worth noting where we'll be after Election Day. If there are runoffs in both Georgia (possible) and Louisiana (very likely), and no decision by Greg Orman on party affiliation, Republicans would have 50 seats heading into the Louisiana runoff, one short of the number needed to officially control the Senate.     

 

 

 


No Suspense: We Already Know the Party Winners for 77 House Seats

October 31, 2014

Almost 1/5 of the 435 House seats will go uncontested between the two major parties this November based on an analysis by 270toWin. (Underlying data here) 41 are held by Democrats, 36 by Republicans. These seats fall into 3 categories:

  • Uncontested: 32 seats (16 Democrat, 16 Republican) are completely uncontested. This includes 7 of Georgia's 14 Districts and 6 of the 9 in Massachusetts. The incumbent is running in 30 of these races: Phil Gingrey (R) GA-11 opted to run for Senate, while Ralph Hall (R) TX-4 was defeated in his party's primary.
  • No Major Party Opposition: 37 seats (20 Democrat, 17 Republican) pit one major party against one or more 3rd party or independent candidates. While acknowledging that the election hasn't yet occurred, none of these appear to be competitive races. (Two of these districts, LA-2 and LA-3 have multiple candidates from the major party as well as 3rd party/independent opposition, owing to the open primary that will take place on Election Day). 
  • Both Candidates From Same Party: 8 seats (5 Democrat, 3 Republican). 7 of these are from California, 1 from Washington. These states hold 'top two' primaries, where the top two vote getters advance to the general election, regardless of party. 

Data for this review was gathered from and is courtesy of The Green Papers and Wikipedia. If we've missed anything, please let us know.


Rhode Island Primary Results

September 10, 2014

The Rhode Island nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on September 9.   

Governor:  State Treasurer Gina Raimondo defeated Providence Mayor Angel Taveras and Clay Pell to win the Democratic primary.  On the Republican side, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung defeated Ken Block.   This race, to fill the seat of the retiring Lincoln Chafee, leans Democratic as we look toward November, although no general election polling is yet available.

Senate:  Incumbent Jack Reed (D) will meet Marketing Consultant Mark Zaccaria in November; both won uncontested primaries.   Reed is a heavy favorite to be reelected; our Senate simulator currently shows a a <99% probability.

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Both Congressional districts are safely Democratic.

To see the current roster of Rhode Island elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.



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