Election News

Jeb Bush to Announce June 15; Update on Republican Field

June 4, 2015

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is expected to join the crowded 2016 Republican field on June 15, while former Texas Governor Rick Perry will announce today with a launch event scheduled for late morning outside Dallas. 

While polling thus far has not identified a breakout candidate, Bush has been running near the top, while Perry has seen support in the low single digits. There have been several national polls of the Republican field this week.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Announced

Ben Carson May 4 Former neurosurgeon  
Ted Cruz March 23 U.S. Senator, Texas MAP
Carly Fiorina May 4 Former CEO, Hewlett-Packard  
Lindsey Graham June 1 U.S. Senator, South Carolina  
Mike Huckabee May 5 Former Governor, Arkansas MAP
George Pataki May 28 Former Governor, New York  
Rand Paul April 7 U.S. Senator, Kentucky MAP
Rick Perry June 4 Former Governor, Texas  
Marco Rubio April 13 U.S. Senator, Florida MAP
Rick Santorum May 27 Former U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania  

Pending Decision

Jeb Bush June 15 Former Governor, Florida MAP
Bobby Jindal June 24 Governor, Louisiana  
Donald Trump June 16 Businessman  

No Announcement Date Set 

Chris Christie Governor, New Jersey MAP
John Kasich Governor, Ohio  
Scott Walker Governor, Wisconsin MAP

 

 



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The Almanac

...

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More Historical Interactive Maps Launched

June 2, 2015

If you are looking for the map with the drop-down historical elections, it is now available here

As of February, 2016: If you have cookies enabled on your device, any changes to one of the maps discussed below should retain its settings on future visits. Use the Reset Map button to return to historical actual.

====

270toWin continues to roll out a series of historical interactive presidential election maps. Modify results, winners and election participants to change the course of history. 

Interactive electoral maps for 46 out of 57 historical elections are now available, representing the period 1828-2012*.

2012 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992  
1988 1984 1980 1976 1972 1968  
1964 1960 1956 1952 1948 1944  
1940 1936 1932 1928 1924 1920  
1916 1912 1908 1904 1900 1896  
1892 1888 1884 1880 1876 1868  
1864 1860 1856 1852 1848 1844
1840 1836 1832 1828

*Excludes 1872. That maps as well as elections prior to 1828 should be available at a later date.


Poll Shows Five Way Tie in Republican Field

May 28, 2015

A new national poll from Quinnipiac shows a 5-way tie for the lead in a crowded Republican primary field.  Earning 10% support are Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker. As of today, Bush and Walker are not declared candidates. Nine additional Republican hopefuls received at least 1% support. 

The five poll 270toWin average shows Bush with about 13.5% support, with Walker and Rubio each about 1% behind.  Carson and Paul round out the top five.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton received 57%, well ahead of Bernie Sanders who was 2nd at 15%.

Quinnipiac also surveyed general election match-ups between Clinton and eight Republicans.  The former Secretary of State leads all challengers, with Paul and Rubio closest. Each trails Clinton by 4%.  

 

 


Kasich Seems Likely to Run for President

May 27, 2015

Ohio Governor John Kasich is moving rapidly to assemble a team and the financial resources needed to launch a 2016 presidential campaign, the Washington Post reports. He is expected to join the race after June 30.

Kasich will join a crowded Republican field that will gain its 7th candidate today, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. That number may grow to 10 in the next week.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Announced

Ben Carson (Former neurosurgeon)
Ted Cruz (U.S. Senator, Texas)
Carly Fiorina (Former CEO, Hewlett-Packard)
Mike Huckabee (Former Governor, Arkansas)
Rand Paul (U.S. Senator, Kentucky)
Marco Rubio (U.S. Senator, Florida)
Rick Santorum (Former U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania)

Pending Decision (Date of Announcement)

All are expected to run

George Pataki May 28 (Former Governor, New York)
Lindsey Graham June 1 (U.S. Senator, South Carolina)
Rick Perry June 4 (Former Governor, Texas)

No Announcement Date Set

Bush & Walker all but certain to run; at or near the top of

many early polls

Jeb Bush (Former Governor, Florida)
Chris Christie (Governor, New Jersey)
Bobby Jindal (Governor, Louisiana
John Kasich (Governor, Ohio)
Donald Trump (Businessman)
Scott Walker (Governor, Wisconsin)

 

 


Fox News Caps First Republican Debate at 10 Candidates

May 20, 2015

Fox News, host of the first Republican debate of the 2016 presidential campaign, announced today a limit of 10 participants in that debate, the Washington Post reports

The debate is scheduled for August 6, in Cleveland, which is also the host city for the Republican Convention next July.

To qualify, candidates must have filed and declared their candidacy and place in the top ten of an average of the five most recent national polls as of early August. The specific qualifying polls will be determined by Fox News.

270toWin is following the Republican primary polls and, as it happens, we also have a polling average based on the five most recent polls. While the debate is obviously a ways off, the top ten currently are:

  1. Bush  
  2. Walker
  3. Rubio*
  4. Paul*
  5. Carson*
  6. Huckabee*
  7. Cruz*
  8. Christie
  9. Trump
  10. Kasich

Asterisked names have declared their candidacy. Trump and Kasich were not included in all five recent surveys. Perry just missed the cut-off, with Santorum, Jindal, Fiorina* and Graham also not currently in the top ten. 

 


Coming Soon: Historical Interactive Maps

May 18, 2015

Update:  The first three historical maps are available to try out. Let us know if you find any issues or have feedback.

1860 | 1968 | 2000

**Use the comments to let us know if you would find this feature useful and what year(s) you'd like to see first.**

One of the more popular feature requests we get is to have interactive maps for historical presidential elections. There are a lot of fans of alternate history scenarios as well as those that would like to change past electoral maps in a 'what if' kind of way.

Starting with the actual historical election result, you'll be able to modify the winner in each state and the distribution of electoral votes. You'll also be able to make some changes to the names in the race to create alternate scenarios (e.g., what if Robert Kennedy had lived and become the 1968 Democratic nominee)?

In the sample below, we have taken the 1960 election and set Illinois and Texas to undecided, putting Kennedy below the 269 electoral votes needed to win that year*. These two states' results were among many decided by 2% or less that year and were among the more controversial.

 

 

* There were 537 electoral votes in 1960, reflecting the addition of Alaska and Hawaii with 3 electoral votes each. These additions temporarily increased the size of The House from 435 to 437 Members (+100 Senators = 537). The Census reapportionment after 1960 reset the House to the required 435, while the 23rd Amendment gave Washington D.C. electoral representation with 3 electoral votes. As a result, there have been 538 electoral votes available since 1964 (435+100+3), with 270 required to win.


In or Out: Upcoming Presidential Candidate Announcements

May 16, 2015

Several prospective 2016 major party presidential candidates will be making their plans known in the weeks ahead. Here's a summary of those, as well as a list of those that have declared and those that have formed exploratory committees (or similar) but have not made any further announcements regarding their 2016 candidacy. 

May 27: Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (R) is likely to run

May 28: Former New York Governor George Pataki (R) may or may not run

May 30: Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley (D) is expected to run

June 1: South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham (R) is expected to run

June 4: Former Texas Governor Rick Perry (R) is expected to run 

Declared Candidates

Democrat: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders

Republican: Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio 

Exploratory Committee

Democrat: Lincoln Chafee, Jim Webb

Republican: Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Donald Trump, Scott Walker

Update May 18: Bobby Jindal announces the launch of his exploratory committee


Republican 2016 Field to Double in Size

May 4, 2015

A trio of Republicans not currently holding office will formally announce they are running for president early this week. They will join the three sitting Senators (Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio) who previously launched their campaigns. While the new entrants start out with longer odds to be the eventual Republican nominee, each brings a set of attributes that can certainly impact the race.

This will be the 2nd presidential run for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who previously ran in 2008. That year he won the Iowa Republican caucuses and continued his campaign until March, when it became apparent that Arizona Senator John McCain would be that year's Republican nominee. At the national level, Huckabee performs best in states with a larger evangelical Christian population, putting him in a decent position to impact the early caucus/primary states of Iowa and South Carolina. Huckabee is set to announce on Tuesday.

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina joins the race Monday AM. Fiorina is expected to be the only woman in the Republican field and further distinguishes herself from the field with a strong business background. Of the three announcing this week, she is likely to be seen as the most moderate. Fiorina previously ran for Senate in California in 2010, losing to incumbent Barbara Boxer. Fiorina has received minimal support in early polling; it will be interesting to see if that shifts as she becomes more well-known.

Retired neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson made his 2016 announcement Sunday night. The only African-American likely to run for the 2016 Republican nomination, Carson became a star in conservative circles after a well-received speech at the 2013 National Prayer Breakfast. Carson has not previously run for political office. Carson has been receiving about 5% support in early polls and will be competing with Huckabee for many of the same voters.

 


Bernie Sanders to Run for President

April 28, 2015

Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders will challenge Hillary Clinton for the 2016 Democratic nomination, Vermont Public Radio reports. Sanders will make his announcement Thursday via a short statement, followed by a kickoff campaign in Vermont in several weeks.

Sanders provides Clinton with a challenge from the left. Former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley is also considering a run as a progressive challenger to Clinton. Sanders has been polling about 5% in recent Democratic nomination surveys.

Barack Obama won Vermont by over 35% in 2012. (As an aside, while deep blue today, Vermont voted Republican in every election from the founding of the modern party in 1854 through 1988, except for 1964).


Two Polls Show Clinton Leads Despite Majority Finding Her Not Honest And Trustworthy

April 23, 2015

Two polls late this week, from Quinnipiac and Fox News, arrived at roughly the same conclusions.

  • Marco Rubio has edged into the lead in the crowded Republican field
  • Hillary Clinton maintains a single-digit lead over her most likely general election opponents
  • Clinton has this lead despite most finding her not honest and trustworthy

Quinnipiac found that 54% thought Clinton wasn't honest and trustworthy, while 38% thought she was. Fox News was closer, with 51-45% doubting her. These results were worse than most of her prospective opponents. Despite this, she continues to lead the Republican field. The polls found margins of 2-7%.

Full results, as well as other national and state polls can be found on our 2016 polls page.

Turning to the Republican nomination, Marco Rubio led in both polls, showing 15% support in the Quinnipiac poll, 13% in the Fox News survey. Overall the field remains tightly bunched.

It is possible that some of these poll results are a bit distorted by current news: Rubio's recent 2016 announcement and enhanced scrutiny of Clinton since her official announcement. Time will tell.

 

 

 



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