Election News

Republican Primary Polling by State

July 15, 2015

Most recent national Republican polling has shown Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Donald Trump leading the crowded field. However, much like the general election next November, the nomination will be decided more locally, with primary or caucus battles in most states.

That in mind, it is worth keeping an eye on who is leading the Republican polls in each state. The table below shows the current leaders in the four early states, those scheduled to have their primary or caucus events in February. The link above will take you to a page showing who is leading in each state where polling has been conducted, with links to details about the polls and primary/caucus in each state.



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Republican Field Update: Candidates, Maps, Polls, Debates

July 8, 2015

There are 14 formally declared Republican candidates for 2016. Scott Walker and John Kasich are expected to join the field later this month, with former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore saying earlier this week that he will run for president, with a formal announcement early in August.

None of the 17 announced or prospective candidates has broken out; polling remains quite competitive, with many of the so-called long shots leading in one or more states. The dates in the table below reflect the likely date for the 2016 Republican primary or caucus in that state. Those states not shown have not been polled.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Names in bold are in the top 10 of the 270toWin polling average. Fox and CNN, hosts of the first two debates, have announced that qualification will be based on top 10 standings in the polls, based on the respective networks' calculations prior to the debate. CNN will include a separate forum for those that don't make the top 10.

Announced

Jeb Bush June 15 Former Governor, Florida MAP
Chris Christie June 30 Governor, New Jersey MAP 
Ben Carson May 4 Former neurosurgeon  
Ted Cruz March 23 U.S. Senator, Texas MAP
Carly Fiorina May 4 Former CEO, Hewlett-Packard  
Lindsey Graham June 1 U.S. Senator, South Carolina  
Mike Huckabee May 5 Former Governor, Arkansas MAP
Bobby Jindal June 24 Governor, Louisiana  
John Kasich July 21 Governor, Ohio  
George Pataki May 28 Former Governor, New York  
Rand Paul April 7 U.S. Senator, Kentucky MAP
Rick Perry June 4 Former Governor, Texas  
Marco Rubio April 13 U.S. Senator, Florida MAP
Rick Santorum May 27 Former U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania  
Donald Trump June 16 Businessman  

Launch Pending

John Kasich July 21 Governor, Ohio  
Scott Walker July 13  Governor, Wisconsin MAP  
Jim Gilmore Early Aug. Former Governor, Virginia  

 


2016 Primary and Caucus Calendar Update

July 6, 2015

The 2016 presidential election calendar is starting to take shape. The upcoming 'season' will be much shorter than in 2012. No events will occur in January, and both parties will have a nominee by the end of July. In 2012, the Iowa caucuses took place in early January, and the conventions took place in late August and early September.

Republican rules for 2016 prohibit primaries and caucuses in January, with only 4 states allowed to hold February contests. March events that take place prior to the 15th must award delegates proportionately, while those thereafter can allocate as they see fit, although many are expected to use a winner-take-all approach. The net effect is that going early provides a state more visibility, but if the field remains crowded, it may be the states that wait that have the greatest impact in deciding the 2016 nominee.

Democratic rules require proportional allocation of delegates. In a less-competitive nominating race, as 2016 appears to be, this provides some delegate visibility for secondary candidates. 

A few highlights on the calendar follow. Some of these dates are subject to change. A number of debates are scheduled prior to the first contests. 

February: Iowans will caucus on February 1, followed by the New Hampshire primary on the 9th. A Nevada source has told us that their caucuses will be on the 20th, with the South Carolina primary on the 27th, although we have seen some other dates mentioned. 

Early March: A southern regional primary is taking shape for March 1 with participating states expected to include Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. North Carolina may also join in, although they are a bit more tentative at this point. This structure may benefit more conservative hopefuls like Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee, while Texas could be critical to Senator Ted Cruz. About 10 other states will also hold contests during the first two weeks of the month.

March 15: The first date where winner-take-all delegate allocation will be allowed on the Republican side is expected to see contests in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and Ohio. Depending on how the early states shake out, Florida may prove pivotal to the future aspirations of home-state candidates Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. The prospects of Ohio governor John Kasich (expected to join the race July 21), may hinge on whether he can keep his campaign going through the generally more conservative earlier states.

Follow the Republican and Democratic primaries on 270toWin. Current info includes national polls, with links to state-specific polling where it is available. As more information becomes available, we'll add a full calendar with delegate information and, as the events take place, results.

The 2016 presidential election will take place on November 8, 2016.

 


Walker Continues to Lead Iowa Caucus Polling

July 1, 2015

Scott Walker, governor of neighboring Wisconsin, continues to lead in polling for the 2016 Iowa Republican Caucus. The latest poll, out today from Quinnipiac gives Mr. Walker 18%, ahead of Ben Carson and Donald Trump with 10%. Another 13 prospective nominees polled split the remaining 60% or so.

Interestingly, while Mr. Walker leads, he is one of only two Republicans polled that has not yet officially joined the race. Both he and Ohio Governor John Kasich are expected to declare their intentions to run later in July. 

Businessman Donald Trump continues to see a sizeable bump from his mid-June campaign launch, tying for 2nd in the Iowa poll. He has placed in the top 3 in recent polls from MichiganKentucky and New Hampshire, as well as nationally. If this trend continues, it may be one of the more interesting stories as we head toward the first Republican debate in August.


As June Ends, Chris Christie Joins 2016 Republican Field

June 29, 2015

New Jersey governor Chris Christie will join a crowded 2016 Republican field as he announces his candidacy for president tomorrow in Livingston, NJ. His campaign website is already live

Christie will be the 14th Republican to formally announce. He is averaging about 4% in the 270toWin polling average, well back of the leaders, but within the top 10 that would qualify for the first Republican debate in August.

Ohio governor John Kasich is expected to join the field on July 21. No formal date has been announced for Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, but a July 13 date has been rumored. Once these two join the campaign, the field of major Republican contenders may be set at 16.. That number will likely decrease quickly after the first primaries and caucuses next winter.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Names in bold are in the top 10 of the 270toWin polling average. (Fox and CNN, hosts of the first two debates, have announced that qualification will be based on top 10 standings in the polls, based on the respective networks' calculations prior to the debate. CNN will include a separate forum for those that don't make the top 10.

Announced

Jeb Bush June 15 Former Governor, Florida MAP
Chris Christie June 30 Governor, New Jersey MAP 
Ben Carson May 4 Former neurosurgeon  
Ted Cruz March 23 U.S. Senator, Texas MAP
Carly Fiorina May 4 Former CEO, Hewlett-Packard  
Lindsey Graham June 1 U.S. Senator, South Carolina  
Mike Huckabee May 5 Former Governor, Arkansas MAP
Bobby Jindal June 24 Governor, Louisiana  
John Kasich July 21 Governor, Ohio  
George Pataki May 28 Former Governor, New York  
Rand Paul April 7 U.S. Senator, Kentucky MAP
Rick Perry June 4 Former Governor, Texas  
Marco Rubio April 13 U.S. Senator, Florida MAP
Rick Santorum May 27 Former U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania  
Donald Trump June 16 Businessman  

Pending Decision (Almost definitely running)

Scott Walker July 13 (tentative) Governor, Wisconsin MAP  

No Announcement Date Set 

Other possible (although unlikely) entrants include former Maryland governor Bob Ehrlich, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, and Rep. Peter King of New York.   


Bobby Jindal to Join 2016 Race; Christie May be Next

June 24, 2015

Despite polling under 1%, Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal will become the 13th Republican to officially launch a 2016 campaign for the party's presidential nomination. The announcement will take place late this afternoon at the Pontchartrain Center in Kenner.

Chris Christie may announce his candidacy as early as next week. The New Jersey governor has been polling about 5%, currently good enough to include him in the top 10 for the first debate in August, but well off the mid-teens support seen by Jeb Bush and Scott Walker.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Names in bold are in the top 10 of the 270toWin polling average

Announced

Jeb Bush June 15 Former Governor, Florida MAP
Ben Carson May 4 Former neurosurgeon  
Ted Cruz March 23 U.S. Senator, Texas MAP
Carly Fiorina May 4 Former CEO, Hewlett-Packard  
Lindsey Graham June 1 U.S. Senator, South Carolina  
Mike Huckabee May 5 Former Governor, Arkansas MAP
Bobby Jindal June 24 Governor, Louisiana  
George Pataki May 28 Former Governor, New York  
Rand Paul April 7 U.S. Senator, Kentucky MAP
Rick Perry June 4 Former Governor, Texas  
Marco Rubio April 13 U.S. Senator, Florida MAP
Rick Santorum May 27 Former U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania  
Donald Trump June 16 Businessman  

Pending Decision (All likely to run)

Chris Christie Early July Governor, New Jersey  MAP 
John Kasich Early July Governor, Ohio  
Scott Walker July 13 (tentative) Governor, Wisconsin MAP

No Announcement Date Set 

Other possible (although unlikely) entrants include former Maryland governor Bob Ehrlich, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, and Rep. Peter King of New York.   


With a Caveat, Bush Leads Republican Field in Latest Poll

June 22, 2015

Jeb Bush receives 22% support, more than any of the 15 other Republicans included in the latest NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll. Scott Walker received 17% and Marco Rubio 14%, while Ben Carson saw 11%. Other candidates receiving 5% or more included Mike Huckabee (9%), Rand Paul (7%) and Rick Perry (5%). 

However: This is the first time Bush has exceeded 20% since early May when the last NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll gave him a similar 23%. In 9 intervening polls, conducted by a variety of organizations, Bush did not receive more than 15%. It is also worth noting that both of these polls have a very small sample size of about 250 Republicans, yielding a margin of error greater +/- 6%.

Who is right - NBC/WSJ or everyone else? We'll never really know since nobody is actually voting until early 2016 (and there is no national primary). 270toWin has a page that includes an average of the most recent Republican primary polls, and this shows Bush in a virtual tie with Walker, with Carson & Rubio tied for 3rd.


Fifth Time's the Charm: Donald Trump Running for President

June 16, 2015

Businessman Donald Trump is entering the 2016 presidential race, becoming the 12th Republican to vie for that party's nomination. He made the announcement late this morning at Trump Tower, part of his self-reported $9 billion net worth.

This is the fifth time Trump has considered running for president, but the first time he has launched a formal campaign. He previously floated the idea in 1988, 2000, 2004 and 2012.   

Trump has polled around 5% when included in 2016 Republican nomination surveys. That puts him in a group that includes New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Texas Governor Rick Perry. More importantly, if this ranking holds, it places him within the top 10 candidates that will qualify for the first Republican debate this August.

An update on the Republican field follows. On the Democratic side the four announced candidates are former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee and former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley. Unlike the tightly bunched Republican field, Mrs. Clinton has a commanding lead in Democratic nomination polling.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Announced

Jeb Bush June 15 Former Governor, Florida MAP
Ben Carson May 4 Former neurosurgeon  
Ted Cruz March 23 U.S. Senator, Texas MAP
Carly Fiorina May 4 Former CEO, Hewlett-Packard  
Lindsey Graham June 1 U.S. Senator, South Carolina  
Mike Huckabee May 5 Former Governor, Arkansas MAP
George Pataki May 28 Former Governor, New York  
Rand Paul April 7 U.S. Senator, Kentucky MAP
Rick Perry June 4 Former Governor, Texas  
Marco Rubio April 13 U.S. Senator, Florida MAP
Rick Santorum May 27 Former U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania  
Donald Trump June 16 Businessman  

Pending Decision

Bobby Jindal June 24 Governor, Louisiana  

No Announcement Date Set 

Chris Christie Governor, New Jersey MAP
John Kasich Governor, Ohio  
Scott Walker Governor, Wisconsin MAP

 

 


Jeb Bush Officially Launches 2016 Campaign

June 15, 2015

Jeb Bush became the 15th person to formally launch a 2016 presidential campaign today, with an announcement at Miami Dade College. The former Florida governor is the 11th Republican in the race; with 4 so far on the Democratic side.

While Bush is polling relatively well, he has not broken out from the pack in a crowded Republican field. He trails likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton if we look at the national polls or the electoral map based on polls.

In somewhat related news, Donald Trump is expected to make his 2016 plans known tomorrow.  


2016 Senate, House, Governor Interactive Maps Launched

June 10, 2015

270toWin has launched interactive maps for 2016 Congressional elections in the House and Senate, as well as 2015-16 elections for governor. The maps let you create your own forecasts and compare them to those from the political analytsts at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. 

As we get closer to 2016, we expect to bring in additional content, including more detailed information (candidates, polls) on each race that is forecast to be competitive.

Senate: Republicans currently control the Senate, with 54 of the 100 seats. 34 seats are up in 2016, of which 24 are held by Republicans. Democrats will need to gain four or five seats to take the majority. A four seat gain creates a 50-50 tie, with the tie-breaker going to the Vice-President. Since we don't know which party will win the 2016 presidential election, the map lets you make that projection to break the tie. 

House: Republicans also control the House, with a 246-188 advantage. One vacancy, in Illinois' 18th District, will be filled on September 10. That seat is likely to remain in Republican control. The table below the House map initially displays all races expected to be competitive. Click or tap a state to see/modify all the Districts for that state.

Governor: Three states will choose a governor in 2015, with another 12 going to the polls in 2016. Republicans currently control 31 governorships to 18 for the Democrats. Alaska governor Bill Walker is an independent.

 

 



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