A new Virginia poll by the University of Mary Washington shows Ben Carson leading Donald Trump 29-24% among likely Republican voters and Hillary Clinton up 63% to 27% over Bernie Sanders among likely Democratic voters. Virginia's primary is scheduled for March 1, part of a Super Tuesday of mostly southern states.
The poll also looked at the November election, but with a twist. All the surveyed match-ups, except one, included former Virginia Senator Jim Webb running as an independent. Webb withdrew from the Democratic field on October 20th, indicating at the time that he could return to the race unaffiliated with any party. No subsequent announcements have been made, although Webb's website is posting articles that would make one think he's giving it serious consideration.
In the four match-ups surveyed, Webb received anywhere from 12-20% of the vote, in all cases larger than the difference between the two major party candidates. While these numbers would undoubtedly change were Webb to run, he could potentially tip the outcome in what was one of only four states to be decided by 5% or less in 2012 and thus the former Senator could have an outsized influence in who becomes our next president. (Virginia voting history).
The University did a 5th 3-way test, pitting Jeb Bush against Hillary Clinton, with Donald Trump running as an independent. Clinton easily won that match-up with 42% of the vote, with Trump (27%) and Bush (24%) nearly splitting the rest of the pie.
The second of six sanctioned Democratic debates will take place Saturday night at Drake University in Des Moines. Hosted by CBS News and The Des Moines Register, the debate will be televised by CBS at 9 P.M. ET, moderated by John Dickerson, host of Face the Nation. Dickerson has indicated his focus will be on the economy, particularly stagnant wages for the middle class and the increasing costs for health care and education.
The three remaining Democrats in the field: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders & Martin O'Malley are all expected to participate.
The Saturday night timing of the debate will likely keep viewership down, and that may be intentional on the part of the Democratic National Committee, which has been previously criticized for the small number of events.
Looking at the state of the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton remains well ahead of Bernie Sanders nationally and in Iowa. Martin O'Malley continues to garner little support, although he did see a best-to-date total of 5% in this week's CBS News/NY Times poll.
814 total votes were recorded. After eliminating obvious duplicates, 744 were used. The order of finish was the same as in our preliminary results this morning; there were some minor percentage changes.
The next Republican debate is scheduled for December 15 in Las Vegas. It will be hosted by CNN.
More than 50% of those participating in our overnight snap poll thought Donald Trump won the Fox Business main stage debate last night. Marco Rubio was a distant second with 16%. Trump and Rubio were also 1-2 in the recent CNBC debate, although a much closer 39% to 22%. Rand Paul had a better night according to our respondents, coming in 3rd at 10%; he had a lackluster 3% in the prior debate.
Only 4% thought Ben Carson, roughly tied with Trump in the national Republican polls, won the debate. Coming in dead last out of the eight participants was Jeb Bush.
Thanks to everyone that participated in our overnight snap poll. While we eliminated obvious duplicate votes from the results, we do want to note that this is just a response by those that chose to participate, and not a random sample.
The fourth Republican Debate will take place on Tuesday at the Milwaukee Theatre in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Hosted by Fox Business and The Wall Street Journal, the main event will begin at 9 P.M. ET, preceded at 7 P.M. by a forum for those that didn't qualify for the main stage. The debate will be telecast by Fox Business Network and moderated by Maria Bartiromo and Neil Cavuto of that network, along with WSJ Editor-in-Chief Gerard Baker.
Tuesday is exactly 52 weeks until the 2016 presidential election which will take place on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. (2016 Election Calendar)
Eight candidates qualified for this debate, with Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee not qualifying based on the 2.5% polling support cut-off set by the sponsors. Relegated to the earlier forum, these two will square off against Bobby Jindal and Rick Santorum. Not invited at all were Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki. As with previous debates, there has been no shortage of controvsery about the qualifying criteria. It is probably more justified in this case due to the limited number of polls included in the average as well as the polls chosen for inclusion. (One could argue Fox Business chose polls to get the results they wanted). In any case, as we've noted before (see last couple paragraphs), choosing participants based on national polls and miniscule differences in polling is illogical.
For those unfamiliar, Fox Business Network can be found in HD on Dish Network channel 206, DIRECTV channel 359, FiOS channel 617 and U-verse channel 1211. For other providers, including cable, use this Fox Business search tool.
Donald Trump leads Ben Carson 25% to 23% in a new poll from CNN | ORC. While well within the margin of error, this is the 2nd poll this week that has seen Trump with a small lead. This sharply contrasts with several late October polls that had seen Carson pull ahead by almost 10%. Carson remains ahead in the 270toWin Iowa polling average as a result of those earlier margins, but this could be one situation where the average isn't telling the whole story. Time will tell.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio continue to make up the 2nd tier in Iowa, and are essentially tied for 3rd. Taken together, the four candidates at the head of the Republican field are now receiving over 70% share.
On the Democratic side, CNN | ORC found Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders 55% to 37%, slightly tighter than other recent Iowa Democratic polls.
The Iowa Caucuses are 87 days out on February 1, 2016.
In the latest poll from Fox News, Donald Trump leads Ben Carson by 3 points, 26% to 23%, with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz tied for 3rd at 11%. These four continue to break away from the field. Trump and Carson are virtually tied at 25% in the 270toWin average of recent polls. Rubio and Cruz are still well back of the two frontrunners, but have seen their numbers slowly climb in recent polls.
Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul all received 4% in the Fox poll.
The next Republican debate, hosted by Fox Business Network and the Wall Street Journal, will take place next Tuesday, November 10th in Milwaukee. As with prior events, there will be a main event (8PM ET) and an earlier debate for those that don't make the cut. Fox Business has previously said that candidates must have a 2.5% average in the four most recent polls through today to make the main stage.
We don't know which polls Fox will use, but it looks like Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee's 4% will be enough to keep them in the main debate; Chris Christie may fall just short. The official lineup is expected to be announced tomorrow evening.
Republican Phil Bryant was releected governor of Mississippi tonight, easily fending off challengers from the Democratic and Reform parties.
In Kentucky, businessman Matt Bevin won a surprisingly easy victory over the state's Attorney General, Jack Conway. Bevin outperformed the polls, which had shown either a dead heat or a small lead for Conway.
Louisiana will conduct a runoff for governor on November 21st. Unlike the above races won by Republicans, Democrat Jon Bel Edwards seems to be taking the lead against Senator David Vitter.
A number of mayoral races took place today. Democrat Jennifer Roberts won in Charlotte as did James Kenney in Philadelphia. Democrat Joe Hogsett was victorious in Indianapolis. Houston and San Francisco, among many other cities, will also elect a mayor tonight.
Richard Nugent, the U.S. Representative from Florida's 11th District, today became the 24th current member of the U.S. House to announce they will not seek reelection in 2016. Nugent is the 5th of Florida's 27 representatives to leave; but the first to retire. The other 4 are running for the Florida Senate seat being vacated by Marco Rubio in 2016.
Harvard Law professor Larry Lessig, running primarily on reforming campaign finance, today ended his long-shot bid for the Democratic nomination.
In announcing his withdrawal via YouTube, Lessig cited a last-minute shift in Democratic Party debate rules that basically made it impossible for him to qualify to participate. Lessig went Absent that forum, his campaign would be unable to get the visibility necessary to compete effectively and it would be unfair to ask people to continue to give of their time and money.
Lessig was receiving minimal support in national polls and may not have even qualified on the prior rules. However, he was starting to see small support (about 1%) in some recent New Hampshire and Iowa polls.
The next Democratic forum will be this Friday, November 6th, at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina. It will start at 8PM ET and be hosted by MSNBC. This event is not technically a debate; it is expected to feature moderator Rachel Maddow speaking conversationally with each of the three remaining Democrats (Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley)
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