Election News

Connecticut, Kansas and Washington finalized their congressional redistricting last week. Minnesota was completed Tuesday. These shapes, with initial ratings, have been added to the House Interactive Map.

On Tuesday, we are following five special elections. Voters will fill vacancies in two New York State Assembly districts. Across the country, there are two contests for vacancies in the California State Assembly. These are technically primaries, although at least one of them will not require a general election. Finally, Milwaukee voters will begin the process of electing a new mayor via a nonpartisan primary.

New York State Assembly Districts 60 and 72

The lower chamber of the New York Legislature is dominated by Democrats, who currently hold 104 of 150 seats. There are 43 Republicans and 1 Independence Party member. The two vacancies will be filled in Tuesday's special election. Both are safely Democratic seats in New York City.

Assembly members serve two year terms. The next regularly scheduled elections are in November. Those will be contested under redistricted boundaries.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

Rep. Kathleen Rice (NY-04) will not seek reelection this year. In her 4th term, Rice becomes the 30th Democratic House member to retire or seek another office. 

As I turn to the next chapter of my own personal and professional story, I do so with profound thanks to the community leaders, colleagues and staff who have lived our shared commitment to service with courage and humility. pic.twitter.com/GBVvtrWpia

— Kathleen Rice (@RepKathleenRice) February 15, 2022

New York's 4th district includes parts of Nassau County on Long Island. The current boundaries are shown in the image below; there was very little change in redistricting. Joe Biden has  a roughly 12% 2020 margin over Donald Trump in both the old and new map. The consensus rating is Likely Democratic.

Of the four congressional districts largely or entirely in Long Island, only Republican Andrew Garbarino is seeking another term. In addition to Rice's retirement, Republican Lee Zeldin (NY-01) and Democrat Tom Suozzi (NY-03) are running for governor.

This week, maps for Kansas and Washington were enacted into law. The shapes for those states will be added to the House Interactive Map in the days ahead. 11 states, with 113 districts, have yet to finalize their plans for the next decade. All of them are in the Eastern or Central time zone. 

In Kansas, the Republican-controlled Legislature overrode a veto by Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. The new map redistricts part of Kansas City out of District 3, endangering the reelection prospects Sharice Davids, the lone Democrat in the state's delegation.

In Washington, the Legislature approved a new map, after making very minor changes to a map approved by the state's redistricting commission in November. The new map does not significantly alter the competitive balance in the state.

February 9, 2022 marks 1,000 days until the 2024 presidential election, which is scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. 

There are 272 days until the November 8 midterm elections.

We're following two elections this Tuesday. Overview and live results below.

Oklahoma City Mayor

Oklahoma City is the 22nd largest city in the United States,^{1 1}City rankings are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. with a population of just over 681,000.  The mayor is David Holt, who is seeking a second four-year term. 

In a 5-4 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court reinstated Alabama's previously enacted congressional map, allowing it to be used for the state's upcoming primary election and the November midterm elections.

The Justices issued a stay on a January 24 preliminary injunction by a lower court. 

While Alabama's new map is little changed from the one in place for the past decade, the earlier ruling had said that it likely violated the Voting Rights Act. Under the plan, Black voters would only having the opportunity to elect one representative of their choice, despite comprising 27% of the population. 

On Friday, the North Carolina Supreme Court ruled the state's new congressional map was a partisan gerrymander that violated the State Constitution. It ordered that map, as well as those created for the General Assembly to be redrawn.

The Republican-controlled legislature had passed all the maps in early November. Although the state has a Democratic governor, the office has no veto power over the process.

As reported by the Charlotte Observer, the process from here will be under a tight timeline:

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has signed the state's new congressional map into law, one day after the plan was approved by the Democratic-controlled state Legislature. The new map has national implications, singlehandedly improving Democratic prospects to keep control of the U.S. House.

Democrats currently hold a 19-8 margin in the House delegation. As we wrote the other day, the new map will leave the Party well-positioned to gain up to three additional seats.  Those GOP-held Districts are 1 (Long Island), 11 (Staten Island), and 22 (Central New York). The state is also losing a district meaning Democrats could control as many as 22 of 26 seats next year. For a more granular look at the state of play in each new district, see these analyses by David Wasserman for The Cook Political Report ($) and Harrison Lavelle for SplitTicket.

The New York shapes have been added to the House Interactive map. 

Hawaii

The Aloha State has a new congressional map, after the state's Reapportionment Commission approved it on Friday. As expected, the changes made were extremely minor, shifting a few thousand people from District 1 to 2. The new map has been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map. 

14 states, with 146 districts, are still to be drawn. This includes 22 districts in Ohio and Alabama, where previously enacted maps have been thrown out by the courts. Florida (28 districts) and New York (26) are the largest states remaining. As we'll discuss next, New York may have a new map by the end of the week.