Election News

Polling Update for March 5 Through March 8 Primary and Caucus Events

March 3, 2016

Update March 7: For the latest info on the March 8 events, we've created this separate article.

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Update March 4: There have been a few more polls since we wrote this yesterday (Thursday). Two changes worth noting:

In Michigan, new polls have pushed Trump's average up into the mid 30s, with Cruz also moving up slightly. A poll today gave Kasich 18%, his strongest showing to date. As Michigan is the largest delegate prize for both parties in the days ahead, expect to see several more polls before Tuesday. (Likely Trump)

Additionally, we have our first Kansas Republican poll with a decent sample size. It gives Trump a 6 point lead over Cruz, with Rubio well back in 3rd. (Leaning Trump).

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After Super Tuesday, Donald Trump has approximately 25% of the 1,237 delegates needed for the Republican nomination, while Hillary Clinton is approaching 45% of the 2,382 needed for the Democratic nomination; Clinton's count has benefited from the heavy support of Democratic superdelegates.

The next two debates will occur in Michigan. Republicans (except for Ben Carson) debate tonight in Detroit (Fox News, 9PM ET); Democrats do the same in Flint on Sunday (CNN, 8PM ET).

A summary of upcoming events and polling. Click/tap a state for more details. 

Republican

March 5

Kansas (Caucus, 40 delegates): No polling available*; Cruz won nearby Oklahoma primary on Super Tuesday

Kentucky (Caucus, 46): A late February poll had Trump leading Rubio, with Cruz third (Likely Trump)

Louisiana (Primary, 46): A new poll has Trump well ahead of Cruz, with Rubio third (Likely Trump)

Maine (Caucus, 23): No polling available; Trump easily won Massachusetts on Super Tuesday but had a narrow win in Vermont; Kasich finished 2nd in both states

March 6 

Puerto Rico (Primary, 23): No polling available

March 8

Hawaii (Caucus, 19): No polling available  Idaho (Primary, 32): No polling available

Michigan (Primary, 59): Recent polls have Trump averaging in the low 30's, about equal to combined support for Rubio & Cruz. Expect these two, along with Kasich, to battle for 2nd (Likely Trump)

Mississippi (Primary, 40): A poll out today gives Trump 41%, well ahead of Cruz & Rubio (Likely Trump)

Democrat

March 5

Kansas (Caucus, 37 delegates); Nebraska (Caucus, 30 delegates): No polling available*; Sanders won 'nearby' Oklahoma primary on Super Tuesday as well as the two mainland caucus states (Colorado, Minnesota) that day

Louisiana (Primary, 59): Clinton far ahead in two recent polls; one this week had Sanders at 14%, which is below the 15% threshold to receive any delegates (Solid Clinton)

March 6

Maine (Caucus, 30): No polling available; Sanders easily won his home state of Vermont on Super Tuesday, while Massachusetts was extremely competitive

March 8

Michigan (Primary, 147): Easily the biggest Democratic delegate prize during this period. Recent polls have shown an increasing lead for Clinton; now averaging 20 points over Sanders (Likely Clinton)

Mississippi (Primary, 41): A poll out today gives Clinton 65% to Sanders 11%. As in Louisiana, Sanders could be at risk of being shut out of delegates (Solid Clinton) 

* A very small sample Kansas poll was conducted by the Docking Institute at Fort Hays State University in late February. It showed Trump at about 25%, Rubio & Cruz in the mid-teens. Clinton had a lead over Sanders. Lots of undecided. Due to the small sample size, and in the absence of any other polling, caution should be exercised in relying too heavily on this data.



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Carson will not attend Thursday's debate, will discuss future during CPAC speech Friday

March 2, 2016

Dr. Ben Carson "doesn't see a political path forward", CNN is reporting. Carson will not participate in Thursday's Republican debate in Detroit and will discuss his future during a CPAC speech on Friday. 

A statement to this effect appears on the Carson campaign website.

Carson won just 3 delegates on Super Tuesday and those were associated with a 5th place finish in Virginia. Once near the top of the polls, Carson saw most of his support evaporate (often to the benefit of Ted Cruz) late in 2015.


Clinton Increases Delegate Lead After Super Tuesday While Sanders Gains Several Wins

March 2, 2016

Hillary Clinton pushed past 1,000 delegates after a Super Tuesday performance that had her easily winning 6 of eleven Democratic contests. As expected, Massachusetts was tight; Clinton prevailed there for her 7th win. The other 4 states were taken by Bernie Sanders, as he won the caucus states of Colorado and Minnesota as well as Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont.  While the Vermont allocation is small, Clinton was likely held under 15%, meaning she will receive none of the state's delegates.

Here's how the delegate count looks as of this morning; some changes are likely. Much of Clinton's overall delegate lead owes to the commitment of superdelegates; party insiders whose vote is independent of the primary and caucus contests. 2,382 (or 2,383 - it is a bit unclear) delegates are needed to win the nomination.  

The info above is sourced from the New York Times. The next Democratic contests are this Saturday, with a primary in Louisiana and caucuses in Kansas and Nebraska. The Maine Democratic caucus is Sunday afternoon, with a debate that night in Flint, Michigan, moderated by CNN.


Super Tuesday Republican Recap

March 2, 2016

Donald Trump strengthened his status as Republican frontrunner on Super Tuesday, winning 7 of the night's eleven contests. Trump swept the Southeastern states of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennesssee, as well as New England (Massachusetts and Vermont) and Virginia. Ted Cruz won his home state of Texas, neighboring Oklahoma and Alaska. Marco Rubio got his first victory of the campaign, winning the Minnesota caucus.

Here's how the delegate count looks as of this morning, with the caveat that many of the night's delegates have still not been allocated. For example, Texas has 155 delegates, only 77 of them have awarded to this point. The remainder of the delegates (in all states) are likely pending final results in individual Congressional Districts. 

The info above is sourced from the New York Times. Trump now has 285 of the 1,237 delegates needed to nominate. The next Republican contests are this Saturday, with a primary in Louisiana and caucuses in Kansas, Kentucky and Maine. Prior to that, the remaining candidates will convene in Detroit for a 9PM ET debate on Fox. The moderators are Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace. Trump is expected to attend; recall he skipped the last Fox-moderated debate due to his ongoing feud with Kelly. 


Super Tuesday Results

March 1, 2016

Summary of what we know so far. Click links for delegate info

9PM Closings

Clinton wins Texas

Cruz wins Texas

830PM Closings

Clinton wins Arkansas

Trump wins Arkansas

8PM Closings

Trump wins Massachusetts, Alabama, Tennessee

Clinton wins Alabama Tennessee 

Clinton/Sanders Massachusetts too close to call

Cruz wins Oklahoma,  Democrat too close to call

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Clinton wins Georgia 

Clinton wins Virginia 

Sanders wins Vermont 

Trump wins Georgia 

Trump wins Virginia 

Trump/Kasich - Vermont Too Close to Call

Clinton wins American Samoa  


Final Super Tuesday Republican Polling Averages

March 1, 2016

Donald Trump looks poised to win seven of the eight Super Tuesday states where recent polling is available, with Ted Cruz the favorite to win Texas, home to the largest delegate prize. Marco Rubio has the most consistent support across the states and that should be good enough for a 2nd or 3rd place everywhere.

 

The most recent Arkansas poll is from early February. It is unfortunate that there hasn't been any polling since, as this could end up being the day's most competitive primary. No recent polling is available in the caucus states.

Delegate allocation is somewhat proportional in all the Super Tuesday states, with many states offering delegates based both on the statewide result and the result within each Congressional District. As a result, while Trump is likely to win the most delegates today, Rubio and Cruz will get their share.


CNN Poll Highlights a Primary vs. November Paradox

March 1, 2016

Super Tuesday is underway; a day that is likely to see Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton further cement their status as their respective party's likely nominees. (Super Tuesday Republican and Democratic polling update).

A new CNN | ORC poll for the general election shows that intra-party dominance doesn't extend to the general election. (We've noticed this for the last several months, but it is particularly obvious now that the number of likely match-ups has decreased).

 

Bernie Sanders easily defeats all three Republicans sampled, and significantly outperforms Clinton in each case. In the most extreme case, Cruz leads Clinton by one while Sanders beats him by 17 points. 

Looking at it from the Republican side, Trump is easily beaten by either Clinton or Sanders, while Rubio and Cruz have a small lead over Clinton. Rubio outperforms Trump against either opponent.

Some of these differences can likely be attributed to the fact that Sanders is viewed much more favorably than Clinton (57% favorable for Sanders, 42% for Clinton in the poll) and that Clinton and Trump had the highest unfavorables (55% and 60%, respectively). 


Clinton vs. Sanders: A Super Tuesday Polling Update

February 28, 2016

Four contests are in the books; Hillary Clinton leads the delegate count 91-65 in those; she has a much larger lead of 544-85 when superdelegates are included. 2,382 delegates are needed to secure the nomination. 

Super Tuesday is less than two days out; over 20% of Democratic delegates will be up for grabs that day. Here's a very quick update on the polling in each state. Democratic primaries generally follow the same proportional allocation formula, allocating some statewide, some by Congressional District, with a 15% minimum threshold. As a result, except perhaps for Vermont, both Clinton and Sanders will likely earn some delegates in each contest.

In the list below, the delegate numbers are totals for the Democratic Convention, they may not all get allocated on Super Tuesday. Select a state for details. For a one-page look at who is leading each of the Democratic contests, not just those on Super Tuesday, go here.

Alabama (Primary, 60 delegates): Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 28 points in the PPP poll out mid-month (Solid Clinton)

Arkansas (Primary, 37): Clinton up 25 in a PPP poll (Solid Clinton)

Colorado (Caucus, 79): No recent polling; delegates won't actually be awarded until a later date

Georgia (Primary, 116): Clinton polling mid-60s in recent polls (Solid Clinton)

Massachusetts (Primary, 116): Neighbor state to Sanders home; if polling is correct this will likely be the closest Democratic battle on Super Tuesday (Toss-up) 

Minnesota (Caucus, 93): A late January poll showed Clinton up by 34 points (Solid Clinton)

Oklahoma (Primary, 42): The most recent poll had Clinton up just two, while others give her a much larger lead (Leans Clinton)

Tennessee (Primary, 76): Clinton up by 26 in two recent polls (Solid Clinton)

Texas (Primary, 252): The most recent polls have Clinton up by 20-30 points (Likely Clinton)

Vermont (Primary, 26): No contest here; Sanders leads his home state by about 70 points; may keep Clinton under 15% and win all the state's delegates (Solid Sanders)

Virginia (Primary, 110): The polls are a bit varied, but Clinton leads by at least 12 points; average is almost 20 points (Likely Clinton)

March 1 will also see the American Samoa territorial caucus, with 10 total delegates. 


Two Days Out: Super Tuesday Republican Polling Update

February 28, 2016

Super Tuesday is less than 48 hours away, with contests being held in 13 states on March 1. This will be the busiest date of the Republican nominating calendar. Here's a very quick update on the polling in each state. Note that most delegates on this date will be allocated proportionately, either based on the statewide result, or some combination of statewide and each Congressional District. There is also usually a minimum threshold to claim any delegates. 

Click/tap a state for more details:

Alabama (Primary, 50 delegates): Two recent polls had Trump averaging 37%, Cruz and Rubio below 20% (Likely Trump)

Alaska (Caucus, 28): A January poll showed Trump & Cruz separated by 4 points (Toss-up)

Arkansas (Primary, 40): A poll earlier this month had Cruz, Trump & Rubio within 4 points (Toss-up)

Colorado (Caucus, 37): No recent polling; delegates won't actually be awarded until a later date

Georgia (Primary, 76): Several polls out this past week had Trump well ahead; Cruz & Rubio tight for 2nd. The state offers the 2nd most Republican delegates on Super Tuesday (Likely Trump)

Massachusetts (Primary, 42): Recent polls have Trump averaging in the mid-40s; Rubio & Kasich fighting for 2nd (Solid Trump)

Minnesota (Caucus, 38): A late January poll showed a pretty close 3-way race with Rubio, Cruz & Trump (Toss-up)

Oklahoma (Primary, 43): Trump appears to hold a small lead over a surging Rubio and neighboring state Senator Cruz (Leans Trump)

Tennessee (Primary, 58): A poll out today gives Trump 40%, well ahead of Cruz & Rubio (Likely Trump)

Texas (Primary, 155): The big delegate prize on Super Tuesday; Cruz is averaging about 10 points ahead of Trump and will likely prevail in his home state (Likely Cruz)

Vermont (Primary, 16): A poll out this past week (very small sample size) had Trump well ahead of Rubio and Kasich (Likely Trump)

Virginia (Primary, 49): Two most recent polls give Trump a large lead; Rubio may have a slight lead over Cruz for 2nd (Likely Trump)

Wyoming (Caucus, 29): No polling; delegates won't be known until a later date


New Feature: Popular Vote Margin of Victory

February 26, 2016

We've added a series of popular vote margin of victory maps, covering the presidential elections from 1972 to 2012. The maps let users see how competitive states were for a given election, as well as to see the (decreasing) competitiveness of many states over time. As an exmaple, the margin of victory map for 1996 is shown below.

 

 



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