Election News

New Poll Points to Competitive Wisconsin Primary

March 23, 2016

As attention begins to turn toward April contests, a new poll shows a competitive primary for both parties shaping up in Wisconsin. The study, from Emerson College gives Ted Cruz a 36-35 lead over Donald Trump on the Republican side, while Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 50-44 for the Democrats.

These are the first polls in the state since the last release by the respected Marquette University Law School in late February. At that time, Marquette found Trump with a 10 point lead over Marco Rubio, who has since left the race and 11 points over Ted Cruz. The Democratic race was essentially tied. We would expect a new Marquette survey next week, in advance of the April 5 Wisconsin primaries.

Emerson also took a look at a few match-ups for November, finding that either Democrat would beat Donald Trump by 9 points. Clinton and Cruz were separated by just one point.



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Cruz, Trump Split As Sanders Takes 2 of 3 From Clinton - Updated Delegate Counts

March 23, 2016

Tuesday saw Ted Cruz easily win in Utah while Donald Trump did the same in winner take all Arizona. The main question of the night was whether Cruz could exceed 50% in Utah, the threshold for making it also winner take all. Cruz ended up near 70%. As a result, the night saw Trump win 59 delegates, Cruz 41. Both figures include a committed delegate from American Samoa. John Kasich was shut out for the night.

Trump increased his lead slightly and is now about 500 delegates away from the 1,237 needed. He needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to avoid a contested convention.

It was a good night for Bernie Sanders who cruised to victory in both Utah and Idaho caucuses. Hillary Clinton won Arizona. Sanders gained slightly in the delegate race, earning 57 delegates to Clinton's 51. Clinton needs about 600 delegates to reach 2,383 and win the nomination. That's about 1/3 of the remaining delegates.

 

This weekend sees three additional Democratic caucuses. The largest, by far, is the Washington state one with 118 delegates. Alaska and Hawaii will also hold their events. Based on other Western caucuses, Sanders should do well in Washington and Alaska; a little less clear how Hawaii will shake out. On the Republican side, the election calendar is quiet until the Wisconsin primary on April 5. North Dakota Republicans have a convention the first weekend in April to select delegates for the national convention in July. However, any candidate preferences noted by those delegates are not binding.


Cruz Exceeds 50% to Sweep All Utah Delegates; Gets Bush Endorsement

March 23, 2016

Ted Cruz easily won the Utah caucuses on Tuesday night; easily surpassing the 50% threshold to win all of that state's 40 delegates. He also won the support of a delegate in the American Samoa caucus. Unfortunately for the Texas Senator, Donald Trump increased his delegate lead slightly by taking Arizona and its 58 winner take all delegates. 

Cruz now needs to win about 82% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination outright before the Cleveland convention.

Separately, Jeb Bush endorsed Cruz this morning. In his endorsement, Bush said "For the sake of our party and country, we must move to overcome the divisiveness and vulgarity Donald Trump has brought into the political arena, or we will certainly lose our chance to defeat the Democratic nominee and reverse President Obama’s failed policies.”  

A summary of the overnight delegate counts thus far:

 


Utah, Arizona Highlight Tuesday's Election Calendar; More Democratic Caucuses Saturday

March 20, 2016

Monday Update: An Arizona Republican poll today gave Trump 46% to 33% for Cruz. This is Trump's highest number to date, although the 13 point margin is pretty similar to other polls. In Utah, a new poll gives Cruz 42% to Trump's 21% with Kasich at 13%. This is quite a bit different than the poll out over the weekend that had Cruz over 50% (that threshold needed to win all the state's delegates) and Trump at 11%. On the Democratic side in Utah, the first poll since January gives Sanders an 8 point lead over Clinton. The Utah polls are a small sample size, so caution is warranted.

See below for more info and links to the specific primary/caucus pages on our site.

===

This week, voters in Arizona will head to the polls on Tuesday, while Utahns will caucus that same day. In addition, the Democrats will hold caucuses in Idaho and there will be a Republican convention in American Samoa. On Saturday the 26th, Democrats will caucus in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington. Given the time differences, it will likely be late into the evening, at the earliest, before those on the east coast see any results.

Where We Stand

Trump has 678 delegates. He needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to win the Republican nomination before the convention in July. Cruz is next at 423. These numbers include a reallocation of Rubio's 5 Alaska delegates, 3 of whom went to Trump, 2 to Cruz.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won all five of last Tuesday's contests and has opened up a significant lead over Bernie Sanders, particularly when committed superdelegates are included. That said, the calendar is quite a bit friendlier to the Vermont Senator over the next several weeks, with numerous Western caucus events and the Wisconsin primary on April 5.  

Republican

Arizona Primary The state awards 58 winner take all delegates. Polling has been pretty limited. What there has been gives Trump a low double-digit lead over Cruz. However, Republicans on the ground indicate the race is going to be very close. (Projection: Leaning Trump. The race is probably tightening but this shift needs to be enough to overcome significant early voting in the state). 

Utah Caucus A new poll (the only one we have to go on) gives Cruz 53%, Kasich 29% and Trump 11%. The state has 40 delegates that will be awarded based on various thresholds. If this poll is exactly right, Cruz will win all 40 based on exceeding 50%. If no candidate gets to 50%, the key threshold is number of candidates that reach 15%. If all three reach 15%, they'll proportionately split all the delegates. If only two reach that mark, all candidates, regardless of vote, will split. Since only three candidates remain and since Utah reallocates delegates earned by those that have dropped out, it appears the proportional allocation will essentially be the same regardless of whether only two or all three reach 15%. Update: Projection is likely Cruz; unclear whether he crosses 50%.

Nine delegates are also available in American Samoa. 

Democrat

All Democratic contests allocate delegates (except superdelegates) on a roughly proportional basis, some based on the statewide result, some based on results in individual Congressional Districts (for states with more than one District).

Arizona Primary Hillary Clinton appears to have a significant lead; crossing 50% in the two most recent polls. The state has 85 delegates. (Projection: Likely Clinton). 

Utah Caucus The only poll here, from mid-January, gave Clinton a 10 point lead. Probably wouldn't put much faith in that given that Sanders has outperfomed expectations since voting began in early February, and he's done particularly well in caucus states. 37 delegates. (Projection: Toss-up). Update: Based on new poll that has Sanders up by 8, and performance in other caucus states, will move to Lean Sanders.

Idaho Caucus No polling here; probably reasonable to see an outcome similar to that of Utah. 27 delegates. (Projection: Toss-up). Update: Still no polling, but given Utah move think this is also a Lean Sanders.

The caucus results on Tuesday will likely be somewhat instructive for Saturday's caucuses in Washington and Alaska. It's less clear what they mean for Hawaii. Washington, with 118, is the most delegate-rich state for the Democrats this upcoming week. 


New Feature: Candidate Delegate Maps; % Remaining Delegates Needed

March 18, 2016

A new set of maps lets you see how each of the remaining candidates has performed in primary and caucus contests, including order of finish and delegates won. For events still to come, the total delegates are shown. 

Republican Candidate Delegate Maps     Democratic Candidate Delegate Maps

Delegate counts are from the New York Times and are subject to change, particularly for recent events. For example, only a portion of Missouri delegates have been awarded thus far. The maps will update as we get more information.

The active candidate's map is highlighted in green; click/tap to change to another candidate. This area also shows a summary of total delegates won by each candidate, and the percentage of remaining delegates needed to clinch the party's nomination. A value >100% means a candidate cannot* clinch the nomination prior to the party convention.

The Republican map, with Trump active, is shown below.

 

* Barring some unforseen circumstance. On the Democratic side, this assumes superdelegates remain with the candidate they have committed to support.


What Happens To Rubio's Delegates?

March 17, 2016

Marco Rubio had won 169 delegates when he suspended his campaign earlier this week; other candidates had won 15*. The disposition of these delegates may end up being important if no candidate reaches the required 1,237 to win the Republican nomination. 

As with most delegate-related issues, it turns out the answer varies by state. We found this very helpful infographic in today's Wall Street Journal that lays it out nicely. (The graphic is on page A4 of the paper; we haven't been able to find it online except in the WSJ ereader ). 

The graphic displays the four methods for what happens to these 184 delegates through the first round at the convention. Those are listed below, along with a couple notes.

  • Delegates are bound to the candidate (39 of the 184): Iowa is one of the states with this method; all but five of the non-Rubio delegates are in this category.
  • Candidate can keep or release delegates (42): Rubio controls 40 of these; Carson two. Carson has endorsed Donald Trump.
  • Delegates become free agents (98): If you're one of these people, you'll likely be hearing from the campaigns.
  • Delegates get re-allocated proportionately (5): Alaska only; depending on exact rounding rules, either Trump or Cruz will get three of these, with the other getting two. Kasich finished below the 13% threshold to qualify. Update: Trump was allocated 3, Cruz 2. Update 2: Rubio's request for the return of these five delegates was granted.

For more coverage of the campaign from The Wall Street Journal, visit their online politics section.

*Carson 8; Bush 4; Fiorina, Huckabee, Paul 1 each


Delegate Update: Trump Needs 53%, Clinton 34% of Remaining Delegates

March 16, 2016

Here are the latest delegate counts including the (still partial) results of last night's primaries. The table also includes the percentage of the remaining delegates each candidate needs to secure his or her party's nomination.

 

Thanks to superdelegates, Hillary Clinton only needs about 34% of the remaining 2,322 delegates (which includes 219 uncommitted superdelegates). The math does not favor Bernie Senators. He will need some of those previously committed superdelegates to change their mind for him to have much of a shot at the nomination. These superdelegates will feel little pressure to do so until and unless the Vermont Senator goes on an extended winning streak. 

On the Republican side, in the absence of it changing to a two-man race, it would appear that Donald Trump is the only candidate that can realistically reach 1,237 delegates before the Cleveland convention. Trump needs about 53% of the remaining 1,079 delegates.

The election calendar gets quieter for the next couple weeks. The main event next Tuesday will be the Arizona primary. Trump and Clinton lead in relatively limited polling.


Trump, Clinton Expand Delegate Lead; Rubio Ends Campaign While Kasich Stays Alive

March 16, 2016

Highlights from the March 15 primaries:

  • Trump expanded his delegate lead by easily winning Florida and its 99 winner take all delegates
  • After a distant 2nd in Florida, Rubio suspended his campaign
  • Kasich salvaged his campaign by winning Ohio and its 66 winner take all delegates
  • North Carolina (Republican) was closer than expected, Trump and Cruz will split most of the delegates in this proportional state
  • Clinton won at least four of five states; including a larger-than-expected win in Ohio
  • No AP calls in Missouri as of this writing; Trump and Clinton lead by just 0.2%.
  • Trump, with at least 621 delegates, is now >50% to the 1,237 needed to secure the Republican nomination
  • Clinton, with at least 1,561 delegates is now about 2/3 of the way to the 2,383 needed for the Democratic nomination


Republican Delegate Calculator for March 15 Primaries

March 15, 2016

For our review of today's events (both parties), including a recap of polling and a little more on delegate allocations, visit our March 15 primary polling update.

For anyone interested, we've created a spreadsheet that lets you allocate delegates in today's five Republican primaries, four of which are among the 10 states with the most delegates. Use it to make your own projections and see the proportion of remaining delegates each candidate will need after today, based on that forecast. 

The current values include Donald Trump's 9 delegates from today's caucus in the Northern Mariana Islands. Not all sources agree on delegate counts, so if yours are different, just change the 'Current' field.

 

Get the spreadsheet here


Polling Update for March 15 Primaries

March 14, 2016

Tuesday is shaping up as a key day in the 2016 presidential race. Five states, including four of the top ten delegate prizes in each party, will be voting. On the Republican side, the date marks the first date when states have the option for winner take all allocation of delegates. 

Where We Stand

Trump has 460 delegates, 37% of the 1,237 needed to secure the Republican nomination. This weekend saw Rubio, Cruz and Kasich earn about 10 delegates each, while Trump netted only one. Trump leads by 90 over Cruz heading into Tuesday, where approximately 360 delegates are up for grabs in the five states (plus nine in Northern Mariana Islands Convention)

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has won about 58% of the delegates in contests thus far, but holds a commanding lead when committed superdelegates are included. Assuming she holds those superdelegates (they can change their mind), she now has more than 50% of the 2,383 needed for the nomination. Around 790 delegates (including superdelegates) are associated with Tuesday's events.

A recap of where things currently stand for each contest follows, including a discussion of the delegate allocation procedure as we understand it. The poll closing times are believed accurate, but you should not rely on them to vote. Click/tap a state for more details.  

Republican

 

Florida The big prize on March 15 with 99 winner take all delegates. There has been a lot of polling over the past week, and Trump leads it all, but there's an interesting stratification here. Some of the polls show a competitive battle, with Rubio about 7 points back. The others show an easy Trump win of 20 points, with Rubio and Cruz fighting it out for 2nd. There's not a lot in-between. (The most recent polls have gone in the Trump 20+ direction). Florida is a must-win state for Rubio. Polls in most of the state close at 7PM ET. (Projection: Likely Trump as the non-Trump vote will be divided between Cruz and Rubio. Trump is well-positioned to win and gain 99 delegates.)

North Carolina The state proportionately allocates its 72 delegates based on the statewide result. Trump has led every poll this year, currently averaging about 12 points over Cruz. Polls close at 7:30PM ET. Although well back, Kasich seems to have caught Rubio for 3rd. (Projection: Likely Trump. If the polls are pretty accurate, delagate allocation would be roughly Trump 30, Cruz 20, Kasich and Rubio both 11.)

Illinois The state has 69 delegates. 15 of these will go to the statewide popular vote winner. The remaining 54 delegates are directly elected, 3 per Congressional District. There has been a surge of polling in recent days, most showing Trump with about a 10 point lead over Cruz. However, a poll out Sunday from CBS & YouGov gives Trump only a 4 point edge. Polls close at 8:00PM ET. (Projection: Likely Trump for the 15 statewide delegates. No idea what to expect for the remainder).

Ohio This race, with 66 winner take all delegates, could go either way. As of Monday morning, Kasich had a one point lead, on average, over Trump. For the overall race for the nomination, this may be the most important battle of the night, particularly if Trump wins Florida. Polls close at 7:30PM ET. (Projection: Toss-up; either Trump or Kasich will win and gain 66 delegates).

Missouri While outside the top 10 in total delegates, the state still has a significant number at 52. If a candidate exceeds 50%, he receives all 52 of the delegates. Otherwise, the candidate with the most statewide votes gets 12 delegates, with the remaining 40 allocated, in groups of five, to the winner of each of the state's eight Congressional Districts. There has been little polling here; a small sample survey the other day gave Trump a 7 point lead over Cruz with Rubio and Kasich well back. Polls close at 8:00PM ET. (Projection: Nobody gets 50% statewide; Trump or Cruz will win the 12 statewide delegates.)

Democrat

All Democratic contests allocate delegates (except superdelegates) on a roughly proportional basis, some based on the statewide result, some based on results in individual Congressional Districts. For poll closing times, see the section above.

Florida, where Clinton is averaging a 60-33 lead over Sanders and North Carolina, where the Clinton average lead is 55-34, are expected to be easy Clinton wins. Florida has 246 delegates, North Carolina 121.

The other three states have open primaries and could be much more competitive. A Public Policy Polling series out Sunday showed that independents and Republicans that are planning to vote in the Democratic primary overwhelmingly favor Sanders. Therefore, the proportion of these voters that show up vs. registered Democrats, could prove decisive in each state. 

Illinois Overall, Clinton has a 17 point lead, on average. However, the most recent polls all show a Clinton lead of 6 points or less. Perhaps the race has narrowed, or perhaps the pollster assumptions on voter mix is evolving. It's possible that the recent Sanders upset in nearby Michigan, where Clinton's poll lead was 20+, is weighing on the pros here, and in the other two Midwestern states. We'll find out tomorrow. The state has 182 delegates. Projection: Toss-up.

Ohio Recent polls have given Clinton a lead of anywhere from five to 20 points; likely seeing the same issues as in Illinois. Ohio has 160 delegates. Projection: Toss-up.

Missouri Very limited polling here; this weekend's Public Policy survey showed a dead heat. 84 delegates. Projection: Toss-up.



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