Election News

Final Super Tuesday Republican Polling Averages

March 1, 2016

Donald Trump looks poised to win seven of the eight Super Tuesday states where recent polling is available, with Ted Cruz the favorite to win Texas, home to the largest delegate prize. Marco Rubio has the most consistent support across the states and that should be good enough for a 2nd or 3rd place everywhere.

 

The most recent Arkansas poll is from early February. It is unfortunate that there hasn't been any polling since, as this could end up being the day's most competitive primary. No recent polling is available in the caucus states.

Delegate allocation is somewhat proportional in all the Super Tuesday states, with many states offering delegates based both on the statewide result and the result within each Congressional District. As a result, while Trump is likely to win the most delegates today, Rubio and Cruz will get their share.



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CNN Poll Highlights a Primary vs. November Paradox

March 1, 2016

Super Tuesday is underway; a day that is likely to see Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton further cement their status as their respective party's likely nominees. (Super Tuesday Republican and Democratic polling update).

A new CNN | ORC poll for the general election shows that intra-party dominance doesn't extend to the general election. (We've noticed this for the last several months, but it is particularly obvious now that the number of likely match-ups has decreased).

 

Bernie Sanders easily defeats all three Republicans sampled, and significantly outperforms Clinton in each case. In the most extreme case, Cruz leads Clinton by one while Sanders beats him by 17 points. 

Looking at it from the Republican side, Trump is easily beaten by either Clinton or Sanders, while Rubio and Cruz have a small lead over Clinton. Rubio outperforms Trump against either opponent.

Some of these differences can likely be attributed to the fact that Sanders is viewed much more favorably than Clinton (57% favorable for Sanders, 42% for Clinton in the poll) and that Clinton and Trump had the highest unfavorables (55% and 60%, respectively). 


Clinton vs. Sanders: A Super Tuesday Polling Update

February 28, 2016

Four contests are in the books; Hillary Clinton leads the delegate count 91-65 in those; she has a much larger lead of 544-85 when superdelegates are included. 2,382 delegates are needed to secure the nomination. 

Super Tuesday is less than two days out; over 20% of Democratic delegates will be up for grabs that day. Here's a very quick update on the polling in each state. Democratic primaries generally follow the same proportional allocation formula, allocating some statewide, some by Congressional District, with a 15% minimum threshold. As a result, except perhaps for Vermont, both Clinton and Sanders will likely earn some delegates in each contest.

In the list below, the delegate numbers are totals for the Democratic Convention, they may not all get allocated on Super Tuesday. Select a state for details. For a one-page look at who is leading each of the Democratic contests, not just those on Super Tuesday, go here.

Alabama (Primary, 60 delegates): Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 28 points in the PPP poll out mid-month (Solid Clinton)

Arkansas (Primary, 37): Clinton up 25 in a PPP poll (Solid Clinton)

Colorado (Caucus, 79): No recent polling; delegates won't actually be awarded until a later date

Georgia (Primary, 116): Clinton polling mid-60s in recent polls (Solid Clinton)

Massachusetts (Primary, 116): Neighbor state to Sanders home; if polling is correct this will likely be the closest Democratic battle on Super Tuesday (Toss-up) 

Minnesota (Caucus, 93): A late January poll showed Clinton up by 34 points (Solid Clinton)

Oklahoma (Primary, 42): The most recent poll had Clinton up just two, while others give her a much larger lead (Leans Clinton)

Tennessee (Primary, 76): Clinton up by 26 in two recent polls (Solid Clinton)

Texas (Primary, 252): The most recent polls have Clinton up by 20-30 points (Likely Clinton)

Vermont (Primary, 26): No contest here; Sanders leads his home state by about 70 points; may keep Clinton under 15% and win all the state's delegates (Solid Sanders)

Virginia (Primary, 110): The polls are a bit varied, but Clinton leads by at least 12 points; average is almost 20 points (Likely Clinton)

March 1 will also see the American Samoa territorial caucus, with 10 total delegates. 


Two Days Out: Super Tuesday Republican Polling Update

February 28, 2016

Super Tuesday is less than 48 hours away, with contests being held in 13 states on March 1. This will be the busiest date of the Republican nominating calendar. Here's a very quick update on the polling in each state. Note that most delegates on this date will be allocated proportionately, either based on the statewide result, or some combination of statewide and each Congressional District. There is also usually a minimum threshold to claim any delegates. 

Click/tap a state for more details:

Alabama (Primary, 50 delegates): Two recent polls had Trump averaging 37%, Cruz and Rubio below 20% (Likely Trump)

Alaska (Caucus, 28): A January poll showed Trump & Cruz separated by 4 points (Toss-up)

Arkansas (Primary, 40): A poll earlier this month had Cruz, Trump & Rubio within 4 points (Toss-up)

Colorado (Caucus, 37): No recent polling; delegates won't actually be awarded until a later date

Georgia (Primary, 76): Several polls out this past week had Trump well ahead; Cruz & Rubio tight for 2nd. The state offers the 2nd most Republican delegates on Super Tuesday (Likely Trump)

Massachusetts (Primary, 42): Recent polls have Trump averaging in the mid-40s; Rubio & Kasich fighting for 2nd (Solid Trump)

Minnesota (Caucus, 38): A late January poll showed a pretty close 3-way race with Rubio, Cruz & Trump (Toss-up)

Oklahoma (Primary, 43): Trump appears to hold a small lead over a surging Rubio and neighboring state Senator Cruz (Leans Trump)

Tennessee (Primary, 58): A poll out today gives Trump 40%, well ahead of Cruz & Rubio (Likely Trump)

Texas (Primary, 155): The big delegate prize on Super Tuesday; Cruz is averaging about 10 points ahead of Trump and will likely prevail in his home state (Likely Cruz)

Vermont (Primary, 16): A poll out this past week (very small sample size) had Trump well ahead of Rubio and Kasich (Likely Trump)

Virginia (Primary, 49): Two most recent polls give Trump a large lead; Rubio may have a slight lead over Cruz for 2nd (Likely Trump)

Wyoming (Caucus, 29): No polling; delegates won't be known until a later date


New Feature: Popular Vote Margin of Victory

February 26, 2016

We've added a series of popular vote margin of victory maps, covering the presidential elections from 1972 to 2012. The maps let users see how competitive states were for a given election, as well as to see the (decreasing) competitiveness of many states over time. As an exmaple, the margin of victory map for 1996 is shown below.

 

 


Trump Wins Nevada; Rubio Edges Cruz for 2nd

February 24, 2016

Donald Trump easily won Tuesday's Nevada caucuses, winning about 46% of the vote. Marco Rubio appears to have edged Ted Cruz for 2nd, with both scoring in the low 20% range.

If these positions hold, it will be a repeat of the results of this past Saturday's South Carolina primary. Trump's margin in Nevada was much bigger than in South Carolina, but his delegate haul will be smaller, owing to Nevada's proportional allocation rules.

The preliminary delegate count is 12 for Trump, and 5 each for Rubio & Cruz. Trump is well out in front, but only a small number of delegates have been awarded to this point. A much larger batch awaits on Super Tuesday.


Super Tuesday Democratic Polling Update

February 23, 2016

February 28: We've updated the information below: Go Here.

Yesterday, we discussed the Super Tuesday Republican contests.

Democrats will hold their primary in South Carolina on Saturday, which Hillary Clinton is expected to win handily. Super Tuesday follows, with over 20% of delegates that day. Here's a very quick update on the polling in each state. Democratic primaries generally follow the same proportional allocation formula, allocating some statewide, some by Congressional District, with a 15% minimum threshold. 

In the list below, the delegate numbers are totals for the Democratic Convention, they may not all get allocated on Super Tuesday. Select a state for details.

Public Policy (PPP) did a poll series for all the states with primaries on that date; in many cases the only polling available. The executive summary is that Clinton is set to do very well on Super Tuesday; she may only lose Vermont, although a couple other states may be competitive.

Alabama (Primary, 60 delegates): Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 28 points in the PPP poll out last week (Solid Clinton)

Arkansas (Primary, 37): Clinton up 25 in this PPP poll (Solid Clinton)

Colorado (Caucus, 79): No recent polling; delegates won't actually be awarded until a later date

Georgia (Primary, 116): A couple polls over the past week have Clinton up by an average of 43 points (Solid Clinton)

Massachusetts (Primary, 116): Neighbor state to Sanders home; he leads polling by an average of 3.5% (Toss-up) 

Minnesota (Caucus, 93): A late January poll showed Clinton up by 34 points (Solid Clinton)

Oklahoma (Primary, 42): One February poll had Clinton up 14, the other just two (Leans Clinton)

Tennessee (Primary, 76): Clinton up by 26 in PPP poll (Solid Clinton)

Texas (Primary, 252): Clinton's lead has been narrowing, but still up by 10 in a poll out today (Likely Clinton)

Vermont (Primary, 26): No contest here; Sanders leads his home state by about 70 points; may keep Clinton under 15% and win all the state's delegates (Solid Sanders)

Virginia (Primary, 110): PPP has Clinton up 22; another pollster has it at 12 (Likely Clinton)

March 1 will also see the American Samoa territorial caucus, with 10 total delegates. 


Cruz Leads in Texas, New Poll Finds; 155 Delegates Up for Grabs next Tuesday

February 23, 2016

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has an 8 point lead over overall Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, according to a new poll from the Texas Tribune. Cruz has 37%, Trump has 29% and Marco Rubio is at 15%. The two were tied in November, when the last Tribune poll was conducted.

The Texas Primary is on March 1; its 155 delegates represent the largest single prize on Super Tuesday. By comparison, only 133 delegates will be awarded in all four February Republican contests, including 30 at today's Nevada caucuses

Who will Win the 155 Delegates?

There's a lot of 'if' here, but if next Tuesday's statewide results match today's poll and if the results are the same in each of the state's 36 Congressional Districts, we estimate 99 delegates for Cruz, 56 for Trump. Based on a review of the allocation rules, the winner of each District would get two delegates, the 2nd place finisher gets one, while the 47 remaining delegates would be allocated proportionately between Cruz and Trump.

Given the diversity in the Texas electorate, it is unlikely that each District would vote the same way, and so the actual distribution of delegates will almost definitely be somewhat different than the above. Additionally, there are some thresholds that come into play. For example, a candidate getting >50% of the vote in any District (or statewide) wins all 3 delegates for that District (or 47 statewide). Likewise, if Rubio can reach 20% of the statewide vote, he'll join the proportional mix for the 47 delegates.


Super Tuesday Republican Polling Update

February 22, 2016

February 28: We've updated the information below: Go Here.

Republicans will caucus in Nevada tomorrow, then debate in Houston this Thursday. After that it's on to Super Tuesday, March 1. This will be the busiest date of the Republican nominating calendar. Here's a very quick update on the polling in each state. Note that most delegates on this date will be allocated proportionately, either based on the statewide result, or some combination of statewide and each Congressional District. There is also usually a minimum threshold to claim any delegates. Click/tap a state for more details. We'll do a Democratic update tomorrow.

Correction: An earlier version of this post included North Dakota as a Super Tuesday caucus state. That appears to be better classified as a caucus (state convention) the weekend of April 1-3. We've moved it to April 1 on our 2016 election calendar. Regardless of date, none of the state's 28 delegates will be bound to a particular candidate at the Republican National Convention.

Alabama (Primary, 50 delegates): A mid-February poll had Trump at 38%, Cruz and Rubio in the mid-teens (Likely Trump)

Alaska (Caucus, 28): A January poll showed Trump & Cruz separated by 4 points (Toss-up)

Arkansas (Primary, 40): A poll earlier this month had Cruz, Trump & Rubio within 4 points (Toss-up)

Colorado (Caucus, 37): No recent polling; delegates won't actually be awarded until a later date

Georgia (Primary, 76): It's been about a month since two polls that had Trump up by 10 points over Cruz (Leans Trump)

Massachusetts (Primary, 42): A poll out today had Trump at 50% (Looks pretty solid for Trump)

Minnesota (Caucus, 38): A late January poll showed a pretty close 3-way race with Rubio, Cruz & Trump (Toss-up)

Oklahoma (Primary, 43): The Sooner Poll early this month gave Trump a small lead over Cruz, with Rubio 3rd (Toss-up)

Tennessee (Primary, 58): No recent polling (Based on nearby state polling, would say Likely Trump)

Texas (Primary, 155): The big delegate prize on Super Tuesday; a couple polls late January had Cruz ahead (Leans Cruz)

Vermont (Primary, 16): A poll out today (very small sample size) had Trump well ahead of Rubio and Kasich (Leans Trump)

Virginia (Primary, 49): A poll last week showed Trump with a small lead over Rubio and Cruz (Leans Trump)

Wyoming (Caucus, 29): No polling; delegates won't be known until a later date


Trump Wins At Least 44 South Carolina Delegates; Rubio Edges Cruz for Second and Bush Withdraws

February 21, 2016

Donald Trump solidified his lead in the 2016 Republican race by defeating Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz by 10 points and claiming most (if not all) of the state's 50 delegates. Rubio just edged Cruz for second, while Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Ben Carson were well back in single digits. After another lackluster performance, Jeb Bush suspended his campaign

 

Trump, Rubio and Cruz all outperformed the polling averages, and it appears we have a 3-person race for the nomination. John Kasich will likely benefit from Bush's withdrawal and will probably stick around at least through mid-March in the hopes of adding to his delegate count in states like Michigan and his home state of Ohio. Ben Carson doesn't seem to have a realistic path forward. While he may outperform South Carolina in some of the southern states on Super Tuesday, most of those states have a threshold minimum popular vote to win delegates. 

Rubio appears to have barely edged out fellow Senator Cruz for 2nd place; perhaps the endorsement earlier this week by Governor Nikki Haley made the difference. Despite the strong showing by both Rubio and Cruz, they will likely have nothing to show for it in terms of delegates.

South Carolina is the only Republican state to be exempt from the Party's proportional allocation rules in effect for contests before March 15. The state awards 29 delegates to the winner of the state, with 3 more to the winner of each of the state's 7 Congressional Districts. As of this writing, Trump has 44 of those 50 delegates, and is likely to win the remaining 6. This puts him well in front in the early delegate count. 

Additionally, since its inception in 1980, the winner in South Carolina's primary has gone on to be the Republican nominee each cycle except for 2012, when Newt Gingrich defeated Mitt Romney. 

The remaining five Republicans will compete for 30 delegates in the Nevada caucuses this Tuesday.



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