Election News

Polling Update for March 15 Primaries

March 14, 2016

Tuesday is shaping up as a key day in the 2016 presidential race. Five states, including four of the top ten delegate prizes in each party, will be voting. On the Republican side, the date marks the first date when states have the option for winner take all allocation of delegates. 

Where We Stand

Trump has 460 delegates, 37% of the 1,237 needed to secure the Republican nomination. This weekend saw Rubio, Cruz and Kasich earn about 10 delegates each, while Trump netted only one. Trump leads by 90 over Cruz heading into Tuesday, where approximately 360 delegates are up for grabs in the five states (plus nine in Northern Mariana Islands Convention)

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has won about 58% of the delegates in contests thus far, but holds a commanding lead when committed superdelegates are included. Assuming she holds those superdelegates (they can change their mind), she now has more than 50% of the 2,383 needed for the nomination. Around 790 delegates (including superdelegates) are associated with Tuesday's events.

A recap of where things currently stand for each contest follows, including a discussion of the delegate allocation procedure as we understand it. The poll closing times are believed accurate, but you should not rely on them to vote. Click/tap a state for more details.  

Republican

 

Florida The big prize on March 15 with 99 winner take all delegates. There has been a lot of polling over the past week, and Trump leads it all, but there's an interesting stratification here. Some of the polls show a competitive battle, with Rubio about 7 points back. The others show an easy Trump win of 20 points, with Rubio and Cruz fighting it out for 2nd. There's not a lot in-between. (The most recent polls have gone in the Trump 20+ direction). Florida is a must-win state for Rubio. Polls in most of the state close at 7PM ET. (Projection: Likely Trump as the non-Trump vote will be divided between Cruz and Rubio. Trump is well-positioned to win and gain 99 delegates.)

North Carolina The state proportionately allocates its 72 delegates based on the statewide result. Trump has led every poll this year, currently averaging about 12 points over Cruz. Polls close at 7:30PM ET. Although well back, Kasich seems to have caught Rubio for 3rd. (Projection: Likely Trump. If the polls are pretty accurate, delagate allocation would be roughly Trump 30, Cruz 20, Kasich and Rubio both 11.)

Illinois The state has 69 delegates. 15 of these will go to the statewide popular vote winner. The remaining 54 delegates are directly elected, 3 per Congressional District. There has been a surge of polling in recent days, most showing Trump with about a 10 point lead over Cruz. However, a poll out Sunday from CBS & YouGov gives Trump only a 4 point edge. Polls close at 8:00PM ET. (Projection: Likely Trump for the 15 statewide delegates. No idea what to expect for the remainder).

Ohio This race, with 66 winner take all delegates, could go either way. As of Monday morning, Kasich had a one point lead, on average, over Trump. For the overall race for the nomination, this may be the most important battle of the night, particularly if Trump wins Florida. Polls close at 7:30PM ET. (Projection: Toss-up; either Trump or Kasich will win and gain 66 delegates).

Missouri While outside the top 10 in total delegates, the state still has a significant number at 52. If a candidate exceeds 50%, he receives all 52 of the delegates. Otherwise, the candidate with the most statewide votes gets 12 delegates, with the remaining 40 allocated, in groups of five, to the winner of each of the state's eight Congressional Districts. There has been little polling here; a small sample survey the other day gave Trump a 7 point lead over Cruz with Rubio and Kasich well back. Polls close at 8:00PM ET. (Projection: Nobody gets 50% statewide; Trump or Cruz will win the 12 statewide delegates.)

Democrat

All Democratic contests allocate delegates (except superdelegates) on a roughly proportional basis, some based on the statewide result, some based on results in individual Congressional Districts. For poll closing times, see the section above.

Florida, where Clinton is averaging a 60-33 lead over Sanders and North Carolina, where the Clinton average lead is 55-34, are expected to be easy Clinton wins. Florida has 246 delegates, North Carolina 121.

The other three states have open primaries and could be much more competitive. A Public Policy Polling series out Sunday showed that independents and Republicans that are planning to vote in the Democratic primary overwhelmingly favor Sanders. Therefore, the proportion of these voters that show up vs. registered Democrats, could prove decisive in each state. 

Illinois Overall, Clinton has a 17 point lead, on average. However, the most recent polls all show a Clinton lead of 6 points or less. Perhaps the race has narrowed, or perhaps the pollster assumptions on voter mix is evolving. It's possible that the recent Sanders upset in nearby Michigan, where Clinton's poll lead was 20+, is weighing on the pros here, and in the other two Midwestern states. We'll find out tomorrow. The state has 182 delegates. Projection: Toss-up.

Ohio Recent polls have given Clinton a lead of anywhere from five to 20 points; likely seeing the same issues as in Illinois. Ohio has 160 delegates. Projection: Toss-up.

Missouri Very limited polling here; this weekend's Public Policy survey showed a dead heat. 84 delegates. Projection: Toss-up.



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Midwestern Democratic Primaries Could Go Either Way Tuesday, New Poll Series Finds

March 13, 2016

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are closely matched in Ohio, Illinois and Missouri, a new poll series from Public Policy Polling finds. These three states, along with Florida and North Carolina, hold their Democratic primaries on Tuesday. Clinton should easily win the latter two states.

The three competitive states are all open primary states. The poll found that Sanders is benefiting from the support of independents and Republicans planning to vote with the Democratic ballot. Sanders leads by 30-40 points in those groups, while Clinton leads by about 20 among Democrats. Overall, the poll found Clinton with a 5 point lead in Ohio and a 3 point lead in Illinois, with Sanders up by 1 in Missouri.

 

If these metrics are accurate, than the mix of voters (D vs. I vs. R) that actually cast their ballots will be crucial to determining whether Senator Senators can pull the upset in any or all of these states. Other recent polls in Ohio and Illinois have not seen the same thing. Looking at the 270toWin Polling Averages, Clinton leads by about 17 in Illinois, and 15 in Ohio. The PPP poll in Missouri is the first one with a significant sample size, so not much to go on there.


New Polls Find Kasich with Small Lead in Ohio; Clinton/Sanders Competitve in Illinois

March 13, 2016

A series of polls from NBC News, The Wall Street Journal and Marist provided mostly positive news for for frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton heading into Tuesday's primaries in Florida, Ohio & Illinois. There was also some good news for Ohio governor John Kasich as he holds a small lead in that state's crucial winner take all vote. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is polling just behind Clinton. 


Finally, a Missouri Poll! Trump, Clinton Each Lead by 7

March 11, 2016

The good news is we finally have a current Missouri poll. The bad news is that the sample size is quite small and so caution should be used in relying too heavily on the results.

Republican: The poll found Donald Trump at 36% with Ted Cruz seven points back at 29%. Marco Rubio and John Kasich are non-factors, at below 10%. With a margin of error of 7%, it would be prudent to say that either Trump or Cruz could win. This is consistent with what we noted earlier in our discussion of the March 15 Republican primaries. That narrative also included information on how Missouri allocates its 52 delegates.

 

Democrat: The poll also found a competitive race between Clinton and Sanders; Clinton with a 47-40 lead. The sample size is even smaller here, however, and sports an 8% margin of error. 


Polling Update for March 15: 4 of Top 10 Republican Delegate Prizes; Some Winner Take All

March 11, 2016

Tuesday, March 15 is shaping up as a pivotal day in the Republican nomination fight. Five states, including four of the top ten delegate prizes, will be voting. Additionally, the date marks the first date when states have the option for winner take all allocation of delegates. In all, these states will put 358 delegates into play.

As of now, Donald Trump leads the Republican field with 458 delegates, about 100 ahead of Ted Cruz.  Trump has about 37% of the 1,237 needed to nominate.

A recap of where things currently stand for each contest follows, including a discussion of the delegate allocation procedure, as we understand it. The poll closing times are believed accurate, but you should not rely on them to vote. Click/tap a state for more details.  

Florida The big prize on March 15 with 99 winner take all delegates. There has been a lot of polling this week, and Trump leads it all, but there's an interesting stratification here.  About half the polls show a competitive battle, with Rubio about 7 points back. The other half show an easy Trump win of 15-20 points, with Marco Rubio only a few points ahead of Cruz. There's not a lot in-between. Florida is a must-win state for Rubio. Polls in most of the state close at 7PM ET.  (Projection: Likely Trump; either Trump or Rubio will win and gain 99 delegates).

North Carolina The state proportionately allocates its 72 delegates based on the statewide result. Trump has led every poll this year, currently averaging about 10 points over Cruz. Polls close at 7:30PM ET. (Projection: Likely Trump. If we assume the poll averages are the outcome, and that only these four candidates get delegates, allocation would be roughly 30 Trump, 20 Cruz, 13 Rubio, 9 Kasich).

Illinois The state has 69 delegates. 15 of these will go to the statewide popular vote winner. The remaining 54 delegates are directly elected, 3 per Congressional District. There has been limited polling here; a Chicago Tribune survey earlier in the week gave Trump 32%, with Rubio, Cruz and Kasich all near 20%. Trump has led every poll this year, currently averaging about 10 points over Cruz. Polls close at 8:00PM ET. (Projection: Likely Trump for the 15 statewide delegates. No idea what to expect for the remainder).

Ohio This race, with 66 winner take all delegates, has tightened in recent weeks. Trump is currently leading by an average of 2.5 points over the state's governor, John Kasich. For the overall race for the nomination, this may be the most important battle of the night, particularly if Trump wins Florida. Polls close at 7:30PM ET. (Projection: Toss-up; either Trump or Kasich will win and gain 66 delegates).

Missouri While outside the top 10, the state still has a significant 52 delegates. If a candidate exceeds 50%, he receives all 52 of the delegates. Otherwise, the candidate with the most statewide votes gets 12 delegates, with the remaining 40 allocated, in groups of five, to the winner of each of the state's eight Congressional Districts. There has been no recent polling here; a late 2015 survey gave Trump a 10 point lead over Cruz. Polls close at 8:00PM ET. (Projection: Nobody gets 50% statewide; Trump or Cruz probably the best bet for the 12 statewide delegates).


Donald Trump Delegate Summary Map

March 10, 2016

Donald Trump has earned 458 delegates in the contests held thus far, about 37% of the 1,237 required to get the nomination. The map below shows the delegates he's earned in each contest thus far, with the states colored to reflect his position in the popular vote.

This is a prototype. If we can work a few things out, we'll have similar maps for the other Republicans and the two Democratic candidates.

   


Defying Polls, Sanders Wins Michigan; Trump Takes Three of Four: Delegate Update

March 9, 2016

Defying polls that had him down 20 points, Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton by 2 points in Michigan, a huge boost to his campaign. The estimated 65 delegates Sanders amassed was his 2nd largest single event total thus far. Hillary Clinton easily won Mississippi, continuing her dominance in Southern primaries.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump won events in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi, with Ted Cruz winning Idaho. Marco Rubio finished no better than 3rd, earning no delegates for the evening.

Preliminary updated delegate counts follow. For more details, visit our Republican and Democratic nomination pages.

 


Trump, Clinton Well Ahead in Florida, New Poll Finds; General Election a Toss-up

March 8, 2016

One week out from the delegate-rich Florida primary, a new Florida Decides poll (taken by SurveyUSA) shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton with rather large leads. The poll also showed a very close general election between Hillary Clinton and any of three surveyed opponents.

Republican: Trump received 42% support in the poll, about double that of Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz was third with 17%. Rubio's 22% in this must-win state was his weakest poll showing since late January. Florida is a winner take all state; in fact it is the largest winner take all Republican primary with 99 delegates. 

 

Democrat: Clinton received 61% to Bernie Sanders 30% in the poll; her lead has been expanding in polls over the past month. There are 246 delegates in Florida which, aside from superdelegates, will be allocated proportionately; some based on the statewide result, some based on the result in each Congressional District.

 

General Election: Looking ahead to November, the poll looked at prospective match-ups between Clinton and each of Trump, Rubio and Cruz. In all three cases, the race appears deadlocked. Florida and its 29 electoral votes looks to again be an important swing state.


Bloomberg Says Not Running for President

March 7, 2016

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has decided not to run as an independent in 2016, he announced this afternoon on Bloomberg View. As in the past when he's looked at running, he decided he couldn't win a 3-way race. Part of his statement follows:

While Bloomberg has decided to pass on 2016, this doesn't completely end the possibility of a credible independent or 3rd party challenge. The two most likely scenarios involve Donald Trump. If he looks to win the nomination, a well-known conservative may choose to join up with a 3rd party that has ballot access, such as the Constitution Party. Alternately, if Trump doesn't get the nomination, he may choose to go the independent route.

For those interested in such possibilities, try our 3rd party interactive electoral map.


Trump, Clinton Lead Michigan As Not-So-Super Tuesday Up Next

March 7, 2016

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton hold fairly large leads in Michigan, the largest delegate prize on a relatively quiet Tuesday (although CNN would have you believe otherwise). Below the image, we summarize the day's events with updated polling info.

  

Michigan Primaries

On the Republican side, Trump is averaging about 38% in recent polls, with Ted Cruz and John Kasich fighting it out for 2nd at about 20% each.  Marco Rubio is well back at 13%. It is worth noting that the polling for this race has been a bit volatile. For example, in the five polls we are currently averaging, John Kasich has placed in every position, from first to last. There are 59 delegates allocated proportionately (unless someone gets >50%) based on the statewide vote, with a 15% minimum to accrue delegates.  

Hillary Clinton seems to have a comfortable lead, averaging about 20 points over Bernie Sanders. As with all Democratic primaries, most of the 147 delegates will be allocated proportionately, some statewide and some by individual Congressional District.

Other Republican contests:

Hawaii (Caucus, 19 delegates): Proportional caucus statewide/Congressional District. No polling available  

Idaho (Primary, 32): A poll out yesterday, but conducted in late February, gives Trump 30%, with Cruz and Rubio just below 20%. The 20% figure is important, as Idaho allocates its delegates proportionately with a 20% minimum threshold; >50% winner take all. (The poll not yet in our database as we're trying to get some additional information on it). 

Mississippi (Primary, 40): The only recent poll, from last week, givesTrump 41%, well ahead of Cruz & Rubio. This is a proportional primary, statewide/Congressional District with a 15% minimum threshold for the state vote. Congressional Districts become winner take all if a candidate exceeds 50%

Other Democratic contests: 

Mississippi (Primary, 41): Two recent polls indicate an easy win for Hillary Clinton here; this would be pretty consistent with recent primaries in other Southeastern states.



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