Election News

Tuesday Live Results

April 26, 2016

Updated delegate count 10:45PM

Trump sweeps all five states, winning 105 delegates, reaching 950 total. Kasich has won 5 delegates, Cruz 0

Trump has swept delegates in DE, PA, CT. 8 more delegates remain to be allocated.

Trump now only candidate that can reach 1,237 before convention

Clinton wins MD, DE, PA, CT, picking up 190 delegates thus far, surpassing 2,150.  

Sanders wins RI; he has gained 114 delegates tonight. About 80 more delegates remain to be allocated

AP: Clinton can lose every remaining primary by a wide margin and still capture her party’s nomination ow.ly/4n8o70

For detailed vote results, visit the New York Times.

 



Headlines From Political Wire

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Delegate Outlook for Tuesday's Five Primaries

April 26, 2016

The polls are open until 8PM* in the five Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states holding their primaries today. It looks to be a good day for frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Let's take a look at what that might mean for the delegate counts. Keep in mind these are rough projections; there's not much to go on at the congressional district level where a decent chunk of the delegates will be awarded. 

Republican: The image below is from our interactive delegate calculator, where you can create your own forecast of whether Trump will reach the necessary 1,237 delegates before the Republican Convention.

 

Trump starts the day with 845 delegates, with 118 at stake across the five states. If the polling is even remotely accurate, there's little doubt that Trump will win all five states, likely exceeding 50% in at least a couple of them. Each state has a somewhat different allocation methodology, leading to a variety of delegate outcomes. For details on each state's approach and more polling detail, see our Republican primary preview

Recent polling has been even more favorable for Trump. Based on that, we expect him to win in the neighborhood of 100 delegates today. This will put him within about 300 of winning the nomination. There are 54 technically unbound Pennsylvania delegates that will be directly elected by the voters today (3 in each congressional district). It is expected that a decent portion of them will support the state or respective congressional district winner. Additionally, next week's Indiana primary, awards 57 delegates on a split winner take all basis. The disposition of these 111 delegates will go a long way toward determining how likely it is that Trump reach 1,237 by the end of the primary season. 

Democrat:  Clinton is likely to win all five states today, although one recent poll in Rhode Island showed Bernie Sanders slightly ahead. Democratic delegate allocation is essentially the same in each state: Some proportional by statewide vote, others at the congressional district level. There are also a number of unbound superdelegates in each state. The table below shows the breakdown of pledged delegates in each state voting today.


Clinton is projected to grow her lead by about 50 pledged delegates today. More importantly, it takes another 384 delegates off the table. When factoring in committed superdelegates, she will likely need fewer than 20% of those remaining to win the nomination. As we noted in our Democratic primary preview, Clinton is likely to reach the magic number of 2,383 on June 7. 

* This information is believed to be accurate, but do not rely on it in deciding when to vote


Democratic Primary Preview: 384 Delegates at Stake in Five States Tuesday

April 25, 2016

This is our overview of Tuesday's Democratic primaries. We've already published one for the Republican primaries.

Democratic voters in five East Coast states head to the polls on April 26th, as Hillary Clinton looks to build on her strong showing in New York last Tuesday. As in that state, the demographics and polls point toward another good day for her, one that will likely put her within a couple hundred delegates of clinching the Democratic nomination.

Clinton will enter Tuesday's contests about 250 ahead of Sanders in pledged delegates, a lead that grows to over 700 when including committed superdelegates. Clinton picked up 11 more of these after convincing win in New York. She now leads 513-38, with 163 uncommitted. Many of these uncommitted delegates have told the AP that they will support the candidate that win the most delegates from the primary and caucus events.

384 pledged delegates will be at stake in Tuesday's 5 primaries.

A recap of where things currently stand for each contest follows, beginning with a rough delegate projection based on polling averages*. As a reminder, all Democratic primaries allocate delegates (other than superdelegates) proportionately, with some based on the statewide result, some based on congressional district, if applicable**. The poll hours, all Eastern time, are believed accurate, but you should not rely on them to vote. (It does look like the polls close at 8PM in all five states). Click/tap a state name for more details.  

Pennsylvania (189 pledged delegates) The state has almost as many delegates as Tuesday's other four contests combined, which will make it the most closely-watched event of the day. Individual polls have bounced around a bit, but they all point to a Clinton victory. It looks like it may be a bit closer than last week's New York primary, which Clinton ended up winning by 16 points. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM. 

Maryland (95) Polls here have consistently placed Clinton in the upper 50's, averaging 57% to Sanders 35%. Looks like an easy win here for Clinton. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM.

Connecticut (55) Polling has been limited here. All three surveys out in recent weeks give Clinton a single-digit lead, although the latest one, out Monday, is only 2 points, well within the margin of error.

Rhode Island (24) A poll out Monday gives Sanders a four point lead; it is the only current poll in any of the five states to show him leading. However, a separate poll out Sunday has Clinton ahead by 9. Polls close at 8PM; opening time appears to be 7AM in most of the state.

Delaware (21) The only poll, released last week, has Clinton up by 7. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM. 

If things play out roughly this way, Clinton will end the day about 300 ahead in pledged delegates. Factoring in superdelegates, she will only need about 200 more delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination. After Tuesday, the calendar gets lighter for the next several weeks, before culminating in June 7, a day that includes the huge California primary.

California polling has been pretty competitive. Additionally, there probably aren't enough delegates available before June 7 for Clinton to clinch outright (barring a commitment by most of the remaining superdelegates). Taken together, it leaves an opening for the Sanders campaign to continue until the end of the primary season should it so choose. His position could be strengthened by a win in California, although Clinton will likely clinch the nomination that day. 

* Assumes the vote in each congressional district mirrors the statewide vote. This is unlikely to be the case, but with only two candidates involved, some of the differences should offset.

** In states with only a single congressional district, a proxy is sometimes used to create a similar regional split. In Delaware, the state does this by creating four subdivisions. There is one each for Kent and Sussex County, with New Castle County split into Wilmington and the remainder.


Cruz, Kasich Team Up to Block Trump's Path to 1237 Delegates

April 25, 2016

Politico reports that "Ted Cruz and John Kasich have begun coordinating their campaign strategy to stop Donald Trump, an abrupt alliance announced Sunday night that includes Kasich quitting his efforts in Indiana and Cruz clearing a path for the Ohio governor in Oregon and New Mexico."

The Trump campaign fired back, blasting the "collusion" between the two campaigns.

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270toWin: On its face, this deal would seem to benefit Cruz much more than Kasich, although its unclear how much overall impact it will have (or how long it will last). It might make a difference in Indiana, where recent polling shows a fairly competitive race between Trump and Cruz. That state offers 57 delegates that are winner take all (30 based on state result, 3 in each of the 9 congressional districts).

New Mexico and Oregon are much later on the primary calendar, and have smaller delegate pools that are proportionately allocated. Notably, the largest delegate prize -- California on June 7 -- is excluded. 


Public Policy: Trump Will Win Easily in PA, CT, RI; Looks Much Closer for Dems

April 25, 2016

On the eve of Tuesday's five-state primary, Public Policy Polling has released a set of polls for three of those contests. The firm surveyed Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Rhode Island.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump looks to have a very good day. He's above 50% in all three states, about 25 points ahead of his closest competitor. Trump also shows much higher favorability ratings in these three states.

These three states will account for 64 pledged delegates on Tuesday. Pennsylvania has an additional 54 unbound delegates that will be elected directly. Tuesday's other two contests, Maryland and Delaware will account for another 54 delegates. Things look pretty promising for Trump in those locations as well. Our full preview of Tuesday's Republican contests can be found here.

For the Democrats, the poll finds a mixed bag Tuesday. Hillary Clinton has a ten-point lead in Pennsylvania, while Connecticut is nearly tied. In Rhode Island, Sanders leads by four.

These results are a bit more favorable for Sanders than other recent polling, although there has not been much available outside Pennsylvania.  That said, the Keystone State has almost as many delegates as Tuesday's four other contests combined, so the poll's findings, even if exactly right, will result in a nice delegate bump for Clinton. Our full preview of Tuesday's Democratic contests will be out later Monday.


Republican Polling Update for Tuesday's East Coast Primaries

April 23, 2016

Voters in five Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states head to the polls on April 26th as the primary schedule remains on the East Coast after this past Tuesday's New York primary. As in that state, the demographics and polls point toward another good day for Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. 

Trump currently leads the Republican field with 845 delegates, nearly 300 ahead of Ted Cruz. After New York, Trump is the only candidate with a plausible path to gathering the required 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination prior to the Republican Convention. 118 pledged delegates will be up for grabs on Tuesday, with another 54 unbound delegates being elected directly (in Pennsylvania). 

A recap of where things currently stand for each contest follows, including a discussion of the delegate allocation procedure, as we understand it. The poll hours, all Eastern time, are believed accurate, but you should not rely on them to vote. (It does look like the polls close at 8PM in all five states). Click/tap a state name for more details.  

Pennsylvania The state will send 71 delegates to the Convention, although only 17 will be bound to the winner of Tuesday's statewide vote. The remaining 54 will be directly elected, three in each of the state's 18 congressional districts. These delegates are unbound, although they can make their leanings known in advance of the election. Polling points to a Trump win statewide: He's averaging in the mid 40s, with Cruz and Kasich in a tight battle for 2nd, some 20 points back. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM. 

Maryland 14 of 38 delgates will go to the statewide winner. The remaining 24 will be allocated, in groups of 3, to the winner of each of the state's eight congressional districts. Trump has led all recent polling, and is averaging 41%, 14 points ahead of Kasich, who is slightly ahead of Cruz. Trump has led every poll this year, currently averaging about 10 points over Cruz. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM.

Connecticut The state has 28 delegates. 13 of these will be based on the statewide result. If Trump exceeds 50% (he's just under that in limited polling), he'll earn those 13. Otherwise, they'll be allocated proportionately among any candidate reaching 20%. The state's five congressional districts are winner take all, 3 per district. It appears the polls are open from 6AM to 8PM. 

Rhode Island The state has 19 delegates to be allocated to those meeting a 10% threshold. There's been no recent polling; a new poll from Brown University is expected on Sunday. 13 delegates will be distributed proportionately based on the statewide vote. The other six will be based on the two congressional districts. Best as we can tell, each of the three candidates will end up with two of these. Polls close at 8PM; opening time appears to be 7AM in most of the state.

Delaware The 16 delegates go to the statewide winner. The only poll, released earlier in the week, showed Trump far ahead of the other candidates. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM. 

Taken together, it looks like Trump is positioned to pick up 90-100 of those 118 delegates on Tuesday. Use our interactive delegate calculator to see if you can get him to 1,237.


Change History: Interactive Maps for All 57 Presidential Elections Now Available

April 22, 2016

We've launched the remaining interactive historical maps. These 57 maps let you alter the course of history by changing the outcome of any prior presidential election. You can modify results, winners and election participants.

2012 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988  
1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 1964 1960  
1956 1952 1948 1944 1940 1936 1932  
1928 1924 1920 1916 1912 1908 1904  
1900 1896 1892 1888 1884 1880 1876  
1872 1868 1864 1860 1856 1852 1848  
1844 1840 1836 1832 1828 1824 1820
1816 1812 1808 1804 1800 1796 1792 1789

The first competitive election:

The first election decided in House of Representatives:

 

Abraham Lincoln is elected on the eve of Civil War:

 

Florida, Florida, Florida:


Trump, Clinton Dominate New York Primary; Move Closer to a November Face Off

April 20, 2016

Outperforming even the most favorable polls, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton scored huge victories in Tuesday's New York primary, significantly expanding their delegate leads while reestablising themselves as clear frontrunners to meet in the November general election. 

Republican: Earning over 60% of the vote, Trump won at least 89 of the state's 95 delegates. John Kasich finished 2nd, with 3 delegates. As of this morning, 3 delegates remain to be awarded. The win gives Trump an almost 300 delegate lead over Ted Cruz. The Kasich delegates were the first he's earned since winning his home state of Ohio in mid-March. Kasich remains behind Marco Rubio, who has long since departed the race. Trump needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination, while the path for Cruz, outside a contested convention, has become nearly mathematically impossible. 

Looking ahead, the calendar remains quite favorable for Trump. 172 delegates will be up for grabs in 5 Eastern states next Tuesday. Trump leads where polling is available, with averages north of 40%. 

 

Pennsylvania has 54 additional delegates not shown on the above chart. These will be elected directly and are unbound, although they can make their leanings known in advance. 

Democrat: Clinton also outperformed the polls, beating Sanders by 16 points. The win gave her 135 delegates while Sanders picked up 104. Eight delegates remain to be awarded. While proportional allocation gave Clinton only 30 more delegates than Sanders, a large number of delegates are now off the table, which makes the math increasingly difficult for Sanders. Clinton is now within 500 delegates of clinching the nomination; she needs about 29% of the remaining delegates. Next Tuesday offers five contests, with just under 400 pledged delegates, including almost 200 pledged delegates alone in Pennsylvania (210 including superdelegates).  We'd expect Clinton to have over 2,100 delegates by the completion of these contests.  


Clinton Looks to Regain Momentum in New York; Move Closer to Clinching Nomination

April 19, 2016

The presidential election calendar has shifted east, and picks back up with today's New York primary. This will be followed by primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island next Tuesday. This is friendlier territory for the two frontrunners, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. 

New York: The polls are open 6AM to 9PM Eastern Time in New York City and surrounding counties: Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, and Orange. Those hours are also in effect in Erie County (Buffalo area). For the rest of the state, polls are open noon to 9PM.

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Democratic Primary: Polling has been very consistent in the Empire State, with almost every survey in recent weeks showing Clinton between 51 and 55%, Sanders in the low 40's. On average, it's a 12 point, 54-42 lead for Clinton. Given the number of polls and the lack of variability, it would seem Clinton is likely to win here. That said, Sanders has been on a bit of a roll in recent weeks, winning 7 of the last 8 events. We've also seen his campaign defy expectations, as in Michigan where the Vermont Senator won despite being down by over 20 points in the polls.

 

New York has 291 delegates, more than 10% of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination. 247 of those will be awarded based on Tuesday's primary, with superdelegates making up the remaining 44. Of the 247, 163 will come from the state's 27 congressional districts, with each district having 5-7 delegates. 84 will be awarded based on the statewide vote. As in all Democratic contests, the allocation statewide, and in each district, will be proportional, subject to a 15% minimum vote to receive any delegates.

Clinton enters the day with a 1,776 to 1,125 lead on Sanders, including committed superdelegates. 34 of New York's 44 superdelegates are included in the committed number. If the polls are accurate, and assuming each district votes in the same proportion (that won't happen, but with just two candidates, some of the differences will cancel each other out), Clinton would end up with about 135 of the 247 awarded today, Sanders 112. While that difference isn't huge, it would move Clinton much closer to the nomination. Starting the day needing about 1/3 of the remaining delegates, she would need fewer than 25% if this scenario plays out.

Visit our Democratic Nomination page for more details, including delegate counts and maps, as well as links to detail on each Democratic primary/cacucus.


Trump Poised for Easy New York Win, Most of State's 95 Delegates

April 19, 2016

The presidential election calendar has shifted east, and picks back up with today's New York primary. This will be followed by primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island next Tuesday. This is friendlier territory for the two frontrunners, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. 

New York: The polls are open 6AM to 9PM Eastern Time in New York City and surrounding counties: Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, and Orange. Those hours are also in effect in Erie County (Buffalo area). For the rest of the state, polls are open noon to 9PM.

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Republican Primary: Barring a polling error of historic proportions, Donald Trump will cruise to an easy win here today. In the final 270toWin Republican polling average, Trump has 53%, 30 points ahead of John Kasich and 35 points ahead of Ted Cruz. 

 

New York has 95 delegates, 14 of which are awarded based on the statewide vote, with 81 (3 per) coming from the state's 27 congressional districts. Trump's win will most likely net him between 75 and 85 of these. The exact number will depend on if/where Trump wins the majority of the vote and where the other candidates are held below 20%. We reprint our flowcharts below; click/tap them for a full explanation of the allocation process.

 

After today, Trump will likely need fewer than 50% of the remaining unawarded delegates to secure the nomination, while Cruz will need over 90%. Visit our Republican Nomination page for more details, including delegate counts and maps, as well as links to detail on each Republican primary/cacucus and an interactive delegate calculator.



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