Election News

'Gold Standard' Marquette Wisconsin Poll to Be Released Today

March 30, 2016

This afternoon, Marquette University Law School will release its final poll before next Tuesday's Wisconsin Republican primary. In the school's last survey, in late February, Donald Trump held a 30%-19% lead over Ted Cruz, with John Kasich below 10%. 

A few polls out in the interim have shown a tightening race, with Trump and Cruz now tied in the 270toWin polling average, while John Kasich has been gaining significant ground.

The Marquette poll is seen by many as the 'gold standard' in Wisconsin, so it will be interesting to see where it ends up.

Wisconsin has 42 delegates, 18 are winner take all for the statewide winner, while the other 24 are winner take all based on the vote within each of the state's 8 congressional districts (3 per district).

There has been less polling for the Democratic primary. The last Marquette survey showed the race a dead heat. 

The poll often includes general election match-ups as well.



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Sanders Sweeps Three Saturday Caucuses, Narrowing Clinton's Delegate Lead

March 27, 2016

Bernie Sanders cruised to easy wins in all three Democratic caucus states Saturday, surpassing 1,000 total delegates in the process. The Vermont Senator received about 70% of the vote in Washington state and Hawaii, while scoring north of 80% in vote equivalents in Alaska. Sanders won 30 of the 41 total Alaska/Hawaii delegates and, at this point, has won 25 of 34 allocated delegates in Washington.

Here's where things stand as of this morning. Sanders has narrowed Clinton's lead by 35 delegates:

Another 67 delegates remain to be allocated in Washington. An estimate by The Greenpapers (as of Sunday AM) gives Sanders a 74-27 total for the state, meaning he would win about 49 of the remaining 67 delegates there.

Despite the good night for Sanders, Clinton now needs less than 1/3 of the remaining delegates to reach 2,383 and secure the Democratic nomination. For Sanders to have a real shot, he'll need to build on Saturday's performance in Wisconsin on April 5 and then, more importantly, in the Northeast later in April. Wisconsin is certainly doable; but Sanders trails badly in delegate-rich New York (April 19) and in many of the April 26 statesThe Sanders campaign is planning a strong push in New York.


Washington State, Hawaii, Alaska Democratic Caucuses Today

March 26, 2016

Democratic caucuses are being held today in Washington state, Alaska and Hawaii. No polling to go on, but Sanders has generally done well in caucus states, particularly those with smaller minority populations. 

Heading into today, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 1,223 to 920 in delegates won at events; the totals are 1,691 to 949 when superdelegates that have committed to one candidate or the other are included. 2,383 delegates are needed to win the Democratic nomination.

As a reminder, all Democratic contests allocate delegates on a proportional basis, with some of those delegates allocated on an at-large basis, the remainder based on results in each individual congressional district. There is a 15% minimum to qualify for any delegates. 

Washington: By far the largest prize on Saturday, with 101 delegates up for grabs. The Seattle Times reports that caucuses run from 10AM to about noon, Pacific Time (1-3PM ET). That may mean we'll have some results during the afternoon.

Hawaii: The state, one of the most liberal in the nation, will award 25 delegates today. This WSJ article points out that the state's large Asian popoulation could provide some early insight into how California will vote in June. (Not sure about that given that California is a primary and 2 1/2 months away, but an interesting premise). The caucus (actually they are calling it a 'Presidential Preference Poll') begins at 1PM local time (7PM ET).

Alaska: The smallest of the day's events, the state will award 16 delegates. Alaska only has one congressional district. Caucuses begin at 10AM local time (2PM ET).

After today, the next event on the Democratic calendar is the April 5 Wisconsin primary.


Six National Polls This Week Show Sanders, Kasich Perform Best in November Match-Ups

March 24, 2016

Many notable pollsters have picked this week to release national polls looking at prospective match-ups for the November election. The main takeaway appears to be: The less likely a candidate is to get his or her party's nomination, the better they perform in the general election.

 

 

On the Republican side, John Kasich swept all 6 polls when pitted against Hillary Clinton, winning by an average of 6.5 points. On the other end of the spectrum, both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton average a double-digit lead over Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. The closest match-up for Democratic frontrunner Clinton appears to be with Ted Cruz. 

While these numbers are interesting, they ultimately don't tell us much. Trailing for their party's nominations, Kasich and Sanders have been subject to fewer attacks and are still not as well-known across party lines as Clinton and Trump, who both consistently have high unfavorable ratings in polls. In addition, the only polls that ultimately matter are those at the state level


New Poll Points to Competitive Wisconsin Primary

March 23, 2016

As attention begins to turn toward April contests, a new poll shows a competitive primary for both parties shaping up in Wisconsin. The study, from Emerson College gives Ted Cruz a 36-35 lead over Donald Trump on the Republican side, while Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 50-44 for the Democrats.

These are the first polls in the state since the last release by the respected Marquette University Law School in late February. At that time, Marquette found Trump with a 10 point lead over Marco Rubio, who has since left the race and 11 points over Ted Cruz. The Democratic race was essentially tied. We would expect a new Marquette survey next week, in advance of the April 5 Wisconsin primaries.

Emerson also took a look at a few match-ups for November, finding that either Democrat would beat Donald Trump by 9 points. Clinton and Cruz were separated by just one point.


Cruz, Trump Split As Sanders Takes 2 of 3 From Clinton - Updated Delegate Counts

March 23, 2016

Tuesday saw Ted Cruz easily win in Utah while Donald Trump did the same in winner take all Arizona. The main question of the night was whether Cruz could exceed 50% in Utah, the threshold for making it also winner take all. Cruz ended up near 70%. As a result, the night saw Trump win 59 delegates, Cruz 41. Both figures include a committed delegate from American Samoa. John Kasich was shut out for the night.

Trump increased his lead slightly and is now about 500 delegates away from the 1,237 needed. He needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to avoid a contested convention.

It was a good night for Bernie Sanders who cruised to victory in both Utah and Idaho caucuses. Hillary Clinton won Arizona. Sanders gained slightly in the delegate race, earning 57 delegates to Clinton's 51. Clinton needs about 600 delegates to reach 2,383 and win the nomination. That's about 1/3 of the remaining delegates.

 

This weekend sees three additional Democratic caucuses. The largest, by far, is the Washington state one with 118 delegates. Alaska and Hawaii will also hold their events. Based on other Western caucuses, Sanders should do well in Washington and Alaska; a little less clear how Hawaii will shake out. On the Republican side, the election calendar is quiet until the Wisconsin primary on April 5. North Dakota Republicans have a convention the first weekend in April to select delegates for the national convention in July. However, any candidate preferences noted by those delegates are not binding.


Cruz Exceeds 50% to Sweep All Utah Delegates; Gets Bush Endorsement

March 23, 2016

Ted Cruz easily won the Utah caucuses on Tuesday night; easily surpassing the 50% threshold to win all of that state's 40 delegates. He also won the support of a delegate in the American Samoa caucus. Unfortunately for the Texas Senator, Donald Trump increased his delegate lead slightly by taking Arizona and its 58 winner take all delegates. 

Cruz now needs to win about 82% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination outright before the Cleveland convention.

Separately, Jeb Bush endorsed Cruz this morning. In his endorsement, Bush said "For the sake of our party and country, we must move to overcome the divisiveness and vulgarity Donald Trump has brought into the political arena, or we will certainly lose our chance to defeat the Democratic nominee and reverse President Obama’s failed policies.”  

A summary of the overnight delegate counts thus far:

 


Utah, Arizona Highlight Tuesday's Election Calendar; More Democratic Caucuses Saturday

March 20, 2016

Monday Update: An Arizona Republican poll today gave Trump 46% to 33% for Cruz. This is Trump's highest number to date, although the 13 point margin is pretty similar to other polls. In Utah, a new poll gives Cruz 42% to Trump's 21% with Kasich at 13%. This is quite a bit different than the poll out over the weekend that had Cruz over 50% (that threshold needed to win all the state's delegates) and Trump at 11%. On the Democratic side in Utah, the first poll since January gives Sanders an 8 point lead over Clinton. The Utah polls are a small sample size, so caution is warranted.

See below for more info and links to the specific primary/caucus pages on our site.

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This week, voters in Arizona will head to the polls on Tuesday, while Utahns will caucus that same day. In addition, the Democrats will hold caucuses in Idaho and there will be a Republican convention in American Samoa. On Saturday the 26th, Democrats will caucus in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington. Given the time differences, it will likely be late into the evening, at the earliest, before those on the east coast see any results.

Where We Stand

Trump has 678 delegates. He needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to win the Republican nomination before the convention in July. Cruz is next at 423. These numbers include a reallocation of Rubio's 5 Alaska delegates, 3 of whom went to Trump, 2 to Cruz.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won all five of last Tuesday's contests and has opened up a significant lead over Bernie Sanders, particularly when committed superdelegates are included. That said, the calendar is quite a bit friendlier to the Vermont Senator over the next several weeks, with numerous Western caucus events and the Wisconsin primary on April 5.  

Republican

Arizona Primary The state awards 58 winner take all delegates. Polling has been pretty limited. What there has been gives Trump a low double-digit lead over Cruz. However, Republicans on the ground indicate the race is going to be very close. (Projection: Leaning Trump. The race is probably tightening but this shift needs to be enough to overcome significant early voting in the state). 

Utah Caucus A new poll (the only one we have to go on) gives Cruz 53%, Kasich 29% and Trump 11%. The state has 40 delegates that will be awarded based on various thresholds. If this poll is exactly right, Cruz will win all 40 based on exceeding 50%. If no candidate gets to 50%, the key threshold is number of candidates that reach 15%. If all three reach 15%, they'll proportionately split all the delegates. If only two reach that mark, all candidates, regardless of vote, will split. Since only three candidates remain and since Utah reallocates delegates earned by those that have dropped out, it appears the proportional allocation will essentially be the same regardless of whether only two or all three reach 15%. Update: Projection is likely Cruz; unclear whether he crosses 50%.

Nine delegates are also available in American Samoa. 

Democrat

All Democratic contests allocate delegates (except superdelegates) on a roughly proportional basis, some based on the statewide result, some based on results in individual Congressional Districts (for states with more than one District).

Arizona Primary Hillary Clinton appears to have a significant lead; crossing 50% in the two most recent polls. The state has 85 delegates. (Projection: Likely Clinton). 

Utah Caucus The only poll here, from mid-January, gave Clinton a 10 point lead. Probably wouldn't put much faith in that given that Sanders has outperfomed expectations since voting began in early February, and he's done particularly well in caucus states. 37 delegates. (Projection: Toss-up). Update: Based on new poll that has Sanders up by 8, and performance in other caucus states, will move to Lean Sanders.

Idaho Caucus No polling here; probably reasonable to see an outcome similar to that of Utah. 27 delegates. (Projection: Toss-up). Update: Still no polling, but given Utah move think this is also a Lean Sanders.

The caucus results on Tuesday will likely be somewhat instructive for Saturday's caucuses in Washington and Alaska. It's less clear what they mean for Hawaii. Washington, with 118, is the most delegate-rich state for the Democrats this upcoming week. 


New Feature: Candidate Delegate Maps; % Remaining Delegates Needed

March 18, 2016

A new set of maps lets you see how each of the remaining candidates has performed in primary and caucus contests, including order of finish and delegates won. For events still to come, the total delegates are shown. 

Republican Candidate Delegate Maps     Democratic Candidate Delegate Maps

Delegate counts are from the New York Times and are subject to change, particularly for recent events. For example, only a portion of Missouri delegates have been awarded thus far. The maps will update as we get more information.

The active candidate's map is highlighted in green; click/tap to change to another candidate. This area also shows a summary of total delegates won by each candidate, and the percentage of remaining delegates needed to clinch the party's nomination. A value >100% means a candidate cannot* clinch the nomination prior to the party convention.

The Republican map, with Trump active, is shown below.

 

* Barring some unforseen circumstance. On the Democratic side, this assumes superdelegates remain with the candidate they have committed to support.


What Happens To Rubio's Delegates?

March 17, 2016

Marco Rubio had won 169 delegates when he suspended his campaign earlier this week; other candidates had won 15*. The disposition of these delegates may end up being important if no candidate reaches the required 1,237 to win the Republican nomination. 

As with most delegate-related issues, it turns out the answer varies by state. We found this very helpful infographic in today's Wall Street Journal that lays it out nicely. (The graphic is on page A4 of the paper; we haven't been able to find it online except in the WSJ ereader ). 

The graphic displays the four methods for what happens to these 184 delegates through the first round at the convention. Those are listed below, along with a couple notes.

  • Delegates are bound to the candidate (39 of the 184): Iowa is one of the states with this method; all but five of the non-Rubio delegates are in this category.
  • Candidate can keep or release delegates (42): Rubio controls 40 of these; Carson two. Carson has endorsed Donald Trump.
  • Delegates become free agents (98): If you're one of these people, you'll likely be hearing from the campaigns.
  • Delegates get re-allocated proportionately (5): Alaska only; depending on exact rounding rules, either Trump or Cruz will get three of these, with the other getting two. Kasich finished below the 13% threshold to qualify. Update: Trump was allocated 3, Cruz 2. Update 2: Rubio's request for the return of these five delegates was granted.

For more coverage of the campaign from The Wall Street Journal, visit their online politics section.

*Carson 8; Bush 4; Fiorina, Huckabee, Paul 1 each



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