Election News

Cruz, Kasich Team Up to Block Trump's Path to 1237 Delegates

April 25, 2016

Politico reports that "Ted Cruz and John Kasich have begun coordinating their campaign strategy to stop Donald Trump, an abrupt alliance announced Sunday night that includes Kasich quitting his efforts in Indiana and Cruz clearing a path for the Ohio governor in Oregon and New Mexico."

The Trump campaign fired back, blasting the "collusion" between the two campaigns.

==

270toWin: On its face, this deal would seem to benefit Cruz much more than Kasich, although its unclear how much overall impact it will have (or how long it will last). It might make a difference in Indiana, where recent polling shows a fairly competitive race between Trump and Cruz. That state offers 57 delegates that are winner take all (30 based on state result, 3 in each of the 9 congressional districts).

New Mexico and Oregon are much later on the primary calendar, and have smaller delegate pools that are proportionately allocated. Notably, the largest delegate prize -- California on June 7 -- is excluded. 



Headlines From Political Wire

Koch Network Promises Millions to Block Health Bill

“The conservative Koch network is promising to spend millions of dollars to defeat the health care overhaul backed by President Donald Trump and...

Republicans Quickly Rewriting Much of Health Bill

“Just hours before an expected Thursday vote in the House, congressional Republicans are considering massive changes to insurance coverage without...

FBI Has Information on Trump Coordination with Russia

“The FBI has information that indicates associates of President Trump communicated with suspected Russian operatives to possibly coordinate the release...

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

“I can’t go into the particulars, but there is more than circumstantial evidence now.” — Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), quoted by Politico, on...

Senate Landscape Not As Rosy for GOP As It Once Was

Stuart Rothenberg: “If Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 presidential election, the GOP would now be headed to a dramatic 6-8 seat Senate gain next...

Public Policy: Trump Will Win Easily in PA, CT, RI; Looks Much Closer for Dems

April 25, 2016

On the eve of Tuesday's five-state primary, Public Policy Polling has released a set of polls for three of those contests. The firm surveyed Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Rhode Island.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump looks to have a very good day. He's above 50% in all three states, about 25 points ahead of his closest competitor. Trump also shows much higher favorability ratings in these three states.

These three states will account for 64 pledged delegates on Tuesday. Pennsylvania has an additional 54 unbound delegates that will be elected directly. Tuesday's other two contests, Maryland and Delaware will account for another 54 delegates. Things look pretty promising for Trump in those locations as well. Our full preview of Tuesday's Republican contests can be found here.

For the Democrats, the poll finds a mixed bag Tuesday. Hillary Clinton has a ten-point lead in Pennsylvania, while Connecticut is nearly tied. In Rhode Island, Sanders leads by four.

These results are a bit more favorable for Sanders than other recent polling, although there has not been much available outside Pennsylvania.  That said, the Keystone State has almost as many delegates as Tuesday's four other contests combined, so the poll's findings, even if exactly right, will result in a nice delegate bump for Clinton. Our full preview of Tuesday's Democratic contests will be out later Monday.


Republican Polling Update for Tuesday's East Coast Primaries

April 23, 2016

Voters in five Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states head to the polls on April 26th as the primary schedule remains on the East Coast after this past Tuesday's New York primary. As in that state, the demographics and polls point toward another good day for Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. 

Trump currently leads the Republican field with 845 delegates, nearly 300 ahead of Ted Cruz. After New York, Trump is the only candidate with a plausible path to gathering the required 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination prior to the Republican Convention. 118 pledged delegates will be up for grabs on Tuesday, with another 54 unbound delegates being elected directly (in Pennsylvania). 

A recap of where things currently stand for each contest follows, including a discussion of the delegate allocation procedure, as we understand it. The poll hours, all Eastern time, are believed accurate, but you should not rely on them to vote. (It does look like the polls close at 8PM in all five states). Click/tap a state name for more details.  

Pennsylvania The state will send 71 delegates to the Convention, although only 17 will be bound to the winner of Tuesday's statewide vote. The remaining 54 will be directly elected, three in each of the state's 18 congressional districts. These delegates are unbound, although they can make their leanings known in advance of the election. Polling points to a Trump win statewide: He's averaging in the mid 40s, with Cruz and Kasich in a tight battle for 2nd, some 20 points back. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM. 

Maryland 14 of 38 delgates will go to the statewide winner. The remaining 24 will be allocated, in groups of 3, to the winner of each of the state's eight congressional districts. Trump has led all recent polling, and is averaging 41%, 14 points ahead of Kasich, who is slightly ahead of Cruz. Trump has led every poll this year, currently averaging about 10 points over Cruz. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM.

Connecticut The state has 28 delegates. 13 of these will be based on the statewide result. If Trump exceeds 50% (he's just under that in limited polling), he'll earn those 13. Otherwise, they'll be allocated proportionately among any candidate reaching 20%. The state's five congressional districts are winner take all, 3 per district. It appears the polls are open from 6AM to 8PM. 

Rhode Island The state has 19 delegates to be allocated to those meeting a 10% threshold. There's been no recent polling; a new poll from Brown University is expected on Sunday. 13 delegates will be distributed proportionately based on the statewide vote. The other six will be based on the two congressional districts. Best as we can tell, each of the three candidates will end up with two of these. Polls close at 8PM; opening time appears to be 7AM in most of the state.

Delaware The 16 delegates go to the statewide winner. The only poll, released earlier in the week, showed Trump far ahead of the other candidates. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM. 

Taken together, it looks like Trump is positioned to pick up 90-100 of those 118 delegates on Tuesday. Use our interactive delegate calculator to see if you can get him to 1,237.


Change History: Interactive Maps for All 57 Presidential Elections Now Available

April 22, 2016

We've launched the remaining interactive historical maps. These 57 maps let you alter the course of history by changing the outcome of any prior presidential election. You can modify results, winners and election participants.

2012 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988  
1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 1964 1960  
1956 1952 1948 1944 1940 1936 1932  
1928 1924 1920 1916 1912 1908 1904  
1900 1896 1892 1888 1884 1880 1876  
1872 1868 1864 1860 1856 1852 1848  
1844 1840 1836 1832 1828 1824 1820
1816 1812 1808 1804 1800 1796 1792 1789

The first competitive election:

The first election decided in House of Representatives:

 

Abraham Lincoln is elected on the eve of Civil War:

 

Florida, Florida, Florida:


Trump, Clinton Dominate New York Primary; Move Closer to a November Face Off

April 20, 2016

Outperforming even the most favorable polls, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton scored huge victories in Tuesday's New York primary, significantly expanding their delegate leads while reestablising themselves as clear frontrunners to meet in the November general election. 

Republican: Earning over 60% of the vote, Trump won at least 89 of the state's 95 delegates. John Kasich finished 2nd, with 3 delegates. As of this morning, 3 delegates remain to be awarded. The win gives Trump an almost 300 delegate lead over Ted Cruz. The Kasich delegates were the first he's earned since winning his home state of Ohio in mid-March. Kasich remains behind Marco Rubio, who has long since departed the race. Trump needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination, while the path for Cruz, outside a contested convention, has become nearly mathematically impossible. 

Looking ahead, the calendar remains quite favorable for Trump. 172 delegates will be up for grabs in 5 Eastern states next Tuesday. Trump leads where polling is available, with averages north of 40%. 

 

Pennsylvania has 54 additional delegates not shown on the above chart. These will be elected directly and are unbound, although they can make their leanings known in advance. 

Democrat: Clinton also outperformed the polls, beating Sanders by 16 points. The win gave her 135 delegates while Sanders picked up 104. Eight delegates remain to be awarded. While proportional allocation gave Clinton only 30 more delegates than Sanders, a large number of delegates are now off the table, which makes the math increasingly difficult for Sanders. Clinton is now within 500 delegates of clinching the nomination; she needs about 29% of the remaining delegates. Next Tuesday offers five contests, with just under 400 pledged delegates, including almost 200 pledged delegates alone in Pennsylvania (210 including superdelegates).  We'd expect Clinton to have over 2,100 delegates by the completion of these contests.  


Clinton Looks to Regain Momentum in New York; Move Closer to Clinching Nomination

April 19, 2016

The presidential election calendar has shifted east, and picks back up with today's New York primary. This will be followed by primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island next Tuesday. This is friendlier territory for the two frontrunners, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. 

New York: The polls are open 6AM to 9PM Eastern Time in New York City and surrounding counties: Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, and Orange. Those hours are also in effect in Erie County (Buffalo area). For the rest of the state, polls are open noon to 9PM.

==

Democratic Primary: Polling has been very consistent in the Empire State, with almost every survey in recent weeks showing Clinton between 51 and 55%, Sanders in the low 40's. On average, it's a 12 point, 54-42 lead for Clinton. Given the number of polls and the lack of variability, it would seem Clinton is likely to win here. That said, Sanders has been on a bit of a roll in recent weeks, winning 7 of the last 8 events. We've also seen his campaign defy expectations, as in Michigan where the Vermont Senator won despite being down by over 20 points in the polls.

 

New York has 291 delegates, more than 10% of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination. 247 of those will be awarded based on Tuesday's primary, with superdelegates making up the remaining 44. Of the 247, 163 will come from the state's 27 congressional districts, with each district having 5-7 delegates. 84 will be awarded based on the statewide vote. As in all Democratic contests, the allocation statewide, and in each district, will be proportional, subject to a 15% minimum vote to receive any delegates.

Clinton enters the day with a 1,776 to 1,125 lead on Sanders, including committed superdelegates. 34 of New York's 44 superdelegates are included in the committed number. If the polls are accurate, and assuming each district votes in the same proportion (that won't happen, but with just two candidates, some of the differences will cancel each other out), Clinton would end up with about 135 of the 247 awarded today, Sanders 112. While that difference isn't huge, it would move Clinton much closer to the nomination. Starting the day needing about 1/3 of the remaining delegates, she would need fewer than 25% if this scenario plays out.

Visit our Democratic Nomination page for more details, including delegate counts and maps, as well as links to detail on each Democratic primary/cacucus.


Trump Poised for Easy New York Win, Most of State's 95 Delegates

April 19, 2016

The presidential election calendar has shifted east, and picks back up with today's New York primary. This will be followed by primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island next Tuesday. This is friendlier territory for the two frontrunners, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. 

New York: The polls are open 6AM to 9PM Eastern Time in New York City and surrounding counties: Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, and Orange. Those hours are also in effect in Erie County (Buffalo area). For the rest of the state, polls are open noon to 9PM.

==

Republican Primary: Barring a polling error of historic proportions, Donald Trump will cruise to an easy win here today. In the final 270toWin Republican polling average, Trump has 53%, 30 points ahead of John Kasich and 35 points ahead of Ted Cruz. 

 

New York has 95 delegates, 14 of which are awarded based on the statewide vote, with 81 (3 per) coming from the state's 27 congressional districts. Trump's win will most likely net him between 75 and 85 of these. The exact number will depend on if/where Trump wins the majority of the vote and where the other candidates are held below 20%. We reprint our flowcharts below; click/tap them for a full explanation of the allocation process.

 

After today, Trump will likely need fewer than 50% of the remaining unawarded delegates to secure the nomination, while Cruz will need over 90%. Visit our Republican Nomination page for more details, including delegate counts and maps, as well as links to detail on each Republican primary/cacucus and an interactive delegate calculator.


How Many Delegates Will Trump Win in New York? A Recent Poll May Shed Some Light

April 16, 2016

A large-sample poll out Thursday from Optimus showed Donald Trump winning each of New York's 27 congressional districts in this Tuesday's primary, but falling just short of 50% statewide.  If this poll proves accurate, what does it tell us about how the state's 95 delegates will be allocated?

For a quick recap of how New York allocates delegates, see the bottom of this article. It is an abbreviated version of our earlier discussion on the topic.

Statewide Poll Results: Trump received just under 49% in this poll, Kasich about 24% and Cruz about 14%. Since Trump had less than a majority in this poll, he would split the 14 statewide delegates proportionately with Kasich, the only other candidate at or above 20%. This would yield 9 delegates for Trump, 5 for Kasich.

District Results: Trump leads in all 27 districts, finishing above 50% in 11 of them. He would earn 3 delegates in those 11 districts and 2 in the other 16, for a total of 65 delegates. For those 16 districts where Trump had less than a majority, Kasich finished 2nd in 14 of them, Cruz 2nd in the other two. Those 2nd place candidates earn one delegate each.

 

Summing it all up, if these were the exact outcomes, Trump would receive an estimated 74 of the state's delegates, Kasich 19 and Cruz 2. One big caveat is that this is the only Republican New York poll, aside from another Optimus poll, that holds Trump under 50% statewide since early March. Therefore, barring a late shift, this poll might reflect something closer to a worst-case scenario for the Republican frontrunner. 

If Trump were to exceed 50% statewide, he'd get the other 5 state delegates and, depending on how far above 50% he actually was, he'd likely move over 50% in additional districts. The poll indicates he's within 3 points of 50% in 6 additional districts. If the actual vote breaks that way, Trump would be at roughly 85 delegates. 

New York Allocation Methodology

Statewide Vote: 14 delegates will be allocated based on the primary results across the state. A candidate getting a majority of the vote gets them all. Otherwise, the 14 are allocated proportionately across any candidates reaching 20%.

Congressional District Vote: For each district, a victory with >50% of the vote, or if only one candidate receives 20%, nets 3 delegates. Otherwise, the candidate with the most votes gets two delegates, the candidate in 2nd place receives one. 

  

 


Battle For Senate Control: State Of The Race Mid-April

April 13, 2016

After the presidential election, the battle for control of the Senate will likely be the largest political story of this election season. Republicans are currently in the majority with 54 seats, Democrats control 46. Depending on who wins the White House, Democrats will need to gain either 4 or 5 seats to take the gavel from Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.  

We've summarized the current state of the race in the table below. Use our 2016 interactive Senate map to review the current Senate, make an election forecast, and then see the 2017 Senate based on your prediction.

 

The left part of the table shows the 17 potentially competitive races in 2016; Iowa has been added to the list since our last look in February. these are the seats that will determine control of the Senate. For a race to be in this list, at least one of three professional pundits needed to see the race as at least somewhat competitive. The other 17 seats were seen as safe for the incumbent party by all three; these are listed to the bottom right. The most competitive races are highlighted in green. These are races where at least one pro sees the race as leaning or toss-up.

In the top right, we've summarized what it all means. More than 70% (24 of 34) of the seats to be contested this year are currently held by Republicans, with the composition of safe seats much closer to 50-50. This puts the Democratic floor at 43 seats, Republicans at 40 or, put another way, 3 Democratic seats are at risk, while 14 Republican ones are in play. 

Six of the races are seen as likely (or even safe) by the pros. These are less likely to end up as competitive. If we adjust for that, we end up with a 'Likely' floor of 45 for Republicans, 44 for Democrats, with the remaining 11 seats likely to decide control of the Senate.

The three pro ratings we used are those of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report and The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report


Nebraska May Return to Electoral College Winner Take All

April 12, 2016

The Washington Post is reporting that the Nebraska legislature is considering a bill that would revert the state to winner take all for its 5 electoral votes. If it passes, it would be enacted for the 2016 presidential election. 

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states to deviate from winner take all, where the popular vote winner of the state (almost always) receives all the state's electoral votes. In the case of these two states, two electoral votes are awarded to the popular vote winner, with one going to the winner of each individual congressional district. There are three districts in Nebraska and two in Maine.

Nebraska adopted this method in advance of the 1992 presidential election; Maine enacted in time for the 1972 election. Only once has this method made any difference. In the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama won the popular vote in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, winning one of the state's five electoral votes. It was the first Nebraska electoral vote to be awarded to a Democrat since the landslide 1964 presidential election.



Copyright © 2004-2017 270towin.com All Rights Reserved