Election News

Trump, Clinton Dominate New York Primary; Move Closer to a November Face Off

April 20, 2016

Outperforming even the most favorable polls, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton scored huge victories in Tuesday's New York primary, significantly expanding their delegate leads while reestablising themselves as clear frontrunners to meet in the November general election. 

Republican: Earning over 60% of the vote, Trump won at least 89 of the state's 95 delegates. John Kasich finished 2nd, with 3 delegates. As of this morning, 3 delegates remain to be awarded. The win gives Trump an almost 300 delegate lead over Ted Cruz. The Kasich delegates were the first he's earned since winning his home state of Ohio in mid-March. Kasich remains behind Marco Rubio, who has long since departed the race. Trump needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination, while the path for Cruz, outside a contested convention, has become nearly mathematically impossible. 

Looking ahead, the calendar remains quite favorable for Trump. 172 delegates will be up for grabs in 5 Eastern states next Tuesday. Trump leads where polling is available, with averages north of 40%. 

 

Pennsylvania has 54 additional delegates not shown on the above chart. These will be elected directly and are unbound, although they can make their leanings known in advance. 

Democrat: Clinton also outperformed the polls, beating Sanders by 16 points. The win gave her 135 delegates while Sanders picked up 104. Eight delegates remain to be awarded. While proportional allocation gave Clinton only 30 more delegates than Sanders, a large number of delegates are now off the table, which makes the math increasingly difficult for Sanders. Clinton is now within 500 delegates of clinching the nomination; she needs about 29% of the remaining delegates. Next Tuesday offers five contests, with just under 400 pledged delegates, including almost 200 pledged delegates alone in Pennsylvania (210 including superdelegates).  We'd expect Clinton to have over 2,100 delegates by the completion of these contests.  



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Clinton Looks to Regain Momentum in New York; Move Closer to Clinching Nomination

April 19, 2016

The presidential election calendar has shifted east, and picks back up with today's New York primary. This will be followed by primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island next Tuesday. This is friendlier territory for the two frontrunners, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. 

New York: The polls are open 6AM to 9PM Eastern Time in New York City and surrounding counties: Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, and Orange. Those hours are also in effect in Erie County (Buffalo area). For the rest of the state, polls are open noon to 9PM.

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Democratic Primary: Polling has been very consistent in the Empire State, with almost every survey in recent weeks showing Clinton between 51 and 55%, Sanders in the low 40's. On average, it's a 12 point, 54-42 lead for Clinton. Given the number of polls and the lack of variability, it would seem Clinton is likely to win here. That said, Sanders has been on a bit of a roll in recent weeks, winning 7 of the last 8 events. We've also seen his campaign defy expectations, as in Michigan where the Vermont Senator won despite being down by over 20 points in the polls.

 

New York has 291 delegates, more than 10% of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination. 247 of those will be awarded based on Tuesday's primary, with superdelegates making up the remaining 44. Of the 247, 163 will come from the state's 27 congressional districts, with each district having 5-7 delegates. 84 will be awarded based on the statewide vote. As in all Democratic contests, the allocation statewide, and in each district, will be proportional, subject to a 15% minimum vote to receive any delegates.

Clinton enters the day with a 1,776 to 1,125 lead on Sanders, including committed superdelegates. 34 of New York's 44 superdelegates are included in the committed number. If the polls are accurate, and assuming each district votes in the same proportion (that won't happen, but with just two candidates, some of the differences will cancel each other out), Clinton would end up with about 135 of the 247 awarded today, Sanders 112. While that difference isn't huge, it would move Clinton much closer to the nomination. Starting the day needing about 1/3 of the remaining delegates, she would need fewer than 25% if this scenario plays out.

Visit our Democratic Nomination page for more details, including delegate counts and maps, as well as links to detail on each Democratic primary/cacucus.


Trump Poised for Easy New York Win, Most of State's 95 Delegates

April 19, 2016

The presidential election calendar has shifted east, and picks back up with today's New York primary. This will be followed by primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island next Tuesday. This is friendlier territory for the two frontrunners, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. 

New York: The polls are open 6AM to 9PM Eastern Time in New York City and surrounding counties: Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, and Orange. Those hours are also in effect in Erie County (Buffalo area). For the rest of the state, polls are open noon to 9PM.

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Republican Primary: Barring a polling error of historic proportions, Donald Trump will cruise to an easy win here today. In the final 270toWin Republican polling average, Trump has 53%, 30 points ahead of John Kasich and 35 points ahead of Ted Cruz. 

 

New York has 95 delegates, 14 of which are awarded based on the statewide vote, with 81 (3 per) coming from the state's 27 congressional districts. Trump's win will most likely net him between 75 and 85 of these. The exact number will depend on if/where Trump wins the majority of the vote and where the other candidates are held below 20%. We reprint our flowcharts below; click/tap them for a full explanation of the allocation process.

 

After today, Trump will likely need fewer than 50% of the remaining unawarded delegates to secure the nomination, while Cruz will need over 90%. Visit our Republican Nomination page for more details, including delegate counts and maps, as well as links to detail on each Republican primary/cacucus and an interactive delegate calculator.


How Many Delegates Will Trump Win in New York? A Recent Poll May Shed Some Light

April 16, 2016

A large-sample poll out Thursday from Optimus showed Donald Trump winning each of New York's 27 congressional districts in this Tuesday's primary, but falling just short of 50% statewide.  If this poll proves accurate, what does it tell us about how the state's 95 delegates will be allocated?

For a quick recap of how New York allocates delegates, see the bottom of this article. It is an abbreviated version of our earlier discussion on the topic.

Statewide Poll Results: Trump received just under 49% in this poll, Kasich about 24% and Cruz about 14%. Since Trump had less than a majority in this poll, he would split the 14 statewide delegates proportionately with Kasich, the only other candidate at or above 20%. This would yield 9 delegates for Trump, 5 for Kasich.

District Results: Trump leads in all 27 districts, finishing above 50% in 11 of them. He would earn 3 delegates in those 11 districts and 2 in the other 16, for a total of 65 delegates. For those 16 districts where Trump had less than a majority, Kasich finished 2nd in 14 of them, Cruz 2nd in the other two. Those 2nd place candidates earn one delegate each.

 

Summing it all up, if these were the exact outcomes, Trump would receive an estimated 74 of the state's delegates, Kasich 19 and Cruz 2. One big caveat is that this is the only Republican New York poll, aside from another Optimus poll, that holds Trump under 50% statewide since early March. Therefore, barring a late shift, this poll might reflect something closer to a worst-case scenario for the Republican frontrunner. 

If Trump were to exceed 50% statewide, he'd get the other 5 state delegates and, depending on how far above 50% he actually was, he'd likely move over 50% in additional districts. The poll indicates he's within 3 points of 50% in 6 additional districts. If the actual vote breaks that way, Trump would be at roughly 85 delegates. 

New York Allocation Methodology

Statewide Vote: 14 delegates will be allocated based on the primary results across the state. A candidate getting a majority of the vote gets them all. Otherwise, the 14 are allocated proportionately across any candidates reaching 20%.

Congressional District Vote: For each district, a victory with >50% of the vote, or if only one candidate receives 20%, nets 3 delegates. Otherwise, the candidate with the most votes gets two delegates, the candidate in 2nd place receives one. 

  

 


Battle For Senate Control: State Of The Race Mid-April

April 13, 2016

After the presidential election, the battle for control of the Senate will likely be the largest political story of this election season. Republicans are currently in the majority with 54 seats, Democrats control 46. Depending on who wins the White House, Democrats will need to gain either 4 or 5 seats to take the gavel from Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.  

We've summarized the current state of the race in the table below. Use our 2016 interactive Senate map to review the current Senate, make an election forecast, and then see the 2017 Senate based on your prediction.

 

The left part of the table shows the 17 potentially competitive races in 2016; Iowa has been added to the list since our last look in February. these are the seats that will determine control of the Senate. For a race to be in this list, at least one of three professional pundits needed to see the race as at least somewhat competitive. The other 17 seats were seen as safe for the incumbent party by all three; these are listed to the bottom right. The most competitive races are highlighted in green. These are races where at least one pro sees the race as leaning or toss-up.

In the top right, we've summarized what it all means. More than 70% (24 of 34) of the seats to be contested this year are currently held by Republicans, with the composition of safe seats much closer to 50-50. This puts the Democratic floor at 43 seats, Republicans at 40 or, put another way, 3 Democratic seats are at risk, while 14 Republican ones are in play. 

Six of the races are seen as likely (or even safe) by the pros. These are less likely to end up as competitive. If we adjust for that, we end up with a 'Likely' floor of 45 for Republicans, 44 for Democrats, with the remaining 11 seats likely to decide control of the Senate.

The three pro ratings we used are those of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report and The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report


Nebraska May Return to Electoral College Winner Take All

April 12, 2016

The Washington Post is reporting that the Nebraska legislature is considering a bill that would revert the state to winner take all for its 5 electoral votes. If it passes, it would be enacted for the 2016 presidential election. 

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states to deviate from winner take all, where the popular vote winner of the state (almost always) receives all the state's electoral votes. In the case of these two states, two electoral votes are awarded to the popular vote winner, with one going to the winner of each individual congressional district. There are three districts in Nebraska and two in Maine.

Nebraska adopted this method in advance of the 1992 presidential election; Maine enacted in time for the 1972 election. Only once has this method made any difference. In the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama won the popular vote in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, winning one of the state's five electoral votes. It was the first Nebraska electoral vote to be awarded to a Democrat since the landslide 1964 presidential election.


New York Republican Delegate Allocation Flowcharts

April 12, 2016

A week out from the New York Republican primary, Donald Trump has a commanding lead in the statewide polls. The 270toWin New York Average has him a few points above 50%, with John Kasich and Ted Cruz nearly tied at about 20% each. 

As it turns out, those two numbers -- 20% and 50% -- are quite important when looking at how the state allocates its 95 delegates to the Republican Convention. Whether looking at the statewide vote, or any of the states's 27 congressional districts, 20% is the minimum threshold needed to receive any delegates, while exceeding 50% gets a candidate all of them.

Statewide Vote: 14 delegates will be allocated based on the primary results across the state. If a candidate receives greater than 50%, as Trump seems positioned to do, he receives all 14. That is also going to be the case if Trump doesn't reach 50% but is the only candidate to receive 20%. As a practical matter, with only three candidates set to receive almost all the vote, this 2nd set of circumstances is unlikely to occur. If neither Kasich or Cruz reach 20%, Trump should easily meet the 50% threshold. Therefore, if Trump doesn't exceed 50%, the 14 delegates will be proportionately split between any of the candidates that reach the 20% minimum.

Congressional District Vote: Each congressional district will allocate three delegates. As with the statewide vote, a victory with >50% of the vote or where only one candidate reaches 20% makes it winner take all for those three delegates. Otherwise, the candidate with the most votes gets two delegates, the candidate in 2nd place receives one. We've not seen polling that divides up the electorate by region or district, but one would suspect that if Trump ends up in the 55% range statewide, he would exceed 50% in some, but not all of the state's 27 congressional districts. In that scenario, he'd likely end up winning somewhere around 80 of the state's 95 total delegates.

  

Make your own projection for New York and all the remaining Republican primaries using our interactive delegate calculator.


Saturday Recap: Cruz Sweeps Colorado; A Democratic Split in Wyoming

April 10, 2016

Saturday saw delegates allocated at Colorado's Republican Convention and in the Wyoming Democratic Caucus.

Colorado: Senator Ted Cruz completed a sweep of 34 delegates in Colorado by adding the state's 13 at-large delegates at this weekend's party convention. This is in addition to the 21 delegates Cruz won at congressional district events earlier in the week. Three RNC delegates remain unpledged although, given this result, one would have to think Cruz would be favored to eventually pick them up.

Cruz has now closed to within 200 delegates of Donald Trump, and the latter needs about 58% of remaining delegates to secure the nomination before Cleveland. Looking ahead, Trump is likely to do quite well in New York on April 19 and several other Atlantic states on the 26th. Those states will bind about 210 delegates. Ultimately, it may all come down to California on June 7. Try our interactive delegate calculator to see if you can see Trump or Cruz reaching the magic 1,237 number.

Wyoming: Sanders won the state with about 56% of the vote, continuing his impressive streak of wins in recent weeks. However, this result was closer than most of those other Sanders victories and, given proportional allocation rules of the Democratic Party, the day ended in a 7-7 delegate tie. Clinton needs about 32.5% of remaining delegates to secure the nomination. As with Trump, the next couple weeks should be favorable for Clinton as the race moves back to the East Coast. Clinton leads by an average of 13 in the critical New York primary


Sanders Wins Wyoming, Race Closer Than Expected; Delegates Split

April 9, 2016

Bernie Sanders has won the Wyoming Caucuses, media outlets are reporting. With 96% reporting, Sanders has 56% to Clinton's 44%. That translates into 7 delegates for Sanders, 6 for Clinton. One final delegate remains to be allocated.

While the win represents Sander's 7th of the last 8 Democratic contests, the result will likely be a bit disappointing for Sanders, as many of those recent wins, also in Western caucus states, saw votes for him in excess of 70%.

Clinton now leads in event delegates by 218, that lead is over 600 with committed superdelegates. She needs 32.5% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination.

 

 


Cruz Wins 21 Delegates in Colorado

April 9, 2016

Texas Senator Ted Cruz picked up 21 Colorado delegates in recent days, three from each of the state's seven congressional districts. 17 of the 21 are bound to Cruz; the other four are technically unpledged but support his campaign. 

The state will send 37 delegates to the Republican Convention. In addition to the 21 to Cruz, an additional 13 at-large delegates will be selected this weekend at the state GOP convention. Three additional delegates (RNC representatives) will be unbound, although they can pledge support to whomever they want. The Denver Post has a good graphical presentation:

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Updated Delegate Counts: With these 21 Colorado delegates, Cruz now trails Donald Trump by 211 in the race to 1,237. Trump needs about 57% of the delegates yet to be allocated to win the nomination outright. 


For those interested in projecting whether Trump or Cruz can reach 1,237, try our new interactive delegate calculator



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