Election News

Faithless: Texas GOP Elector May Not Cast Vote for Trump

August 26, 2016

Politico reports that Chris Suprun, one of Texas' 38 Republican electors, has indicated that if Donald Trump wins his state, as seems likely, he may cast his electoral college vote elsewhere. Earlier in August, Baoky Vu, then a Georgia elector, indicated the same, while going even further by saying he wouldn't vote for Trump in November. Shortly after those comments, Vu resigned.

About half the states bind electors legally, the remainder do not. Texas and Georgia are two of the states that do not require electors to vote in line with the popular vote results. Electors not voting as pledged are known as 'faithless electors'. These are rare, particularly in modern times, as the electoral slates are usually comprised of those very loyal to the party they represent. Wikipedia has a list of faithless electors

Background

When a voter goes to the polls on November 8th, his or her vote for a presidential candidate is actually a vote cast for a slate of electors selected to represent that candidate/party in the electoral college. There is a separate set of electors for each party on the ballot. Independent and write-in candidates may or may not have a slate, it seems to vary by state. The number of electors in each slate are equal to the state's electoral votes. 

Electors are listed on a on a Certificate of Ascertainment, which each state is required to file after the election. Here's the Texas one from 2012.

The electors associated with the winning candidate in each state will meet to vote on December 19th, where each will individually cast his or her electoral college vote. The votes are recorded on a Certificate of Vote, a copy of which is sent to the President of the Senate (VP Joe Biden) for the official count on January 6, 2017. Here's Texas' Certificate of Vote from 2012.

If Mr. Suprun, or another elector, were to cast their vote differently than as pledged, it would occur at this December 19th meeting. 



Headlines From Political Wire

Who Pays for News?

From a new Reuters Institute study: Political Wire members get exclusive analysis, new features and no advertising. They also help support a site that...

Trump Proposes Law That’s Existed for 20 Years

President Trump “called for a new law barring immigrants from receiving welfare for at least five years at a rally on Wednesday. But neither Trump...

Most Americans Don’t Want to Raise the Debt Limit

A new Morning Consult/Politico survey found that 57% of Americans said Congress should not raise the debt limit – a move the Treasury Department says...

White House Tries to Water Down Russia Sanctions Bill

“The White House is quietly lobbying House Republicans to weaken a bill overwhelmingly passed by the Senate last week that would slap tough new sanctions...

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

“The Senate bill, unveiled today, is not a health care bill. It’s a massive transfer of wealth from middle-class and poor families to the richest...

Third Party Update: Johnson on Ballot in 43 States; Stein 35

August 25, 2016

For third party candidates, ballot access is crucial if polling support is to translate into votes on Election Day. As of now, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is on the ballot in 43 states + DC, with efforts underway to get access in the remaining seven states. Green Party nominee Jill Stein is on the ballot in 35 states + DC. 

Johnson's ballot access represents 487 of 538 electoral votes, while Stein is at 425. Although clearly less desirable, it is worth noting that some states allow limited access via write-in for names not printed on the ballot.

Both Johnson and Stein are repeat nominees for their parties. In 2012, Johnson was on the ballot in all but Michigan and Oklahoma. Stein was on the ballot in 36 states + DC. 


Clinton To Open Field Office in Utah; Trails by 20 in New Poll

August 23, 2016

The Clinton campaign is opening a field office in Salt Lake City, the USA Today reports. Although no Democrat has won the state since 1964 and Mitt Romney won by almost 50 points in 2012, the campaign sees an opportunity in the high unfavorable ratings for Donald Trump.

A new poll out today, however, shows it will be a steep climb. Public Policy finds Trump ahead by 20 points in a head-head match-up vs. Clinton. When third parties are included, Trump's lead drops to 15 points, with Gary Johnson receiving 12%. Independent Evan McMullin, who entered the race on August 10th, is at 9%. (McMullin, a member of the Mormon church, would be expected to see his best numbers in the state, where he is already on the ballot.)


Clinton Leads by 19 in Virginia Poll; State Moves to 'Safe' in Polling Map

August 23, 2016

Hillary Clinton has opened up a 19 point lead over Donald Trump in Virginia, a new poll from Roanoke College finds. This is the fourth August poll finding the Democratic nominee with a double digit lead. When 3rd party nominees are included, the lead is 16 points. The last time Roanoke surveyed the Commonwealth, back in May, the race was tied.

 

Clinton's average lead over Trump is now well over 10%, placing the state into the 'Safe Clinton' category in the Electoral Map Based on Polls. It is worth noting that Virginia was one of only four states decided by 5 points or less in 2012. The last time Virginia was decided by 10 points or more was when George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis by about 20% in 1988. The last time a Democrat won by 10 points here was in 1944, when FDR won by 25% over Thomas E. Dewey.


Associated Press Analyzes the Electoral Map

August 21, 2016

The Associated Press is out with an analysis of the electoral map this weekend, reporting that "Hillary Clinton heads into the fall out front in enough states to give her at least a tie in the Electoral College, meaning a victory in any of the several states now a toss-up would be enough to push her over the top and into the White House.

Here's a look at the AP ratings on our electoral map. Click or tap the map to view an interactive version.

 

Latest Consensus Pundit Map Puts Clinton Over 270 Electoral Votes

August 15, 2016

The August 15 update* to the Consensus Pundit Electoral Map gives Hillary Clinton 279 electoral votes to 191 for Donald Trump; 68 electoral votes in four states are seen as true toss-ups. 

The main changes from the prior map were to move Virginia and New Hampshire from toss-up to leaning Clinton. This was enough to push Clinton across the 270 electoral vote threshold for the first time. Several red states also became more competitive, with Kansas and South Carolina moving from safe to likely Trump, Missouri from likely to leaning Trump.

Click the map above to use it as a starting point for your own 2016 forecast. You can also review the individual forecasts (links above the map) that make up the Consensus Map.  

* This article was first published based on updates as of early Monday, August 15. Subsequent updates that morning led to additional modifications of the map. The article and image were updated to take these changes into account.


Clinton Opens Up Double Digit Leads in Colorado, Virginia; Nine Points in North Carolina

August 12, 2016

Hillary Clinton leads by 14 in Colorado, 13 in Virginia, 9 in North Carolina and 5 in Florida, according to a new series of battleground polls from NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist.

With today's result, Virginia moves to Lean Clinton in the electoral map based on polls, putting the Democratic nominee across 270 electoral votes for the first time. 

Click/tap the map to use it as a starting point for your 2016 election forecast.

While the poll numbers have been very good for Clinton the past couple weeks, keep in mind that polling is only a snapshot in time. The election is still more than 12 weeks away and this map will likely change considerably as the election nears and more polling is available. Whether future polls reverse course and show a closer race, or move in a direction where we're left with little suspense as to who will win on Election Day remains to be seen.


Trump Leads by 11 in Texas

August 12, 2016

While other traditionally red states have shown signs of being competitive this November, the Lone Star State still looks safe for Donald Trump. The Republican nominee leads Hillary Clinton by 11 points in Texas, a new poll from Dixie Strategies finds. 

This is the first Texas poll since the conventions, with the 11 point lead slightly wider than the 7-8 point lead found in a couple of late June Texas polls.

 

Texas has voted Republican since 1980. Its 38 electoral votes (up from 26 in that 1980 election) are the 2nd most in the country, only trailing California.

Bookmark our presidential election polls page to track the polls and their impact on the electoral map. On that page, you can see the 270toWin Polling Average for each state. You can sort those state averages various ways, including by level of competitiveness. The page also includes a link to the electoral map based on polls and a running list of the most recent presidential and Senate polls.


Trump Leads by 2 in South Carolina

August 11, 2016

The first 2016 survey of South Carolina shows a tight race in a state not won by a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Public Policy finds Donald Trump leading by 2 points 41%-39%, with 5% supporting Gary Johnson.

The surprisingly narrow margin seems to be office-specific, as the same poll found incumbent Republican Senator Tim Scott with a 17 point lead over his Democratic challenger.

South Carolina moves to toss-up in the electoral map based on polls.


Clinton Leads by 15 in Wisconsin; Marquette Poll Finds

August 10, 2016

Hillary Clinton continues to get good news in the polls. Today it is from Wisconsin. The mid-August release of the well-respected Marquette Law poll gives her a 15 point lead over Donald Trump, a gain of 11 points from mid-July. Including 3rd parties, the lead remains well into double digits.

Wisconsin last voted Republican in the Reagan landslide of 1984. Barack Obama won by 7 points in 2012.



Copyright © 2004-2017 270towin.com All Rights Reserved