Consensus Electoral Map Little Changed in Recent Weeks

The latest consensus electoral map, now aggregating the electoral ratings of seven forecasters, shows little change since the last map in late May. Hillary Clinton still leads Donald Trump by 253-191, with seven states, representing 94 electoral votes, seen as toss-ups.

Only Utah has shifted since late May, moving from safe to likely for Trump. Forecasters are likely responding to a couple polls showing the state could be competitive, reflecting less than enthusiastic support for the presumptive Republican nominee from the Mormon community. 

To arrive at the consensus map, we assign a point value to each rating category. From there we calculate the average rating. Those average ratings determine the consensus rating, which may or may not be the most frequent one. For example, only states rated safe by all seven pundits are shown in the darkest shade of blue or red.