Probability of 270 Electoral Votes

We've relaunched  "The Probability of 270" to the interactive electoral college map page. This feature works in tandem with your maps, as you create them, to tell you the probability that either candidate will reach 270 electoral votes based on the remaining states undecided on your map. The calculated probabilities for each state are derived primarily from current state by state polls, basically using the same methodology that underlies the 2012 election simulator  (which is also live for 2012). Therefore, it is subject to many of the same limitations as that tool, which you can read about on the simulator page.

You'll find The Probability of 270 underneath The Road to 270, both of which are below the interactive map. As a reminder, The Road to 270 calculates every critical path to 270 electoral votes remaining for each of the candidates. Both of these features will appear with 12 or fewer states remaining undecided on your map, where neither candidate has 270 and will dynamically update every time you change the status of one of the states in the map.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Live Results: Alabama State House Special Election

Democrats will try and flip one of the few competitive legislative districts in the state

Joe Biden Wins Missouri Democratic Primary

The party-run primary this past Saturday adds over 60 delegates to the president's total

Live Results: Louisiana Presidential Primary

Presumptive nominees Trump and Biden expected to pad their insurmountable delegate leads

Overview and Live Results: Illinois and Ohio Primaries

The marquee race is the Republican primary for Senate in Ohio. The winner will face Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is seeking his 4th term.

Northern Mariana Islands Republican Caucus

The territory holds the first GOP contest since Donald Trump clinched the nomination