FiveThirtyEight Now-Cast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the now-cast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "who would win the election if it were held today."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Map :
RFK Jr. Makes Michigan Ballot
GOP Candidate Drops Out After Forgery Allegations
Trump’s Donor Base Is Shrinking
The Biden Campaign Is Non-Stop Offense
Larry Hogan Says He Won’t Leave the GOP
Headlines
Kansas Republican Rep. Jake LaTurner Not Seeking Reelection
His retirement announcement cites a desire to spend more time with his family
Live Results: Alabama Congressional Primary Runoff, Michigan State House Special Elections
The 2nd Congressional District, open due to redistricting, represents a Democratic pick-up opportunity in the fall
Live Results: Alaska and Wyoming Democratic Presidential Contests
Party run events in these two states will add to President Biden's Delegate Advantage
Uncontested: 2024 U.S. House Races with Single Major Party Participation
These are elections where only one of the two major parties is on the general election ballot
Live Results: Georgia State House Special Election
Three Republicans are looking to replace long-time State Rep. Richard Smith, who died in January
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