2016 Election with Projected 2024 Electoral Votes

The upcoming Census will calculate the population of the United States as of April 1, 2020. This, in turn, will lead to a reapportionment of congressional districts. Since each state receives electoral votes equal to its total congressional delegation (House + 2 Senators), the electoral map will be changing for the 2024 presidential election. The new map should be known in late December, 2020.

A projection from Election Data Services indicates TX and FL will be the big winners, gaining 3 and 2 electoral votes, respectively. AZ, CO, MT, NC and OR will gain one each. As the number of electoral votes is fixed, these 10 increased votes must come from somewhere else. The current projection is that ten states AL, CA, IL, MI, MN, OH, NY, PA, RI, WV) are on track to lose one each.

The only change from last year's estimate is that California is now projected to lose an electoral vote, with New York losing one instead of two. As these are both deep blue states, there is no bottom line change: The interactive map below shows that if the projected 2024 map had been in place in 2016, Trump would have won 309 electoral votes, 3 more than the 306 he actually won (excluding faithless electors). However, if this projection does prove accurate, it will be the first time California has lost an electoral vote (and thus a congressional seat) since it gained statehood in 1850.