8 responses so far ↓

• 1 Vicente Duque // Oct 29, 2008 at 3:35 pm

  Reality Ensues for Bettors ( before November 4 ) :

  I make this observation about INTRADE :

  As November 4 approaches, INTRADE converges to reality. The wrong fantasies, delusions and mistaken perceptions of traders are corrected by the hard and painful reality of losing money.

  So the Obama Victory Tossups start to increase value for Obama in the final days before November 4. And the McCain Final Victory Tossups do the same for McCain.

  I update my published tables of Prices for INTRADE State Bets, everyday. And I have observed this phenomenon :

  CO, NV, NM, OH, FL,
  IA, NH, PA, VA

  steadily increase or keep constant at high values for Obama.

  NC, MO, IN are very Random and extremely dangerous and volatile. Nonpredictable.

  MT, ND, GA, AZ,
  WV, AR, LA, TN, SD
  have decreased in value for Obama and increased for McCain. Some investors were bullish on them, but enthusiasm has decreased for Obama.

  This theory predicts the Final Veredict before November 5.

  But it is only a theory and may have many leaks, or it may be utter stupidity.

  More Info on :

  http://tossupstates.blogspot.com/

  http://milenials.blogspot.com/

  Vicente Duque

• 2 Brandon // Oct 29, 2008 at 3:38 pm

  Hey, what would be the next red/blue state (besides ND and MO) would you guys consider changing to tossup? And vise versa?

  270toWin: This is a bit hypothetical, but Virginia and Colorado could work their way back to toss-up. On the ‘red’ side, Georgia is probably closest to being a toss-up at this point. In terms of tossups going to one candidate or the other, Montana and North Dakota are closest to going back to red, while Nevada is probably closest to going blue.

• 3 D // Oct 29, 2008 at 6:02 pm

  Montana has an identical voting record to Colorado. They have been voting the same since 1948. In that time, three Democrats won both states: Harry Truman (1948), Lyndon Johnson (1964), and Bill Clinton (1992). All three won their elections.

  North Dakota has an identical voting record to South Dakota and Indiana. They have been voting the same since 1920. (Ind. and S.D. go back one election further?to 1916.) In that time, the three states have voted Democratic on only three occasions: Franklin Roosevelt (1932, 1936) and Johnson (1964). Roosevelt and Johnson won their elections.

  What these states have in common is this: Normally Republican?and in some election years, Strongly Republican?for the likes of Mont. and N.D. (and Colo. and Ind. and S.D.) to vote Democratic means that they are really rejecting Republican leadership.

• 4 Armando // Oct 30, 2008 at 2:30 pm

  I would first like to commend 270towin.com for a fantastic website. I have been closely examining all the polls, and seem to find, this website as the most accurate. Although you have moved Montana and North Dakota to the “Toss Up” list, do you really believe Obama can win these states? Finally, if Obama is projected the winner of these states and the other likely Obama supporting toss ups, would it be considered a landslide? What must the result be in the Electoral College, to be considered a Landslide? Thank you.
  -Armando

  270toWin: There probably isn’t any official cut-off for what a landslide is. Given the closeness of the last two elections, however, I suspect that the media will start talking landslide if the winner gets to 350 or so, even though that kind of electoral college spread is hardly uncommon. As for accuracy and what we believe, all we’re trying to do is aggregate what the pollsters are saying. We take no position on whether either candidate can win a given state.

• 5 Stephen // Oct 30, 2008 at 2:51 pm

  270 moved Colorado into Obama’s column today.

• 6 Mike // Oct 30, 2008 at 3:14 pm

  So my ‘new’ election game is predicting which state will, according to CNN, push either candidate over 269 EV’s on election night. I am guessing it could be Washington or Colorado. Any other guesses?

• 7 Arise&Renew // Oct 31, 2008 at 1:43 pm

  As it looks now, none of them will reach the 270 before 9:00pm when another 156 electoral votes becomes available with the closing of polls in 14 states, including New York, Michigan and Minnesota. If I were to take a guess Mike, I would say that Colorado would put Obama over the top.

• 8 Alex // Nov 1, 2008 at 2:52 am

  I think Barack has got the election locked up. But what I have been anticipating is how Missouri and Indiana will vote. The polls are very tight in both states and I have found myself looking more into those states rather than the national election.

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