On the same day we moved Colorado to leaning Obama, a couple polls caught our eye.  In Pennsylvania, Mason-Dixon shows an Obama lead of just 4 points.  Likewise, Obama has a 4 point lead in Virginia according to Marist.  These polls are significantly different than other recent polls in those states (especially the PA poll), so hard to say if they are outliers or the start of a trend toward a tighter race in some states.

Today, we moved Virginia into the Obama category.     We’ve been dragging our feet a little on this move, but with yet another poll (Rasmussen) out today showing a 10 point Obama lead, we really can’t hold back any longer.

Why have we waited?  A combination of reasons.  This move puts Obama above 270 on the map.  While we have nothing against doing this, our preference is that if we crossed that threshold for either candidate, we wanted to be reasonably confident that, absent a game changing event, we wouldn’t be crossing back.    Also, since Virginia hasn’t voted Democratic since 1964, it made us even more cautious.

Based on recent polls, and the increased likelihood of an Obama vs. McCain race, we’ve moved North Carolina from Republican to Swing and Arkansas from Swing to Republican.   The latter decision was fairly easy — the only way Arkansas is really in play is if Sen. Clinton is the nominee.  

North Carolina, Virginia and even South Carolina have been fairly competitive in most polls between Obama and McCain.  Since 1968, those states have voted exclusively Republican (except for 1976 when both Carolinas went for Carter).  It will add an interesting dynamic to the 2008 race if those states are once again competitive as the election draws near.