270toWin » North Carolina

Obama Wins North Carolina

admin — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 19:25:18 +0000

The Associated Press has called North Carolina for Obama. We’ve updated the home page map to reflect this. The last time it voted for a Democrat was Carter in 1976. Missouri remains too close to call, awaiting the count of 7,100 provisional ballots. It is believed McCain has a slight edge there. If he wins, Missouri will no longer be the answer to our Electoral College Quiz question #2. (The new answer, based on a cursory look, will be Ohio…but we need to review the data some more).

One electoral vote (the 2nd Congressional District) remains up for grabs in Nebraska. McCain has an ever-so-slight lead here. Nebraskans have never split their electoral votes since the somewhat proportional system was put into place.

If these leanings hold, the final unofficial electoral count will be 364-174. Our prediction was 393-145. We will have missed Georgia, Montana and Missouri.

Election Day Scenarios: The six closest states this year?

admin — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 20:49:24 +0000

Just playing around with the map today and speculating how it could turn out if the voters ultimately decide to go in a different direction this year. These six ‘red’ states, while obviously not decisive to the race if it were to play out this way, could end up being the closest in popular vote totals. Thoughts?

Swing States Update

admin — Wed, 14 May 2008 17:07:31 +0000

Based on recent polls, and the increased likelihood of an Obama vs. McCain race, we’ve moved North Carolina from Republican to Swing and Arkansas from Swing to Republican. The latter decision was fairly easy — the only way Arkansas is really in play is if Sen. Clinton is the nominee.

North Carolina, Virginia and even South Carolina have been fairly competitive in most polls between Obama and McCain. Since 1968, those states have voted exclusively Republican (except for 1976 when both Carolinas went for Carter). It will add an interesting dynamic to the 2008 race if those states are once again competitive as the election draws near.