A good number of new polls have been released this week by SurveyUSA and Rasmussen; visit the McCain vs. Obama and McCain vs. Clinton maps to review.   The overall trend has been toward McCain, with both potential match-ups very close.   With the prospective Democratic nominees out there skewering each other on a daily basis to gain an edge, it makes sense that this would translate into better polling for McCain in the short run.

The number of swing states remains quite large.  We define these as states where the poll margin is +/- 5 points, which is a bit larger than the margin of error on most polls.  At this early stage, the swing states for McCain vs. Clinton seem to be largely in the upper midwest, roughly the same as we’ve seen in the last couple elections.   The swing states are much more dispersed in the McCain vs. Obama match-up, and include usually safe ‘red’ states like both Carolinas, North Dakota, Nebraska and even Alaska.

Virginia is essentially tied in both races and might be an important one to watch as we head through the summer and fall.  The last time Virginia went to the Democrats was in 1964.