270toWin » 2008 Polls

Virginia Moved to Obama

admin — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 17:39:08 +0000

Today, we moved Virginia into the Obama category. We’ve been dragging our feet a little on this move, but with yet another poll (Rasmussen) out today showing a 10 point Obama lead, we really can’t hold back any longer.

Why have we waited? A combination of reasons. This move puts Obama above 270 on the map. While we have nothing against doing this, our preference is that if we crossed that threshold for either candidate, we wanted to be reasonably confident that, absent a game changing event, we wouldn’t be crossing back. Also, since Virginia hasn’t voted Democratic since 1964, it made us even more cautious.

Obama Gets Large Bump in Latest Polls

admin — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 17:32:14 +0000

Polls that have been conducted since Obama became the presumptive nominee show a good-sized bump for the candidate. This has occurred across-the-board — red states have become a bit less red and some important swing states have gone blue. As a result of 3 new Quinnipiac polls today, Obama has a lead outside the margin of error in states representing 269 electoral votes, his highest total to date.

We don’t know if Obama will end up with far more or far fewer electoral votes, but it is likely that the road between now and November will show lots of peaks and valleys for both candidates. Obama’s number will likely grow some more as more in the next week to ten days as post-nomination polls are taken in other states. After that, polling may begin to show some reversion as the bump wears off.

Hillary vs. Rudy Head-to-Head Update

admin — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 17:56:44 +0000

Please read this post before using the information that follows.

For those who missed our 11/26 post…. Our “Probability of 270″ beta feature (below the interactive map) contains some early general election polls of Giuliani vs. Clinton, along with 2004 actual results where polling wasn’t available. Usually, these were states with wide margins in 2004, which likely will still be one-sided in 2008. We’re not predicting Hillary and Rudy will be the candidates, but this combination seems at least as likely as any other, and it is one with the most polling available.

The polls that have come out in December have generally moved in the direction of Clinton. This is consistent with the difficulties Giuliani has had maintaining his numbers on the Republican side. These numbers will likely go back and forth, only gaining some consistency when the actual candidates come into view. So, just be aware that “The Probability of 270″ is favoring the Democratic side as of now, based on current polling.

Current Poll Sources:

Polling sources for 11/26/07 update:

SurveyUSA: AL, CA, IA, KS, KY, MA, MN, NH, NM, OK, OR, VA, WA, WI
Brown Univ: RI
Critical Insights: ME
Quinnipiac: CT, FL, NJ, NY, OH, PA
Rasmussen: AR, AZ, CO, GA, IL, MD, MI, MO, NC, TN, TX, UT

The following states are still using 2004 results: AK, DC, DE, HI, ID, IN, LA, MS, MT, NE, ND, NV, SC, SD, VT, WV, WY