We’ve tweaked our methodology for the simulator a bit, using an average in some states. Previously, we were basically picking one recent poll for a state and using that. However, in many states we’re seeing wildly different results over a short period of time. Since even a slight difference in percentages makes a huge difference in the probability of winning a state, using one poll (where others differ significantly in a short calendar period) was implying a level of precision that doesn’t really exist.
Given the current polls, we don’t think it will change the current bottom line results (Obama wins most of the simulations), but it should introduce a wider spread in outcomes.
And, as a reminder, the simulator isn’t predicting the future (i.e., the election). It merely says: If the election were today, given the current polls (and assuming they are accurate), what would the outcome likely be. However, the election isn’t today, and the general campaign has only just started.
2 responses so far ↓
1 AAR // Jul 1, 2008 at 1:18 pm
i see you added the “polls updated on ___ date” below the map, which is great. Still, i think the next step, esp given your tweak to the algorythm, is to show a separate page that lists all the polls you are relying on for each state. You must have the data to use it so just a list by state, ordered by date inside, would be great. cheers and nice work! Adam
2 fourth // Jul 12, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Hey I was just wondering about the front page “2008 swing state map.” When is it going to be updated? Obama has polled ahead or tied in MT, ND, and IN recently, but they start red on the front page.
270TOWIN: The interactive map is based on a combination of polls and historical trends, while the polling map more closely reflects current polls. As the election nears, more emphasis will be placed on the polls and the two will converge, but this far out we’re not inclined to overlook history — either in the states you mention or in a state like Florida that seems to be trending the other way, but which we still consider to be a swing state.
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