The polls are definitely closing in Pennsylvania, with the last four polls coming in at a 4 to 6% lead for Obama. Not really seeing this narrowing trend in many other states. Sen. McCain has pushed hard in PA, and this may be making a difference.
Just for the sake of argument, let’s say McCain pulls out PA (although we’d still say the odds are against this), with all the other ‘decided’ states playing out as currently polling. This would leave Obama with 265 and McCain with 178. There are two combinations that would get McCain over the top — he would have to win 7 of the 8 swing states.
By the way, for those that haven’t seen it, anytime your interactive map has 12 or fewer states undecided with neither candidate at 270, you will see a feature called “The Road to 270″ below the map. This will summarize what each candidate needs to win and it will provide a link to a page (like the ‘two combinations’ link earlier in this post) where you can see every critical path to 270 electoral votes.
{ 20 comments… read them below or add one }
Y’all are reading different polls from the ones I’m reading. Public Opinion popped up today with Obama +12.
http://www.topnews.in/obama-leads-mccain-recent-pennsylvania-polls-282482
While McCain has likely closed the gap a bit in PA, Obama still shows numbers over 50% in most PA polls, at this late in the game I would hesitate to say McCain can pull it out, most voters aren’t likely to switch their choice at this point, its possible but very unlikely
Well we are seeing high voter turn-out. There is no way of telling how this will play out but some 40-50% of the electorate have already voted.
PA is absolutely crucial to McCain, unless he wins there it is over (IA, NV, CO, NH look like they have gone blue). Obama is now in the position of having the ability to lose PA, FL and OH and still take over 270 EV’s. Of course we have not counted a single vote, but the polls and exit data I have seen from the Republican Party are not promising.
It’s too late for McCain in PA.
I’ve noticed a tightening in some of the southern states as well. With some margins in the single digits, those races may very well be determined by which party has the most enthusiasm on election day. One would expect the Democrats to turnout simply for an opportunity to vote for Obama, even though they expect him to lose that particular state. What about McCain, will Republicans look at this and say “We’re gonna lose nationally anyway why bother?”
Dream headlines after the polls close on November 4th stating the electoral vote count
Obama – 535
McCain – 3 (Alaska)
Go oboma! You rock freaky bro!!
Well, if theres one thing Ive learned….Its that none of us can take any election for granted.
It aint over untill its well and truly over.
Not even that. I ran a simulation yesterday and… Obama got Alaska !
Don’t pray for Pennsylvania or Virginia.
Prices on Monday, November 3, 7 AM EST, to buy Betting Options ( shares ) for the Candidates. You win $100 at INTRADE if your candidate wins :
The Entire USA : Obama 89.8, McCain 11.3
Toss Up States for Obama with Last Prices :
NewMexico (5EVs) …Obama 89.0, McCain 11.0
Colorado (9EVs) ….. Obama 89.0, McCain 14.0
Nevada (5EVs) ……. Obama 82.0, McCain 14.0
Florida (27EVs) …… Obama 73.8 McCain 30.1
Ohio (20EVs) ……… Obama 80.9, McCain 21.4
Iowa (7EVs) ………….. Obama 93.5, McCain 6.5
New Hampshire (4EVs) . Obama 86.0, McCain 14.0
Pennsylvania (21EVs) … Obama 88.6, McCain 12.0
Virginia (13EVs) ……… Obama 87.1, McCain 18.9
North Carolina (15EVs) .. Obama 63.5 McCain 37.0
Toss Up States for McCain :
Missouri (11EVs) ……… Obama 45.1, McCain 52.5
Indiana (11EVs) ……….. Obama 39.0, McCain 59.0
Georgia (15EVs) ………. Obama 30.0, McCain 75.0
Montana (3EVs) ……….. Obama 30.0, McCain 70.0
Don’t pray for Pennsylvania or Virginia, they are secure. Pray for North Carolina and Missouri.
All others are pretty secure.
http://tossUpStates.blogspot.com/
http://milenials.blogspot.com/
Vicente Duque
I wonder if the numbers will change with the news of Obama’s latest interview release by the SF Times? Where he’s on tape saying he’s going to cap certain Coal industry and cause them to go bankrupt? It’s been breaking news on FoxNews.
Terry, Obama would be more likely to win in Alaska than in several other states. O is actually polling better there than he is in Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. Even in the biggest of landslides, those 5 states would hold out to the bitter end for McCain.
As for Pennsylvania, Obama’s going to win there by at least 5%. Pennsylvania has been bluer than the rest of the country for the last 4 election cycles, and I don’t see that changing.
I’ve found that people believe what they want to–it should be interesting to see if conservative voter turnout is depressed by constant media barrages alleging Obama’s victory. While I am certainly not suggesting that this alone would be the difference, I do hope that everyone exercises their opportunity to vote–no matter who it is for. Vote America and vote McCain!
Just out of curiosity, will 270towin.com make a final prediction?
NewsWatcher // Nov 3, 2008 at 9:12 am
I wonder if the numbers will change with the news of Obama’s latest interview release by the SF Times? Where he’s on tape saying he’s going to cap certain Coal industry and cause them to go bankrupt? It’s been breaking news on FoxNews.
Newswatcher, please research and source and post links for such a story. Why? Because I can find no such statement, no politician would say they are going to bankrupt an industry. Besides there is no such publication as the SF Times-a basic web search reveals it is a collection of links to news and events, not an actual printed media. Fox has no mention of said story!
If Nebraska is a bitter end state then that is only as a whole. If it was that much of a landslide then since Nebraska splits its EVs then Obama could take up to two of them.
Karl Rove has called the 2008 Presidential Vote.
http://www.rove.com/uploads/0000/0051/McCain-Obama_11_3_08_FINAL.pdf
On November 3, Gamblers and Bettors have suddenly changed their estimation of Missouri, Now it may be inside Obama’s bag.
The most difficult to predict, because of being very tight :
Bets at Intrade to win $100 ( taken 1 hour ago ):
North Carolina (15EVs) .. Obama 61.0 McCain 40.5
Missouri (11EVs) ……… Obama 58.0, McCain 50.0
Toss Up States for McCain :
Indiana (11EVs) ……….. Obama 40.0, McCain 62.2
Georgia (15EVs) ………. Obama 27.5, McCain 77.0
Obama will lose Georgia, no doubt. Most Probably he loses Indiana.
I just found the papers of the Brookings Institution that explain why the Southwest is becoming Democrat and Obama Friendly. Those documents are wonderful, deep, profound. The best I have read. But it is a mountain of documents and graphs.
I am very angry with myself for not having found them before.
I am trying to make synopsis of the knowledge of the Brookings Institution in my sites :
http://milenials.blogspot.com/
bets here ( updated everyday ) :
http://tossUpStates.blogspot.com/
Vicente Duque
I thought this site was going to make all the states neutral and start from scratch based on exit polls. When will this map reset to show true election results?
270toWin: We have not done that in the past, as the site is more about letting people make their own maps — but we are trying to pull together a map to use tonight (nothing like waiting until the last minute!). If we can’t do that, we will probably work it off the polling map.
That would be great if you can get it done by then, I know many people are watching your map vs. relying on the Mainstream Media Maps. Thank you for your fair and unbalanced map~!!