63 responses so far ↓

• 1 Hugh // Aug 25, 2008 at 4:16 pm

  Re #2: No Republican has ever won while losing Ohio… period.

• 2 mark // Aug 25, 2008 at 7:19 pm

  hugh.thats why they said.”combination”…..ok?

• 3 axt113 // Aug 26, 2008 at 7:17 pm

  Well its good then that Obama is leading in Michigan, PA and neck and Neck in Ohio and Virginia

• 4 Jeff // Aug 26, 2008 at 11:18 pm

  Interesting how no Democrat has won the White house since 1916 without winning West Virginia. That could be bad news for Obama.

• 5 mark // Aug 27, 2008 at 10:01 am

  interesting fact: obama has spent 7 million in ads in florida…………mccain hasnt spent a dime……..and mccain still leads by 6%……..thats gotta hurt.same in north carolina……..obama has spent 5.5 million…mccain.not a dime……….and mccain leads by 5%.thats gotta hurt………mccain only has to spend 84 million in 4 states…….ohio….colorado…….virginia…and michigan………michigan is really a head fake.forces obama to spend time and money there………so much for obama’s 50 state strategy.ouch.thats gotta hurt

• 6 Jake // Aug 27, 2008 at 10:23 pm

  well sorry to burst your bubble, but McCain has started dropping some serious dough here in NC, and has actually set up offices here recently instead of basing his NC operations in Tallahassee FL. Yes Obama spends tons in virginia and NC, but in doing so he has tightened it some, and virginia is looking like it could go blue and with some extreme luck so could NC. McCain is spending money here, he has been running ads suporting himself here. Sorry Mark

• 7 mark // Aug 28, 2008 at 7:15 am

  first….my “bubble” wont be burst at all if mccain spends some cash in north carolina………….second…….I live in North Carolina…..and the facts are clear.mccain is running national ads.not n.c. based……and the current trend in florida isd clear…..the more obama spends the more mccain pulls ahead in florida………not a single poll has obama closer than 3% in nc polls…..and the majority of polls have it closer to a 6-8 % lead for mccain………sorry jake

• 8 William // Aug 28, 2008 at 12:52 pm

  mark, scroll over States, click Voting History & Trends by State, and click North Carolina. There’s a poll there that you might find interesting.

  I also disagree that McCain has to spend money in only 4 states. Obama has been aggressive and is threatening to take several swing states as well as traditionally red states. This fact means that McCain must spend more money on targeted ads in order to win.

• 9 Drew // Aug 28, 2008 at 1:30 pm

  McCain’s spent millions in NC and VA. You can’t go 15 minutes without seeing an ad.
  And, I don’t get it. When Obama wins a simulation, McCain’s # goes up,

• 10 mark // Aug 28, 2008 at 2:06 pm

  ok……..Ill say it again.those are national ads.not local…..william, Im not interested in any single poll….Ive clicked on the history and trends………as far as obama flipping some states…….he might get iowa.and nevada………Its kinda funny……..obama is outraged about being compared too britney spears.but guess who designed his stage at the convention with the greek columns…britney spears stage designer.ouch.thats at least 2 more mccain ads……..I do hope too see some north carolina ads.the ones pointing out the long standing relationship with the terrorist bill ayres.and his terrorist wife.bernadine dorn…….north carolina voters will love that…….

• 11 mark // Aug 28, 2008 at 2:10 pm

  william……If youre talking about the zogby poll.it doesnt surprise me…….they arent the best poll.If you look a little more closely at realclearpolitics.com..you will see every poll done in north carolina is overwhelmingly in mccain’s column…

  270toWin: That one recent Zogby poll was a little odd. Even if you call NC statistically tied (for argument’s sake), a poll that shows Obama ahead by 8 just seemed a bit out of place. Of course, if all the polls were the same, we’d have nothing fun to argue about.

• 12 quincyconscience // Aug 28, 2008 at 3:22 pm

  McCain has more field offices in FLA than in any other state, in fact it is the only state that has more McCain field offices than Obama offices. so to say he has not spent a dime is only considering ads not the millions the RNC and McCain have actually spent in FLA. McCain had the primaries to spend money their so it is unfair to assume that they started on equal ground in the advertising game. Also McCain has way more than 84 million dollars because of the RNC. The media definitely overstates the cash difference between the two candidates.

• 13 mark connete // Aug 28, 2008 at 7:00 pm

  quincy………..the reason mccain had a head start………the dems didnt campaign in florida…..they stripped them of their votes at the convention..I didnt say they started on even ground….Obama chose not to be there…we were talking about the ads…….obama has spent 7 million in ADS…..and yet mccain 0 on.ADS……yet despite that..florida is getting out of reach……..not a good sign……..not rocket science..just common sense…….side note: floridas delegates were restored by the messiah…….funny huh?

• 14 mark connete // Aug 28, 2008 at 7:04 pm

  I need to make a correction.mccain has spent 700,ooo in north carolina on ads……….my bad….

• 15 Aaron // Aug 28, 2008 at 7:21 pm

  “North Carolina ranked in the middle of the pack in Obama TV spending during June and July, led by Florida with $5 million, according to an analysis by the University of Wisconsin’s Advertising Project.”

  “The 164,509 new Democratic registrants so far this year [in NC] amount to more than eight times the number of new voters who have registered Republican, according to the Obama campaign, quoting State Board of Elections figures.
  http://www2.journalnow.com/content/2008/aug/14/obama-spending-more-in-north-carolina-to-try-to-br/

• 16 mark connete // Aug 28, 2008 at 10:45 pm

  aaron…….thats a lame argument.if your football team is down 80-0 and you might score 30 unanswered….you still lose by 50…..next?

• 17 mark connete // Aug 28, 2008 at 10:45 pm

  aaron.of course ….that info is from the obama campaign.lol……

• 18 William // Aug 29, 2008 at 9:53 am

  mark, your own realclearpolitics averages McCain by 4.2% in NC. In 1996, Bob Dole won NC by 4.69%, or approximately 107,000 votes. I doubt all 164,000 of those new voters will show up to the polls on Nov. 4, but these newly registered Democrats should still cause you great concern because unlike baseball, a tie doesn’t go to the runner.

  McCain will likely hold on to NC, but he’ll have to fight for it. Nevertheless, he’s going to lose the election, in part because he can’t count on several states that lil bush took for granted.

• 19 mark connete // Aug 29, 2008 at 1:06 pm

  william………all the new voters arent democrats………….80,000 new republicans this year in n.c. that kinda throws your math off…as far as the “several” states…you claim mccain is in trouble in.hogwash………….barack the messiah might very well flip a couple states………….and barry might want to keep an eye on michigan………..just a heads up for ya……….p.s. why dont you name these states you think obama is gonna flip.

• 20 William // Aug 29, 2008 at 3:27 pm

  Don’t see a citation for the stat on 80,000 new republicans. What I do know from the article is that there are 8 times as many newly registered democrats than republicans in North Carolina. That’s quoting State Board of Elections figures. If 8 times X = 164,000, then X= 20,500 (the number of newly registered republicans).

  Still won’t go as far as to say Obama will win NC, but it is in striking distance. I could easily see NC going McCain 51-49.

  Here are my predictions:
  McCain holds FL, MO, NC & IN (barely)
  Obama holds PA, MI.
  Obama flips IA, NM, OH, NV.
  Too close to call – VA

  I don’t know what you mean about MI being competitive for McCain. That slight chance waived bye bye this morning when he snubbed Romney. Call me crazy, but I don’t think telling auto workers to get their own health insurance in a bad economy will earn their votes.

• 21 mark connete // Aug 29, 2008 at 8:20 pm

  wow…….In your grand fantasy, you have magically given john mccain the power to take health care away from auto workers?…thats amazing.and your analysis of michigan is a little off.heres why: The economy is wrecked in michigan. The democrats have been in charge of the state economy not john mccain…..the gov. of mich. just raised taxes.the mayor of the biggest city {kilpatrik

  ] not only is a disgrace……he tried to play the race card doing it.the entire country knows his name.and his game…..the entire republican party of michigan has been energized because of the scandals……and with mich being so close.add the bradely effect…..mccain takes michigan……..as far as ohio goes………..the credible analysis goes like this: clinton won ohio big……and proceeded to rack up 12 out of the next 15 primaries………also.ohio will also have the bradley effect in play…add those..to the 20% of hillary voters ….mccain takes ohio…..more to follow shortly

• 22 quincyconscience // Aug 30, 2008 at 1:20 pm

  I vote we don’t acknowledge mark in future posts. He single handedly made me an Obama supporter and I would really not like him influencing other votes with slander. so what this thread should be about: Is it a valid measuring stick to look at past elections in this manner. For instance I can come up with some absurd situations. For instance no republican has lost Iowa, Colarado and New Mexico and won. Obviously McCain can be the first, and this does not have much of a hold on reality. Same for Obama with WV

• 23 mark connete // Aug 30, 2008 at 5:45 pm

  wow……quincy…what slander?…thats pretty tough….but again?.wheres the slander?,,,as a student of science.you should have some evidence for your hypothesis…do you sir?

• 24 Michael // Sep 1, 2008 at 8:08 pm

  I can tell you right now, being from Michigan, McCain will NOT win. People here are fed up with Bush and fed up with Republicans in general. I think the people of Michigan are smart enough to realize that McSame is George W Bush’s third term. And as for your comment on Jennifer Granholm, the people of Michigan are also smart enough to realize that the economy is not to blame on the government and that it started going downhill once John Engler was in office. And if you know anything about what Granholm has done in Michigan you would know she is offering HUGE tax breaks to companies to come here and build.

  Again, Michigan is in Obama’s column. And I think he’s got an excellent shot at winning Ohio as well.

• 25 mark connete // Sep 1, 2008 at 10:19 pm

  tax breaks for big companies.after the gov raises taxes on the people……….the mayor of detroit is a huge disgrace…playing the race card………..worst economy of the 50 states………..people leaving the state in droves……….and somehow thats mccain’s fault?..thats rich……how do you figure that the state economy isnt the democrats fault?………thanks for the laugh….

• 26 Brandon // Sep 2, 2008 at 4:02 am

  PA up for grabs. I do not think that Obama will get the Elderly vote here, which makes up about 30% of the voters in Pa and probably a 20-10 margin in votes. If 20% of the Obamunist’s do not vote that shifts the polls 4 points and it is a dead on fight. Not to mention the ones that do come out to vote and not for Obama. Don’t underestimate McCain in Pa just yet. Obama can win all of those other swing states like Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico then, and still be done. Ohio and Florida are going to McCain hands down. I think New Hampshire and Minnesota will also go to McCain this year, which would offset the loss of Virginia which McCain will probably squeak out.

• 27 Michael // Sep 2, 2008 at 9:26 am

  The last time I checked, our taxes where no higher than they’ve been in years past. I don’t know who told you that, probably from one of your conservative friends or Fox News. And to tell you the truth, nobody really cares about what’s going on in Detroit. Maybe because you’re a Republican, you’re hoping it’ll have an adverse affect on Democrats, but really nobody truly cares. It’s Detroit’s problem. They’ll take care of it.

  And yes, we do have one of the worst economies but it’s thanks to the companies for shipping jobs overseas and to the southern states that is causing this mess. Don’t blame Granholm just because it started to become a “big deal” during her administration.

• 28 mark connete // Sep 2, 2008 at 4:51 pm

  michael……….enjoy your kool-aid

• 29 Brandon // Sep 3, 2008 at 12:04 am

  Odds on this. I did some research and by judging my Electorial Map, it comes out a split tie- 269-269. In this case the House of Representatives Elects the President with 24 states pledging all of their delegates to the winner, and 26 states representatives able to choose the president at will. In this scenario, Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States, but with the Senate very close, and all Senators voting on Party lines, there will be a 50-50 split in votes leaving the Deciding Vote to none other than DICK CHENEY. We could have an amazing ticket of Obama-Palin in 08. Should be exciting.

• 30 Brandon // Sep 3, 2008 at 12:07 am

  Oh and if anybody wants to talk about real national topics, Look at the two candidates views on RFID’s (verichip) and the NAU-North American Union and switching to the Amero. Talk about taking a dump on the US Constitution.

• 31 mark // Sep 3, 2008 at 10:15 am

  brandon…………ok.Ill play along………just imagine if joe leiberman switched parties……..giving the republicans control over the senate in the event its a 269-269 tie……..hm makes you think.doesnt it……..

• 32 Fred // Sep 3, 2008 at 7:47 pm

  Brandon, when the Senate votes for the VP in case of an Electoral College tie, there must be a majority to win. The current VP does not get to break any ties. If it’s 50-50 they keep voting until someone gets 51.

  And when you say that Obama will win, what are you basing that on? When you say that 24 states are pledged all delegates to the winner, the winner of what? Sounds to me like you mean the popular vote. And if that’s what you mean than we will have to wait until people actually vote to see who that would be.
  Thanks

• 33 QuincyConscience // Sep 4, 2008 at 3:50 pm

  The Amero is a scare tactic. It will never come to be the way they are talking about. At least not anytime soon. BTW a majority of Americans support having international law having supremacy over national laws (See: dude where’s my country). So its not even like Americans would really care if they tied their economy to Canada and Mexico. Free healthcare from the North, Strong Military from the middle, and cheap labor from the south. There could be worse things in the world

• 34 mark // Sep 4, 2008 at 7:31 pm

  hahahahahaha….now thats funny….americans want to be controlled by international law……….yes.we just love the U.N…..americans would love for Kofi Anan to be in control of their lives…….maybe we could rotate presidents like they do in the u.n. thats the ticket……….its sorta like that thing kerry suggested…” a global test”…..that sounds swell.NOT………..id love to see that poll……

• 35 mark // Sep 4, 2008 at 7:33 pm

  I always get nervous when someone says.”free healthcare”…….the adults in the room know very well it isnt free

• 36 William // Sep 5, 2008 at 11:08 am

  I must disagree, I can’t fathom a majority of this country would willingly subvert themselves to the U.N. and other international bodies.

• 37 mark // Sep 5, 2008 at 3:39 pm

  william is for once.correct……..

• 38 QuincyConscience // Sep 6, 2008 at 3:39 am

  Michael Moore’s Dude Where’s My Country explains this. Americans hate the UN. However the UN is rarely seen at the maker of international law. The perception of a majority of Americans is that International law regards things like the Geneva Convention. Notice I did not say Americans love to be ruled my other entities simply that Americans tend to believe most of what they recognize as legitimate international law can not be breached. This may seem trivial as they do not recognize things like Kyoto as international law, but it is actually enormously important because it means that the average citizen can conceive of law higher than that of the national government. I was being sarcastic when I said Canada would give the US and Mexico free healthcare, as I was about the military, less so about the cheap labor (lrn2 sarcasm.) If you learn one thing from this post, have it be that you should know who the executive is at the head of the only recognized international government and that is not Kofi anymore. Ban Ki-Moon is the secretary general right now. Remember, for those of you who think that any party dislikes the UN: We invaded Iraq officially to enforce UN sanctions against them. War against Korea was the first military action by the UN and all of the initial force was from the US. The left has supported the humanitarian mission of the UN for ages. You are ruled by the UN more than you realize, but less than some people try to scare you into believing. This should really be the last post of this bizarre tangent, I’m done with it either way, but it was fun.

• 39 mark // Sep 6, 2008 at 7:49 am

  lol….I did know that kofi wasnt in charge anymore…………but I like typing his name..

• 40 Biiilllll // Sep 9, 2008 at 1:14 pm

  Yikes…. I also get 269/269 on my best guess…. I have McCain taking NC, VA, FL, OH, NH, NV and MO and Obamination taking CO, NM, IA, PA and MI….. this could end up being the mother of all elections…

• 41 mark // Sep 9, 2008 at 1:39 pm

  hi bill……..what are the odds ?.can you just imagine obama/palin.? in a congressional compromise……..ouch

• 42 tom // Sep 9, 2008 at 1:53 pm

  Biiillll-Yikes is right! A tie would be a travesty. There isn’t just one scenario, however it seems to occur when the states do the predictable. I put the danger at less than 5% in even the closest of elections. With the house and Senate in danger of their own ties, yikes again. All kinds of scenarios evolve once a tie is reached. Sure the house and senate will resolve, but planning for the transition must begin as soon as possible. What if political arm twisting occurs to sway house and senate votes? What if the house is controlled by one party and the senate another, resulting in one party president the other VP? What about Chuck Hagel, McCain’s old friend and Obama’s new one, how would he vote? If you thought the Y2K election was messed up, just wait until we have an actual tie.

• 43 mark // Sep 9, 2008 at 9:07 pm

  why was the 2000 election “messed up”………….seems to me we had a close election..we had a court challenge………..{by democrats wanting to change the rules in the middle of the game}…….The supreme court slapped down the florida supreme court……and george w bush was elected……….{even 3 recounts by the new york times showed bush winning all 3}.seems to me it worked out as it should have.the rule of law prevailed……….

• 44 William // Sep 9, 2008 at 11:32 pm

  I’m going to take 270′s word as gospel this time and hope there’s only 2-5% chance of a 269/269 tie. Of the states Bill has for McCain – VA, NC, OH, FL, NH, NV, and MO, I think it’s fair to say that Obama will get at least one of these swing states. If all other states are treated as constants, then that one victory would break the tie.

  It would be in everyone’s best interest to avoid another cluster—- like 2000.

  270toWin: I don’t think we’ve made any projection like that; we try and stay out of the prediction game. You may be seeing those kinds of outcomes on the simulator or as probabilities associated with an electoral map you’ve created, but keep in mind those reflect current polls which are purely based on an “If the election was today…” interpretation. These numbers will likely change frequently over the next two months.

• 45 tom // Sep 10, 2008 at 12:31 am

  It was the state of Florida’s responsibility to count the votes and send electors to the electoral college. The Supreme Court should have allowed the state of Florida to complete the process without interference.

• 46 mark // Sep 10, 2008 at 8:28 am

  tom…you are wrong.and heres how I get there……….If you look under florida election laws.the contest in florida has to be certified by the secretry of state of florida by a certain date……the democratic party sued the state to override the law that applies to any election within the state of florida…..the florida supreme court made an error{as said the supreme court}.you claim that florida didnt “complete the process} but that is false……now you might not agree with the supreme court’s decision………..I dont know what else you want……….there were 3 recounts by the state of florida.bush took every one of them.that was well before the supreme court stopped it……….then after the election major newspapers did 6 recounts………..each going to bush….{and with more votes each time}……….so you can disagree with the supreme court…but you cant claim the “process was intefered with}……………thats just my humble opinion..

• 47 Biiilllll // Sep 10, 2008 at 9:50 am

  Oracle Mark…. what’s your take on the final EV?
  Tom… thought it was interesting that Joe Lieb. was kicked out of having lunch with the dems until after the election. Wonder how he would vote if the EV tied and threw the VP election into the senate?
  William…. unfortunately think you could be correct that one of the swing states like NH will go blue then McCain would have to take CO or NM. Hopefully the Palin tsunami can continue to gain momentum and it will all be a moot point.

• 48 William // Sep 10, 2008 at 10:11 am

  In the end, bush won, but look what it took for that to happen: meddling by katherine harris, unjustly disenfranchising 57,000 voters by katherine harris and jeb bush, and getting daddy bush’s appointees on the highest court in the land to go to bat for him.

• 49 mark // Sep 10, 2008 at 11:27 am

  sorry william…katherine harris was sec. of state of florida.it was her job to certify the election.I’d hardly call that .”meddling”……………………………………………..bill…….I’m hardly an oracle………but one thing is clear obama’s 50 state strategy is no longer in play .his fundraising is down..his campaign is now on the defensive………as for a final prediction……I honestly dont know…..perhaps in a month……..

• 50 mark // Sep 10, 2008 at 11:30 am

  bill….the house of rep. gets to vote on the election in event of a tie.joe lieberman wont have any say in the matter

• 51 tom // Sep 10, 2008 at 11:39 am

  Really wasn’t considering so much the outcome as the process of getting there. It did not go so smoothly. The recounting of votes was stopped then restarted then derailed altogether. Most states have made efforts to improve their voting systems since then, however some of these systems have had flaws of their own.

• 52 mark // Sep 10, 2008 at 12:36 pm

  tom..well.you used the word “interference”…….and as I see it there was no choice because of democrats trying to break the law ……

• 53 tom // Sep 10, 2008 at 1:26 pm

  Mark- The U.S. Supreme Court should have stayed out of what was clearly a state matter. Also, I think Bill was referring to the VP vote which would be held in the Senate in case of tie.

• 54 William // Sep 10, 2008 at 2:32 pm

  katherine harris refused extend the certification deadlines to accomodate the pending recounts in certain counties. Given that she was chair of bush’s campaign in Florida in ’99, which is no doubt a conflict of interest, her recalcitrance is apparent. That woman deserves every ounce of ridicule coming her way.

• 55 mark // Sep 10, 2008 at 4:28 pm

  tom……….thanks for pointing that out about bill…………..and about the supreme court………..In my opinion it {ussc} had no choice but to act to stop florida supreme court from breaking the law……….that is their responsibility.especially in something as important as a presidential election………I hate to keep saying it but fla. state law did say the election had to be certified by a certain date……..and to do otherwise would be changing {breaking} CURRENT law…….In my humble opinion..

• 56 mark // Sep 10, 2008 at 4:31 pm

  another question:.isnt it a moot point?………after all the recounts done by the new york times.bush still got more votes

• 57 david // Sep 11, 2008 at 6:07 pm

  Goodness, I’ve never seen such self-delusion driven by 18+ months of shameless media fawning over a Manchurian Candidate.

  It will be 321 Electoral College votes for McCain/Palin, and 217 for Osama bin Biden.

  Yes; go out and actually talk to the groundlings across rural America and among hunters, fishermen, union members, farmers, ranchers, businesspeople…Balack Hussein Osama is a leftist media darling, period.

  He was a fabrication of Oprah Wimpey; all they needed out in ‘flyover country’ was a half-decent, honest person who could prove that (s)he would use good judgment in acting on the best assessments of the Joint Chiefs, the intelligence community, and the cabinet. John McCain doesn’t really meet that test, but with Sarah Barracuda right behind him, he will.

  And SHE definitely will, once she takes the White House. Which she will.

  You liberals keep listening to the fantasies of Barbra Streisand (all all the rest of Hollywood). Go back and watch Keith Olberman, Geraldo, Larry (‘the corpse’) King, Chris Matthews, and Oprah. Keep weaving wreaths out of dried daisies and marijuana leaves.

  Your boy is toast.

• 58 tom // Sep 12, 2008 at 3:23 pm

  David-You and your kind supported Bush’s lies about WMDs in Iraq. Bush knew that there was no evidence to support his claims and now hundreds of thousands of people are dead.

• 59 Jake // Sep 14, 2008 at 8:04 pm

  i see the election currently going to obama by a small margin as swing states turn to one side or the other. NH now going to the dems and NC/FL to republicans. Give PA/MI(if they can hang on to it) to the dems. WA/CO/NM/IA/Minnesota as well. Republicans get Missouri/NV/VA.

• 60 william // Sep 14, 2008 at 9:40 pm

  David, let me hear you say “4 more years!! 4 more years!!”

• 61 Brandon // Oct 16, 2008 at 4:43 am

  Statistic on Outsourcing and economic analysis. Companies that send jobs overseas actually able to hire more people and create more jobs. We lose jobs in short run because we are shifting our economy to maximize our competive advantage. By Maximizing our competive advantage, we are actually growing our GDP. Why do we need low paying jobs just to have jobs? What we need is a more productive system which allows our workers to maximize their potential. This keeps the prices of our goods down. For example if we want jobs, just to have jobs we can produce all of our clothing in America, we have the capability. But why pay someone $20 an hour to make one shirt when we can pay someone $.10 an hour to make it. Everyone is made better in the long run when we outsource our not so good jobs for higher paying American jobs. Our economy has been shifting from a manufacturing country to a service country. If you are not aware of this, they you will be left behind and complaining and whining. I suggest that people start learning more about laws of economics before they make bogus and outrageous claims.

• 62 Brandon // Oct 16, 2008 at 4:48 am

  Fred, sorry it took so long to get back. It does not go to a popular vote in the case of a tie. In the case of a tie the House votes for President and Senate votes for the Vice President. 24 states are required to vote for who their states voted for. Leaving 26 states the opportunity to go against their state and vote for the candidate of their choice. When it comes to the Senate, same rules apply, Leiberman would be required to vote for his state’s selection required by law. That leaves basically a split between the states where I calculated a current tie. One factor is that it goes for the next term senators, that could move it to Obama/Biden.

• 63 Jack // Nov 10, 2008 at 9:21 am

  granholm on barack obama…

  Nevertheless there will always be a minority who will not get the point you are trying to make….

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