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dear staff: If you run the simulator today……..what are the ratio’s now that have obama winning compared to how many times mccain wins….just curious………thanks
270toWin: The simulator runs constantly. The simulator results are showing about 26% McCain victories, but the midpoint is much closer than it was before the conventions…. about 284 to 254 right now. We’re probably a little on the conservative side, as some of these recent polls have shown a big McCain bounce. (McCain +20 in NC (SurveyUSA) is a little hard to totally buy into vis-a-vis where it has been). NOTE — wrote this before some of today’s (9/10) polls. There should be more movement toward even in the simulator this evening.
I would agree that the poll is probably way high for mccain…….my take is that its around 9-10% for mccain in north carolina.I also realize the simulator is running constantly…..i was curious if you had another breakdown of percentages like when you first introduced the simulator….thanks for a good site
these newest poll numbers today are starting to show that mccains bounce is holding………..what a remarkable achievment for the republican ticket………..intrade now has mccain at 51-48 over obama……..thats amazing considering mccain was at 28-32 a few weeks ago………..obama having lunch with bill clinton today.biden saying yesterday that hillary would have been a better pick……..hmmmmm is biden suddenly gonna drop out to make way for hillary???…………I feel an imaginary ilness in the biden family soon……………..
why is florida still marked as a toss up stae?………..even the three polls you highlight are showing mccain up by at least 5%………….clearly this state should be in mccains EV total…….
missouri is yet another state that shows your polls all going for mccain………the lowest is again 5%………..this also should go into mccains total
the home page should reflect that florida and missouri are no longer swing states……the total should be…………mccain 227………obama 207
Clearly the home page needs updating….
270toWin: The primary mission of this site remains educational…. personally we don’t give a *&+* who is ahead. We take a very conservative approach to modifying the swing states, as we don’t want to have to move them back once they are assigned to a candidate. There are still very recent polls showing Florida tied. Even NC, which we have moved to McCain’s column this week, is within 5 points on every poll except the outlier SurveyUSA poll (20 points). Just like with the Obama bounce after he clinched the nomination, the bounce McCain is getting this week will likely settle back in the weeks ahead.
There are plenty of other sites that will show you what you want to see or, you can change our map yourself to suit your purposes.
frontloading head quarters.{the site you recommended} is updated
hey.i was trying to help……..if you want it to be “educational”.then it should be accurate……….
270toWin: How do we really know what is ‘accurate’ until people vote on 11/4? The map is for the election, not the current polls.
so is it hard moving states back and forth from swing to leans one way or another?..or is it as simple as say……writing a blog???
and for your information:.my “purpose” is trying to find accurate polls that reflect the true nature of the contest……..the electoral college changes in this race seem to be outpacing the home page………..I suppose you could wait until the day before the election and update it………..but what would the point of the website be?……..if you can update the polls you use that come out daily..you most certainly can update the home page………..
so.you want to use the polls to gauge the home page map……but you wont change the home page to reflect current polls because they might not be accurate?……………thats pretty neat……….Im hoping you arent immune from constructive criticism…..no need to get fu%%*($ nasty about it………
I would like to applaud the 270towin.com staff for trying to deal with mark in a respective manner. I know this must be very trying for you as strive to maintain neutrality against someone who is clearly biased to the right.
Im not asking them to be a mccain advocate……..I merely wanted the home page to be as accurate as possible……………and I also never claimed I wasnt biased in my opinion of mccain……….I dont see the problem
so.since 7-29-08……….mccain has lead missouri by at least 5% and upwards reaching 10% Thats not what most people would consider a true swing state http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mo/missouri_mccain_vs_obama-545.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wa/washington_mccain_vs_obama-576.html so washing ton goes back to swing state …with a average of +6 for obama…and missouri stays a swing state with an average of +5 for mccain……………….how do you arrive at that conclusion…………
another poll in nc that has mccain up 17 points.perhaps the earlier one showing him up 20 wasnt such an outlier after all…………..hmmmmmmmmmm
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/11/14030/7529/890/595082 here is the link to the nc poll……………since my motives have been questioned.I figure I had better document the evidence………..and take note that the poll was paids for by daily kos……….not exactly a friend of john mccains……….
270toWin: It was surprising to see this result, given the source. Both polls will likely prove to be on the high side (Bush won by 12 in NC in 2004), but it is looking less and less likely that Obama will make significant inroads in the south — Virginia looks like his best bet, and that is basically a coin flip right now.
I liked this site alot better until people started launching propaganda campaigns on here…
270toWin: The blog is one of many new features we’ve tried this year. We were hoping the discussion would stay above the fray, but there’s a lot of passion out there, on both sides, so that may have been a bit pollyanish on our part.
The blog is not a bad idea, it is a great idea as a matter of fact. In the future you may want to consider more moderation for things people post in order to maintain the good reputation of your website.
270toWin: We approve every comment before it posts, although that is becoming less practical as the number of posts grow. We have not published a few that we thought were particularly inappropriate, but, in general, we don’t want to censor people nor do we have the resources to ‘edit for clarity’. If we had to do something we would probably just make it a passive blog (i.e., no comments allowed), but we’re hopeful that step won’t be necessary.
in stead of worrying about what people say on the blog……….isnt it more appropriate to worry about people actually commenting at all on the blog?…….lets face it……..its not exactly burning down the town…….without 2 or 3 of us here.it might as well be a “passive blog”
mccain has finally got a real genuine advantage right now. Obviously Mark is passionate that reality has caught up to what he was saying
the trend has been going that way since the conventions…………obviously it wasnt reality catching up with me…it was the blog not keeping pace with reality…………..I hate being right all the time
There is nothing wrong with censorship as long as it keeps your blog from becoming a stump for people like mark.
ah..the proof has never been more clear…………..”there is nothing wrong with censorship”.the world according to Alex………I rest my case…………your witness
McCain’s campaign can be summed up in a word: bounce. He’s had all this momentum and all he’s been able to do is narrow Obama’s lead in many states and get a negligible lead within the margin of error in a few.
On the other hand, it’s a safe bet that Obama won’t do well in the south besides VA and FL. NC will be close, but will end up being McCain by 3-4 methinks.
rassmussen actually weights their polls with about 7% more dems than republicans………..and mccain is still leading in their poll……..I knew they weighted it with more dems….but thats amazing……..
you want to know why Im so against obama?………..take the time to watch these two videos……they arent very long……….these videos right next to each other is devastating to senator obama…..http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/15/video-flashback-obama-touts-experience-at-nonprofit-founded-by-ayers/
My guess is that the Obama campaign will be moving people from North Carolina to Virginia in the near future, sort of how they recently moved people from Georgia to NC. It looked like Obama had a realistic shot at NC a few months ago, but I don’t see it happening. He has a much better shot at Virginia, which could go either way at this point IMO.
jeff……………I agree with that……….I was also reading about the millions that obama has spent in states like north dakota, georgia, and that mccain has yet to run any ads in many of those states…………and obama is still sinking in those state’s polls…………also a quick note:..obama is having to spend time fundraising and has massive overhead to pay out……….he brought in 66 million…but he spent 45 doing it………….not a good idea
Yes, that’s right. Obama continues to raise more money than bush 44…er, mcSame… er, john w. mcbush.
Didn’t watch the neo-con pornography, but here’s a good clip from the romney camp. It’s relevant again now in that it shows how bush 44 (to wit mccain) would handle our national economy. Note 4the tremendous deference shown to phil gramm (mentioned 4 times in 3 minutes), who thinks we’re a nation of whiners in a mental recession.
It’s the economy bushies.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqGWTh_NZ-0
mccain cant raise any more money………he took public financing………….duh………….obama said he would take public financing.but he lied…………..notice a pattern?…………..If you want to gloat about obama outraising mccain………………….feel free……………but it makes you look ridiculous………
thats a riot………….obama can out raise a man who cant raise any more money…………thats a real notch on obama’s belt……….sort of like a one legged man in an ass kickin contest..hahahahahaha
Alex, while I don’t agree with Mark I don’t see how censoring him would accomplish anything good. Censorship is rarely a good thing.
William, if you want me to take you serious and consider checking out your link, do us a favor and drop the McSame/McBush garbage. It stopped being clever and or funny a long time ago. Make it sound like you’re just spewing the lefts propaganda and not making a valid point. You may be making a valid point, but many may miss it.
270 to Win, thanks for the Widget, it’s a great feature.
I noticed that in every election since DC has had 3 electorial votes (1960′s), they have voted for the democrats. So how can they blame anyone else for DC issues? It’s always in the democrats pockets right?
Yes, it is a notch on his belt. When he doesn’t have to rely on public funds b/c he can do better, it says one thing to people: confidence.
McLoser (have it your way fred) doesn’t have any confidence. Instead, he uses the typical republican under-handed tactics that even karl rove denounced this time!!! ouch, that’s got to hurt (talk about phrases that weren’t even funny several weeks ago).
I notice how you ducked the part about mcloser’s likely treasury secretary phil gramm. Want to talk about the “strong fundamentals of the economy” instead?
No more lame similes please.
The recent market turn and economy is tied to sub-prime loans in the housing sector. Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae were taken over by the gov. and spurred that market response. You can’t really blame anyone but gov. in the first place for allowing (in some cases forcing) sub prime lending to ppl who cannot afford their bills.
To tie McCain to any of the recent economy downturn is absurd. Chris Dodd is the #1 benefactor of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae contribution, with Barack Obama (only in Dc for 3 years) the #5 benefactor of contributions from the two companies.
The recent downturn is not as bad as the media has made it. In fact I have bought stock and made money off those losses already. I am not for McCain or against Obama, but I think that everyone deserves blame for this downturn, especially the Congress, which has done nothing over the past two years to make their complaints seem justified. Gov. is not the solution, it’s the problem.
I found that this website is great. I really like all the past electorial maps to show how things have grown over the past 200 years.
nick……..correct………….and lets not forget that it was the bush admin that wanted more regulation of the housing giants freddie and fannie…and guess who blocked it.barney frank and the democrats.they claimed that low income minorities would not have a chance to own a home…………now I do fault bush for some of the trouble…………..but clearly it was the democrats that prevented legislation that could have stopped some people from buying a home that clearly couldnt afford it………….
ok willy………….so you think its a good thing that obama lied about his campaign taking public financing?…………..for all the democrats bluster about “too much money in politics’…they sure love it…dont they?……..p.s………. obama is hosting a 28,500 a plate fundraiser in hollywood……………..sound like the economy is tanking to you?……..
another side note:…harry reid asked obama for 10 million to help other democrats running for congress and senate……….obama said {drum roll} nope………..and obama was the one who said at the saddleback forum..” we need to be more giving in america”……and his running mate joe biden.gave……get this….160 bucks to charity last year…………….and lets not forget the powerful chairman of the ways and means comm in congress.charlie rangel…………hasnt paid taxes on property he owns in the caribbean………..and as reported….has been asked to step down…………..also.charlie also owns 3 rent controlled properties in harlem.same story.no taxes paid………….didnt pelosi say something about.”open and honest govt”……………
it gets better every minute……….senator burns and senator dodd {conn, and north dakota} got sweetheart deals for their houses..by fannie mae………and guess which senator got more money for their campaigns senator dodd.sen burns….and…sen. obama………..who also by the way leads mccain in money given by oil exec’s…………
this is getting disgusting………….the more we learn about obama’s friends…the more clear it should become that obama is not an acceptable person to be the president of the united states…………….the man who obama calls “a friend ” william ayers actually traveled to canada to receive a ring that the viet cong made for him…..the metal used to make this ring was fashioned out of metal that they got from shooting down american military personnel…..{maybe even from john mccains plane}………and ayers was seen actually crying after getting his ring.{bernadine dorn also got a ring}………then ayers proclaimed…………..”I come from an evil country”………….now I dont hold obama responsible for what ayers did…I do hold him accountable for befriending ayers.sitting on 2 boards with the man……………and now lying about the relationship………It is also disgusting that this man bill ayers is now teaching at the university of chicago{il}……..let it also be known that ayers also hired obama to chair the {annenberg challenge} this was a foundation that funneled money to rev jerimiah wright……father flaegger…..and the racist rev meeks of chicago…………
http://www.thehammondreport.com/2008/05/05/bill-ayers-obama-s-friend/ this is a picture of obama’s friend desecrating the american flag……..
penny pritzker………….remember her name……….she was president of superior bank in illinois her bank was a sub-prime money lender to minorities that couldnt afford to buy a home……..her bank was shut down in early 2008…………..guess who obama;s campaign finance director is……………….penny pritzker……………another bad decision by senator obama?.you make the call
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/09/16/obamas-finance-chair-failed-bank-owner-penny-pritzker-and-todays-wall-street-problem/#more-4842 heres more on the bank seizure of obama’s campaign finance director.
mark, I don’t have time to debate you point for point on this, but I’m certain that 99% of what you’ve posted on here today is total b.s.
hahahahaha.what you really mean to say is:………….I wont look at the facts cause I might be wrong……..,claiming you dont have “time to debate me”…is a cowardly and intellectually dishonest reply………….I provided links about obama’s campaign finance director….I provided links about william ayers and his dealings with barack obama…….so dont tell me you dont have the “time”……..you dont have the stones……….is more like it.you also said you are “certain” that 99% of everything ive posted is untrue…………………..question: how are you certain?
Are people that insecure in their positions, that they dismiss undeniable facts?………..sometimes I think some people should stay home and not vote…………let the adults and the critical thinkers decide……….{Im not suggesting repealing voting rights}….Im simply postulating
Mark…. fact check for me if you know on this…. my understanding was that Obama supported the overturning of Bush’s partial birth abortion veto – is that correct?…. also I have heard that Obama is on record as being pro-infanticide (ok to kill a baby that survives an abortion) – is that correct also?
IMO…. partial birth abortion is a winning campaign position – I think the typical American voter would be appalled if enlightened that the democrat party has generally taken this position – IMO the typical voter has no idea what PBO is and that the dems support what I consider to be an extreme position.
Love to hear your take on things Mark… love your fact citations… keep up the good work (just be gentle with our misguided fellow Americans).
My take on it is that a national campaign focused on what PBO is and that it is generally supported by dems would make inroads with many voters.
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