54 responses so far ↓

• 1 mark // Sep 10, 2008 at 3:09 pm

  dear staff: If you run the simulator today……..what are the ratio’s now that have obama winning compared to how many times mccain wins….just curious………thanks

  270toWin: The simulator runs constantly. The simulator results are showing about 26% McCain victories, but the midpoint is much closer than it was before the conventions…. about 284 to 254 right now. We’re probably a little on the conservative side, as some of these recent polls have shown a big McCain bounce. (McCain +20 in NC (SurveyUSA) is a little hard to totally buy into vis-a-vis where it has been). NOTE — wrote this before some of today’s (9/10) polls. There should be more movement toward even in the simulator this evening.

• 2 mark // Sep 10, 2008 at 5:30 pm

  I would agree that the poll is probably way high for mccain…….my take is that its around 9-10% for mccain in north carolina.I also realize the simulator is running constantly…..i was curious if you had another breakdown of percentages like when you first introduced the simulator….thanks for a good site

• 3 mark // Sep 11, 2008 at 12:09 pm

  these newest poll numbers today are starting to show that mccains bounce is holding………..what a remarkable achievment for the republican ticket………..intrade now has mccain at 51-48 over obama……..thats amazing considering mccain was at 28-32 a few weeks ago………..obama having lunch with bill clinton today.biden saying yesterday that hillary would have been a better pick……..hmmmmm is biden suddenly gonna drop out to make way for hillary???…………I feel an imaginary ilness in the biden family soon……………..

• 4 mark // Sep 12, 2008 at 10:14 am

  why is florida still marked as a toss up stae?………..even the three polls you highlight are showing mccain up by at least 5%………….clearly this state should be in mccains EV total…….

• 5 mark // Sep 12, 2008 at 10:16 am

  missouri is yet another state that shows your polls all going for mccain………the lowest is again 5%………..this also should go into mccains total

• 6 mark // Sep 12, 2008 at 10:23 am

  the home page should reflect that florida and missouri are no longer swing states……the total should be…………mccain 227………obama 207

• 7 mark // Sep 12, 2008 at 10:25 am

  Clearly the home page needs updating….

  270toWin: The primary mission of this site remains educational…. personally we don’t give a *&+* who is ahead. We take a very conservative approach to modifying the swing states, as we don’t want to have to move them back once they are assigned to a candidate. There are still very recent polls showing Florida tied. Even NC, which we have moved to McCain’s column this week, is within 5 points on every poll except the outlier SurveyUSA poll (20 points). Just like with the Obama bounce after he clinched the nomination, the bounce McCain is getting this week will likely settle back in the weeks ahead.

  There are plenty of other sites that will show you what you want to see or, you can change our map yourself to suit your purposes.

• 8 mark // Sep 12, 2008 at 10:30 am

  frontloading head quarters.{the site you recommended} is updated

• 9 mark // Sep 12, 2008 at 11:32 am

  hey.i was trying to help……..if you want it to be “educational”.then it should be accurate……….

  270toWin: How do we really know what is ‘accurate’ until people vote on 11/4? The map is for the election, not the current polls.

• 10 mark // Sep 12, 2008 at 11:34 am

  so is it hard moving states back and forth from swing to leans one way or another?..or is it as simple as say……writing a blog???

• 11 mark // Sep 12, 2008 at 11:45 am

  and for your information:.my “purpose” is trying to find accurate polls that reflect the true nature of the contest……..the electoral college changes in this race seem to be outpacing the home page………..I suppose you could wait until the day before the election and update it………..but what would the point of the website be?……..if you can update the polls you use that come out daily..you most certainly can update the home page………..

• 12 mark // Sep 12, 2008 at 12:07 pm

  so.you want to use the polls to gauge the home page map……but you wont change the home page to reflect current polls because they might not be accurate?……………thats pretty neat……….Im hoping you arent immune from constructive criticism…..no need to get fu%%*($ nasty about it………

• 13 Alex // Sep 12, 2008 at 3:02 pm

  I would like to applaud the 270towin.com staff for trying to deal with mark in a respective manner. I know this must be very trying for you as strive to maintain neutrality against someone who is clearly biased to the right.

• 14 mark // Sep 12, 2008 at 5:55 pm

  Im not asking them to be a mccain advocate……..I merely wanted the home page to be as accurate as possible……………and I also never claimed I wasnt biased in my opinion of mccain……….I dont see the problem

• 15 mark // Sep 12, 2008 at 6:06 pm

  so.since 7-29-08……….mccain has lead missouri by at least 5% and upwards reaching 10% Thats not what most people would consider a true swing state http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mo/missouri_mccain_vs_obama-545.html

• 16 mark // Sep 12, 2008 at 8:40 pm

  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wa/washington_mccain_vs_obama-576.html so washing ton goes back to swing state …with a average of +6 for obama…and missouri stays a swing state with an average of +5 for mccain……………….how do you arrive at that conclusion…………

• 17 mark // Sep 13, 2008 at 12:03 pm

  another poll in nc that has mccain up 17 points.perhaps the earlier one showing him up 20 wasnt such an outlier after all…………..hmmmmmmmmmm

• 18 mark // Sep 13, 2008 at 12:08 pm

  http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/11/14030/7529/890/595082 here is the link to the nc poll……………since my motives have been questioned.I figure I had better document the evidence………..and take note that the poll was paids for by daily kos……….not exactly a friend of john mccains……….

  270toWin: It was surprising to see this result, given the source. Both polls will likely prove to be on the high side (Bush won by 12 in NC in 2004), but it is looking less and less likely that Obama will make significant inroads in the south — Virginia looks like his best bet, and that is basically a coin flip right now.

• 19 Alex // Sep 13, 2008 at 1:08 pm

  I liked this site alot better until people started launching propaganda campaigns on here…

  270toWin: The blog is one of many new features we’ve tried this year. We were hoping the discussion would stay above the fray, but there’s a lot of passion out there, on both sides, so that may have been a bit pollyanish on our part.

• 20 Alex // Sep 13, 2008 at 2:23 pm

  The blog is not a bad idea, it is a great idea as a matter of fact. In the future you may want to consider more moderation for things people post in order to maintain the good reputation of your website.

  270toWin: We approve every comment before it posts, although that is becoming less practical as the number of posts grow. We have not published a few that we thought were particularly inappropriate, but, in general, we don’t want to censor people nor do we have the resources to ‘edit for clarity’. If we had to do something we would probably just make it a passive blog (i.e., no comments allowed), but we’re hopeful that step won’t be necessary.

• 21 mark // Sep 14, 2008 at 2:41 pm

  in stead of worrying about what people say on the blog……….isnt it more appropriate to worry about people actually commenting at all on the blog?…….lets face it……..its not exactly burning down the town…….without 2 or 3 of us here.it might as well be a “passive blog”

• 22 QuincyConscience // Sep 14, 2008 at 2:46 pm

  mccain has finally got a real genuine advantage right now. Obviously Mark is passionate that reality has caught up to what he was saying

• 23 mark // Sep 14, 2008 at 4:05 pm

  the trend has been going that way since the conventions…………obviously it wasnt reality catching up with me…it was the blog not keeping pace with reality…………..I hate being right all the time

• 24 Alex // Sep 14, 2008 at 6:08 pm

  There is nothing wrong with censorship as long as it keeps your blog from becoming a stump for people like mark.

• 25 mark // Sep 14, 2008 at 6:25 pm

  ah..the proof has never been more clear…………..”there is nothing wrong with censorship”.the world according to Alex………I rest my case…………your witness

• 26 william // Sep 14, 2008 at 9:30 pm

  McCain’s campaign can be summed up in a word: bounce. He’s had all this momentum and all he’s been able to do is narrow Obama’s lead in many states and get a negligible lead within the margin of error in a few.

  On the other hand, it’s a safe bet that Obama won’t do well in the south besides VA and FL. NC will be close, but will end up being McCain by 3-4 methinks.

• 27 mark // Sep 15, 2008 at 9:57 am

  rassmussen actually weights their polls with about 7% more dems than republicans………..and mccain is still leading in their poll……..I knew they weighted it with more dems….but thats amazing……..

• 28 mark // Sep 15, 2008 at 4:41 pm

  you want to know why Im so against obama?………..take the time to watch these two videos……they arent very long……….these videos right next to each other is devastating to senator obama…..http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/15/video-flashback-obama-touts-experience-at-nonprofit-founded-by-ayers/

• 29 Jeff // Sep 15, 2008 at 5:00 pm

  My guess is that the Obama campaign will be moving people from North Carolina to Virginia in the near future, sort of how they recently moved people from Georgia to NC. It looked like Obama had a realistic shot at NC a few months ago, but I don’t see it happening. He has a much better shot at Virginia, which could go either way at this point IMO.

• 30 mark // Sep 15, 2008 at 6:58 pm

  jeff……………I agree with that……….I was also reading about the millions that obama has spent in states like north dakota, georgia, and that mccain has yet to run any ads in many of those states…………and obama is still sinking in those state’s polls…………also a quick note:..obama is having to spend time fundraising and has massive overhead to pay out……….he brought in 66 million…but he spent 45 doing it………….not a good idea

• 31 William // Sep 15, 2008 at 8:24 pm

  Yes, that’s right. Obama continues to raise more money than bush 44…er, mcSame… er, john w. mcbush.

  Didn’t watch the neo-con pornography, but here’s a good clip from the romney camp. It’s relevant again now in that it shows how bush 44 (to wit mccain) would handle our national economy. Note 4the tremendous deference shown to phil gramm (mentioned 4 times in 3 minutes), who thinks we’re a nation of whiners in a mental recession.

  It’s the economy bushies.

  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqGWTh_NZ-0

• 32 mark // Sep 15, 2008 at 10:13 pm

  mccain cant raise any more money………he took public financing………….duh………….obama said he would take public financing.but he lied…………..notice a pattern?…………..If you want to gloat about obama outraising mccain………………….feel free……………but it makes you look ridiculous………

• 33 mark // Sep 15, 2008 at 10:15 pm

  thats a riot………….obama can out raise a man who cant raise any more money…………thats a real notch on obama’s belt……….sort of like a one legged man in an ass kickin contest..hahahahahaha

• 34 Fred // Sep 16, 2008 at 12:45 am

  Alex, while I don’t agree with Mark I don’t see how censoring him would accomplish anything good. Censorship is rarely a good thing.

  William, if you want me to take you serious and consider checking out your link, do us a favor and drop the McSame/McBush garbage. It stopped being clever and or funny a long time ago. Make it sound like you’re just spewing the lefts propaganda and not making a valid point. You may be making a valid point, but many may miss it.

  270 to Win, thanks for the Widget, it’s a great feature.

• 35 Nick // Sep 16, 2008 at 9:25 am

  I noticed that in every election since DC has had 3 electorial votes (1960’s), they have voted for the democrats. So how can they blame anyone else for DC issues? It’s always in the democrats pockets right?

• 36 William // Sep 16, 2008 at 9:47 am

  Yes, it is a notch on his belt. When he doesn’t have to rely on public funds b/c he can do better, it says one thing to people: confidence.

  McLoser (have it your way fred) doesn’t have any confidence. Instead, he uses the typical republican under-handed tactics that even karl rove denounced this time!!! ouch, that’s got to hurt (talk about phrases that weren’t even funny several weeks ago).

  I notice how you ducked the part about mcloser’s likely treasury secretary phil gramm. Want to talk about the “strong fundamentals of the economy” instead?

  No more lame similes please.

• 37 Nick // Sep 16, 2008 at 10:04 am

  The recent market turn and economy is tied to sub-prime loans in the housing sector. Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae were taken over by the gov. and spurred that market response. You can’t really blame anyone but gov. in the first place for allowing (in some cases forcing) sub prime lending to ppl who cannot afford their bills.

  To tie McCain to any of the recent economy downturn is absurd. Chris Dodd is the #1 benefactor of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae contribution, with Barack Obama (only in Dc for 3 years) the #5 benefactor of contributions from the two companies.

  The recent downturn is not as bad as the media has made it. In fact I have bought stock and made money off those losses already. I am not for McCain or against Obama, but I think that everyone deserves blame for this downturn, especially the Congress, which has done nothing over the past two years to make their complaints seem justified. Gov. is not the solution, it’s the problem.

• 38 Nick // Sep 16, 2008 at 10:21 am

  I found that this website is great. I really like all the past electorial maps to show how things have grown over the past 200 years.

• 39 mark // Sep 16, 2008 at 11:09 am

  nick……..correct………….and lets not forget that it was the bush admin that wanted more regulation of the housing giants freddie and fannie…and guess who blocked it.barney frank and the democrats.they claimed that low income minorities would not have a chance to own a home…………now I do fault bush for some of the trouble…………..but clearly it was the democrats that prevented legislation that could have stopped some people from buying a home that clearly couldnt afford it………….

• 40 mark // Sep 16, 2008 at 11:13 am

  ok willy………….so you think its a good thing that obama lied about his campaign taking public financing?…………..for all the democrats bluster about “too much money in politics’…they sure love it…dont they?……..p.s………. obama is hosting a 28,500 a plate fundraiser in hollywood……………..sound like the economy is tanking to you?……..

• 41 mark // Sep 16, 2008 at 11:20 am

  another side note:…harry reid asked obama for 10 million to help other democrats running for congress and senate……….obama said {drum roll} nope………..and obama was the one who said at the saddleback forum..” we need to be more giving in america”……and his running mate joe biden.gave……get this….160 bucks to charity last year…………….and lets not forget the powerful chairman of the ways and means comm in congress.charlie rangel…………hasnt paid taxes on property he owns in the caribbean………..and as reported….has been asked to step down…………..also.charlie also owns 3 rent controlled properties in harlem.same story.no taxes paid………….didnt pelosi say something about.”open and honest govt”……………

• 42 mark // Sep 16, 2008 at 11:24 am

  it gets better every minute……….senator burns and senator dodd {conn, and north dakota} got sweetheart deals for their houses..by fannie mae………and guess which senator got more money for their campaigns senator dodd.sen burns….and…sen. obama………..who also by the way leads mccain in money given by oil exec’s…………

• 43 mark // Sep 16, 2008 at 12:33 pm

  this is getting disgusting………….the more we learn about obama’s friends…the more clear it should become that obama is not an acceptable person to be the president of the united states…………….the man who obama calls “a friend ” william ayers actually traveled to canada to receive a ring that the viet cong made for him…..the metal used to make this ring was fashioned out of metal that they got from shooting down american military personnel…..{maybe even from john mccains plane}………and ayers was seen actually crying after getting his ring.{bernadine dorn also got a ring}………then ayers proclaimed…………..”I come from an evil country”………….now I dont hold obama responsible for what ayers did…I do hold him accountable for befriending ayers.sitting on 2 boards with the man……………and now lying about the relationship………It is also disgusting that this man bill ayers is now teaching at the university of chicago{il}……..let it also be known that ayers also hired obama to chair the {annenberg challenge} this was a foundation that funneled money to rev jerimiah wright……father flaegger…..and the racist rev meeks of chicago…………

• 44 mark // Sep 16, 2008 at 12:38 pm

  http://www.thehammondreport.com/2008/05/05/bill-ayers-obama-s-friend/ this is a picture of obama’s friend desecrating the american flag……..

• 45 mark // Sep 16, 2008 at 2:14 pm

  penny pritzker………….remember her name……….she was president of superior bank in illinois her bank was a sub-prime money lender to minorities that couldnt afford to buy a home……..her bank was shut down in early 2008…………..guess who obama;s campaign finance director is……………….penny pritzker……………another bad decision by senator obama?.you make the call

• 46 mark // Sep 16, 2008 at 2:16 pm

  http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/09/16/obamas-finance-chair-failed-bank-owner-penny-pritzker-and-todays-wall-street-problem/#more-4842 heres more on the bank seizure of obama’s campaign finance director.

• 47 William // Sep 16, 2008 at 3:51 pm

  mark, I don’t have time to debate you point for point on this, but I’m certain that 99% of what you’ve posted on here today is total b.s.

• 48 mark // Sep 16, 2008 at 4:40 pm

  hahahahaha.what you really mean to say is:………….I wont look at the facts cause I might be wrong……..,claiming you dont have “time to debate me”…is a cowardly and intellectually dishonest reply………….I provided links about obama’s campaign finance director….I provided links about william ayers and his dealings with barack obama…….so dont tell me you dont have the “time”……..you dont have the stones……….is more like it.you also said you are “certain” that 99% of everything ive posted is untrue…………………..question: how are you certain?

• 49 mark // Sep 16, 2008 at 6:16 pm

  Are people that insecure in their positions, that they dismiss undeniable facts?………..sometimes I think some people should stay home and not vote…………let the adults and the critical thinkers decide……….{Im not suggesting repealing voting rights}….Im simply postulating

• 50 Biiiilllll // Sep 18, 2008 at 4:05 pm

  Mark…. fact check for me if you know on this…. my understanding was that Obama supported the overturning of Bush’s partial birth abortion veto - is that correct?…. also I have heard that Obama is on record as being pro-infanticide (ok to kill a baby that survives an abortion) - is that correct also?
  IMO…. partial birth abortion is a winning campaign position - I think the typical American voter would be appalled if enlightened that the democrat party has generally taken this position - IMO the typical voter has no idea what PBO is and that the dems support what I consider to be an extreme position.
  Love to hear your take on things Mark… love your fact citations… keep up the good work (just be gentle with our misguided fellow Americans).
  My take on it is that a national campaign focused on what PBO is and that it is generally supported by dems would make inroads with many voters.

• 51 mark // Sep 19, 2008 at 7:30 am

  ok..the facts on the {born alive infant protection act}…………..it is a fact that obama voted to deny medical care to infants that survived an abortion.he said it would be……………” a burden on the doctors”……….and that he thought it would be a law that was intended to “undermine the womans ” decision to have an abortion………..im sure obama doesnt call it infanticide….but I think the word is very accurate……..once the baby is out side the womb …and breathing….it clearly becomes a human with legal protections………..,with the help of the main stream media……obama has yet to be taken to task for this position…….even the ultra liberal barbara boxer of california called this inhumane………..my opinion is that if you let a baby die in a closet without medical care…………..its murder…..there is simply no amount of political spin that makes this even remotely ok…………

• 52 Biiiilllll // Sep 19, 2008 at 4:09 pm

  Mark… ouch…. sounds even stronger than I thought…. “burden on the docs”… wow…. it seems sure to me that Obama would be hurt by an ad campaign highlighting his PBA support and his stand on the “Born Alive Infant Protection Act” (what a name - so very appropriate).
  I totally concur with your opinion that putting a baby in a closet to die is murder and I can’t help but think that the majority of Americans would agree also if educated via an ad campaign. Even with just a stick figure sanitized graphic, the typical American would surely be disgusted to think of a baby being fully delivered except for the head and then having its brains sucked out. Unfortunately Obama and Biden will still get to vote to reject pro-life supreme court justices nominees even when defeated. I think future generations may well look back on our 38MM baby deaths as having been more barbaric than Nazi Germany’s 6MM Jews killed.

• 53 Biiiilllll // Sep 19, 2008 at 4:36 pm

  270 red states seems to be looking like a better possibility to me now… if McCain takes the big red leaners (OH, FL, VA & MO that seem like probable red states) and can snatch either WI or MN…. he can then cede NM, NV, IA, CO and PA and still end up exactly at 270.
  So two observations…..
  1) Can you imagine the dem wailing if the EV goes 270 McCain with the dems winning the popular vote for the second time in one decade?
  2) Kudos to the GOP for holding the convention in the swing state of MN.

• 54 Fred // Sep 19, 2008 at 6:52 pm

  Just think if it goes like that other topic here and it appears to be a tie in the Electoral College but Obama takes that 1 vote in Nebraska. Or in a less likely scenario where Nebraska goes all for McCain but he managed to get 1 vote from Maine. That would be interesting.

  The Republicans may go after Minnestota to try to keep Al Frankin out of the Sentate.

Leave a Comment