The electoral map will change for the 2012 election, based on the results of the 2010 census. Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution specifies that a census will take place every ten years to (among other things) apportion representation in Congress. Since each state has one Electoral Vote for each senator and representative, these numbers shift over time since not all parts of the country are growing at the same pace.
We’ve taken a look at some Census population projections for 2010 and plugged them into the current formula for apportionment. These population projections were made before Hurricane Katrina, so we’ve made a slight modification for that, but otherwise we’ve left them along.
The real 2010 numbers will undoubtedly differ, and Congress could change the rules for apportionment, but we thought we’d present this early look at what states would gain or lose Electoral Votes starting with 2012 based on those estimates:
- +3: Texas
- +2: Florida
- +1: Arizona, California, Georgia, Nevada, Utah
- -1: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Pennsylvania
- -2: New York, Ohio
No real surprises here - population continues to shift away from northern, industrial states to the sunbelt. Their likely will be more and/or different changes than the above. For example,


1 response so far ↓
1 dr zeus // Feb 25, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Republican Strongholds
+3 Texas
+1 Arizona, Georgia, Utah
-1 Louisiana
Democrat Strongholds
+1 California
-1 Illinois, Massachusetts, New York
Swing States
+ 2 Florida
+1 Nevada
-1 Iowa, Missouri, Pennsylvania
-2 Ohio
Republicans gain 5 votes, Democrats lose 2 votes.
On swing votes, Republicans lose 1 vote and Democrats lose 2 votes, so Republics gain 4 safe + likely votes while Democrats lose 4 safe + likely votes.
The Democrats best chance is to ingratiate themselves with the growing Hispanic demographic which has yet to form a bloc. This could win them AZ, NM, and possibly TX in future contests. However, Republicans have a much stronger hold of their core states than Democrats so the demographics favor the GOP.
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