Update 12/22/10: The 2010 Census results are out and our interactive map has been updated to reflect the redistribution of electoral votes. We’ve also written an updated post on 2012 Electoral Votes by State.
The electoral map will change for the 2012 election, based on the results of the 2010 census. Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution specifies that a census will take place every ten years to (among other things) apportion representation in Congress. Since each state has one Electoral Vote for each senator and representative, these numbers shift over time since not all parts of the country are growing at the same pace.
We’ve taken a look at some Census population projections for 2010 and plugged them into the current formula for apportionment. These population projections were made before Hurricane Katrina, so we’ve made a slight modification for that, but otherwise we’ve left them alone.
The real 2010 numbers will undoubtedly differ, and Congress could change the rules for apportionment, but we thought we’d present this early look at what states would gain or lose Electoral Votes starting with 2012 based on those estimates:
- +3: Texas
- +2: Florida
- +1: Arizona, California, Georgia, Nevada, Utah
- -1: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Pennsylvania
- -2: New York, Ohio
No real surprises here – population continues to shift away from northern, industrial states to the sunbelt. Their likely will be more and/or different changes than the above.