Early polling is showing that the race in Virginia, a state that hasn’t voted Democratic since 1964, may be very close this year. We were just playing around with a scenario where that state could be decisive.
In this scenario, Obama maintains his lead and wins the block of states in the economically struggling upper Midwest, including IA and WI which have been very close in recent elections. He also wins the southwestern states of NV, CO and NM based on the evolving demographics in those states. However, in this scenario, Obama is not able to overcome the difficulties he had in the primaries with the working-class white voters and loses both Ohio and Pennsylvania.
This leaves McCain with 268 electoral votes and Obama with 257, and Virginia becomes decisive.
Thoughts?
17 responses so far ↓
1 Ell // Jul 26, 2008 at 10:57 am
I have almost the same thing but Obama takes PA and VA, I have CO turned red due the large indenpendent electorate and MI is the Pivotal Swing State.
2 quincyconscience // Jul 27, 2008 at 3:41 am
I think what is most interesting is the possibility of the electoral college almost tying except for one vote, Omaha Nebraska splitting with the state and voting for Obama or a district in Maine voting for Mccain. I think a situation like this is more interesting than any state becoming a battleground, imagine solitary districts being polled.
3 Jack // Jul 27, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Two thoughts:
1) I have a hard time believing that Obama would lose Pennsylvania and win the election. Pennsylvania may be a swing state, but it is a bluish swing state, as polls (and indeed the results of the last two elections) have shown. If Obama loses Pennsylvania, that would be a sign that he’s not doing well across the board.
2) I highly doubt that any districts in Nebraska will go for Obama, or any districts in Maine will go for McCain, unless there is a landslide. The most Democratic district in Nebraska is the 2nd district, which has a CPVI of R+9. (The Cook Partisan Voting Index averages the results of the two previous elections and compares them the national average. A R+9 district would have voted nine percentage points more republican than the national average.) It would take a landslide Democratic year to swing this district. If Obama wins it, the election would not be close.
Similarly, the most Republican district in Maine is its 2nd district, which has a CPVI of D+4. It would also take a very good year for Republicans to win this district, and if they won it, it would be a sign that they were winning about everywhere else too. It would be exceedingly unlikely for a Republican to win Maine’s 2nd and lose, say, Virginia, Ohio, or other key swing states. Besides, Obama has been polling with VERY large leads in Maine, recently ranging from 8 to 20 points.
4 quincyconscience // Jul 28, 2008 at 3:55 am
Coming from the Northeast I think it is possible to underestimate the possibility of a McCain-Romney ticket doing exceptionally well in one district in Maine. Remember Romney won as governor of Massachusetts, a CPVI D+15. Also McCain is widely seen as a maverick with many values that are popular in Maine such as campaign finance and environmentalism. It is at least possible that one district could vote for a historically moderate republican with a regional political star, especially in a state that has two republican senators. Granted that this is highly improbable that it will coincide with a tie in the rest of the college, but its more possible than it was in say 2004. Nebraska is even more of a long shot, but is still a fun little thought experiment.
5 marktarheel // Jul 28, 2008 at 10:42 am
well……..the map is almost correct….with the exception being in the southwest.obama wont do as well as he thinks……….colorado is going to go for mccain..
270TOWIN: Interestingly, if you are right about Colorado and if McCain also takes Virginia, then should PA go to Obama, we get a 269-269 tie. As of today, we’d say this 269-269 scenario is more likely than the map we displayed with VA as deciding state, but time will tell.
6 John Anderson // Jul 28, 2008 at 7:57 pm
So what happens if there is a tie 269-269?
270TOWIN: We’ve got another post that goes through that scenario.
7 quincyconscience // Jul 29, 2008 at 2:45 am
This may be the year of the small states when it comes right down to it. It is important to note that the close states of IA, MT, NH, NV, NM, ND, and SD control, combined, more electoral votes (30) than any of the big swing states separately, the largest of which being Florida (27). They also each have 7 or less electoral votes. This could lead to some interesting campaign strategies, especially given the expected cash differences. Obama might use his money advantage to saturate the relatively cheap media markets. McCain will most definitely see potential for his favored platform of the town hall to have a greater effect in these small states. If either candidate wins a vast majority of these states they will be in good shape to win the election on the whole. The pivotal swing state in such a close election could be any of the under eights that were mentioned.
270TOWIN: Interesting points. New Hampshire is probably not as inexpensive as some of the other states you list, as a decent chunk of the population resides in the Boston market (for those purposes). Additionally, despite what the limited polling in those states indicate now, history would suggest that if MT, ND and SD are truly competitive in the fall, this won’t be a very close election.
8 Alex // Jul 30, 2008 at 6:15 am
I do not think that Obama is going to win in New Mexico. The strong hispanic population in that state is leaning heavily towards John McCain. The Obama camp is going to have face the fact that Hispanics will not come out for Obama. The entire Southwestern United States is McCain territory.
Also if any southern states such as Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, or the Carolinas go to Obama then he will more than likely pull out a victory.
As for Flordia, I strongly believe that the large hispanic population will be the deciding factor in that state going for McCain. The current status of race relations between hispanics and african-americans is going to hurt Obama in that state.
9 quincyconscience // Jul 31, 2008 at 2:12 am
why does Mississippi occasionally go for obama in the simulator? Isn’t that Mccain +10 in the Survey USA and Ramussen average?
270TOWIN: Over the long run, MS should go to Obama less than 1% of the time with that spread in the polls and the sample size.
10 Jack // Jul 31, 2008 at 9:41 pm
A couple of comments.
Alex: you say that the Hispanic population is leaning towards McCain. I beg to differ: a recent poll shows Hispanics going to Obama by a margin of 66% to 23%. This should really help him in a state like New Mexico, where about 37% of the voting population is Hispanic, and also in Colorado.
Also, I doubt that Romney will help significantly in Maine. Yes, Romney was a governor of a very blue state, but by the time he left office he had a -20 approval rating (approvals minus disapprovals). He was weak enough in his home state to only win 51% in the Republican primary, so even Republicans weren’t all that enamored with Romney.
11 Tim // Jul 31, 2008 at 9:55 pm
In response to Alex:
Recent polls, with race statistics released show Obama leading by a large margin with Hispanics. Can you tell me what makes you think hispanics will not go for Obama in New Mexico or Florida? The polls show otherwise, especially in New Mexico, which looks like a likely Dem state to me.
12 William // Aug 5, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Obama will flip Virginia if Tim Kaine is his running mate. This will likely be enough to win the general election assuming there’s not much change in the electoral map elsewhere. Even so, winning Virginia virtually negates a hypothetical gop victory in traditional battleground states like Michigan or Missouri. Interesting inroad to the Presidency.
13 Alex // Aug 7, 2008 at 4:06 am
I think we are going to see great changes in the electoral map for this election. I would not at all be surprised to find an island red state surrounded by a sea of blue states and vice versca.
I find myself in agreement with William in terms of Virginia going for Obama. I do not see how the Republicans can win without that state.
I am definitely adding Virginia to my list of indicator victory states. If it should go blue, then more than likely Obama will win.
I am still unsure of how to rate New Hampshire. I do not see Obama winning all of the New England states, but I do not know how this will affect his chances.
14 Ell // Aug 8, 2008 at 7:26 pm
In the last 44 years, every president has won KY,OH, TN, and MO.
15 quincyconscience // Aug 11, 2008 at 4:33 am
This is gonna seem like overkill on Ell but that doesn’t mean anything. In 10 contests it would be odd if a winner didn’t carry at least 4 of the same states every time just by regional and demographic factors. Ohio’s streak is impressive and somewhat more relevant in itself, but adding those 3 states doesn’t mean anything. 10 contests is simply not significant.
16 Jack // Aug 14, 2008 at 3:23 pm
William, I must disagree with the statement that Kaine will give Obama Virginia. While Kaine is not terribly unpopular, his approval rating is not extremely high, either. Kaine would perhaps have a negligible positive effect on Obama’s chances in Virginia.
17 William // Aug 18, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Jack, irregardless of Kaine’s poll numbers, I still think he could help Obama win in Virginia. Democrats have registered more new voters here, including heavily African-American precincts in Southside and Tidewater. Plus, suburbanites from Northern Va. aren’t expected to come out in droves for McCain this time. Add Kaine to the ticket, and some Virginians might feel nostaligic about being “Mother of Presidents” again. All this could tip the scales in favor of Obama in a tight contest.
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