Among many other things, the official Census leads to reapportionment — and this will determine how many House seats each state has beginning with the 2012 election (as well as the outline of Congressional Districts).   It will also change the electoral college map, as each state receives one electoral vote for each representative (plus two for the two Senate seats).

We thought we’d take a look at how the map would likely change if the population figures released today were the actual Census numbers:

Arizona +1, Florida+1, Georgia +1, Illinois -1, Iowa -1, Louisiana -1, Massachusetts -1, Michigan -1, Nevada +1, New Jersey -1, New York -1, Ohio -2, Pennsylvania -1, South Carolina +1, Texas +3, Utah +1, Washington +1.  

These changes are depicted on the map above, with the states colored to match the winner in the 2008 election.   If that election were held with this projected 2012 map in place, Barack Obama would have ended up with 6 fewer electoral votes and the final count would have been 359-179 instead of 365-173.

There were a couple changes in here from our last projection which reflect the fact that the recession has slowed growth in certain states as fewer people are relocating.  For example, in that prior assessment, we had Florida gaining 2 electoral votes (now 1) and California gaining 1 (now 0).   If that trend continues until the Census, it may turn out that the 2012 map doesn’t yield as many changes as it might now appear.