2012 Presidential Election Polls

Toss Up States June 1 Update

June 1, 2012

For background on this, see this Swing States Update post.  The current toss up map is here; 10 states remain in the toss up category based on the criteria of being listed as a toss up by one or more of 4 professional pundits.

NBC and Cook Political have made some race ratings changes this week.   Those that impact the toss up states are shown in the accompanying table.   Seven states are now seen as toss ups by all these groups:  Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. Iowa and New Hampshire are new this time.   There’s a difference of opinion on North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 


In the above table, From R(epublican), From D(emocrat) and From T(oss up) reflect the prior rating for those that have changed.
  • Nathan Heburn

    Thank you for making a chart to show what the political experts think.

  • LuvDusty

    VA will go blue again this year. Obama’s lead is very strong in NOVA (where most of the voters are) and in Richmond and Norfolk/VA Beach/Hampton Roads area.

    I predict that this will be a very close election, with possibly either VA or Ohio being the deciding factor, both states that I think Obama will carry. (Am less sure about Ohio).

    • mark

      Well I predict that Obama is on a downward spiral with no poll showing him breaking the magic 50% number in every single swing state thus far. thats big trouble for an incumbent. Now internal polls have Obama currently trailing Romney in Michigan, and Virginia. Obama also lost North Carolina and the Dem Natl convention is in Charlotte….Seems like Obama is in for a rough summer and a worse fall..

  • Steve

    Since 2008, all big elections have gone the republicans way. 2009: New Jersey and Virginia go R for governors; 2010: R’s take house and Senate plus several governors, 2012: Wisconsin does not vote to recall Walker. So, 2012, Obama is in big trouble.

  • Anonymous

    I think it will be a 269 – 269 tie with Iowa, ohio, florida, wisconsion go red. West Verginia, colorado, nevada go blue again.

    • mark

      269 tie leaves it up to the house of Reps. therefore, Romney takes it!

  • Steve

    I don’t see WVA going blue; they went for McLame in 2008. CO and NV–who knows.

  • mark

    Now two polls have Romney ahead in Michagan as well as Iowa going for Romney. Game…Set…Match….no way Obama wins if he loses Michigan.

    • Cee Bee

      Just keep wishin’, Mark. Just keep wishin’.

  • Bob

    Nevada, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania appear to be Obama’s at this point. That means Romney needs to win almost all of the remaining swing states by appealing to a variety of swing voter concerns; or, appeal to traditional Democratic voters. I doubt that he takes the latter approach as it may not sit well with core Republican leaders. Its doubtful that jobs will get much traction either, since neither Obama nor Romney have a good track record when it comes to creating jobs. On healthcare, the Obama plan was based upon Romney’s Massachussetts plan. On gun control Romney signed an assault weapons ban and Obama would prefer to stear clear of that issue. So, what will this election be about?

  • Heinrich

    I find it peculiar that Michigan is not listed as a swing state. Some polls have Romney up, some have Obama up. But it’s been within a few points either way. Much closer than Nevada for example.

  • Jeff

    I also think its 269 -269. Here is how…..

    Obama gets Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsyvania.

    Romney gets Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia, and North Carolina

    Romney wins in the House!!

  • John

    So many variables! Beyond the surface polls, we also have to be aware that if the range is 4% or less in a particular state it opens the door to the kind of corrupt chicanery (short counts as in Florida, hacked electronic voting machines as in Ohio) which cost the actual winner the elections in 2000 and 2004. To ensure a win, either party – but especially the President’s – will have to put massive efforts into turning out the vote on Election Day to overcome this threat if their margin of victory is close enough to be stolen and to overcome widespread voter suppression measures my party (I remain a registered Republican) has been openly promoting for several years.

  • Anonymous

    Which swing states are projected for obama

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