2012 Presidential Election Polls


Super Tuesday

March 1, 2012

Summary of Results:  
Times displayed below are Eastern time.

  • 7PM:  Polls close in Georgia, Virginia and Vermont.   Per NBC:  Gingrich has won Georgia and Romney has won Virginia and Vermont.
  • 7:30PM:   Polls close in Ohio.  Romney has won Ohio.
  • 8PM:   Polls close in Massachusetts, Oklahoma and Tennessee.  Romney has won Massachusetts, Santorum has won Oklahoma and Tennessee.
  • 9PM:   Polls close in North Dakota.  Santorum has won North Dakota.
  • 1oPM:  Polls close in Idaho.  Romney has won Idaho.
  • 12AM:  Polls close in Alaska.  Romney has won Alaska.

Update March 6:   We’ve now got a Super Tuesday polls page set up to display polls associated with these contests.

Update March 5:   Polls out over the weekend and earlier today indicate a momentum shift from Santorum toward Romney in states where Santorum has been leading.     In Ohio, which offers the 2nd largest total of Super Tuesday delegates, Santorum’s large lead has evaporated, and the two are basically tied.     In Tennessee, Santorum’s double digit lead has fallen to about 5 points, right around the margin of error.    More limited polling is available for Oklahoma, but the trend is the same.  However, Santorum still held an 11 point lead in a poll out over the weekend.

270toWin is working on a page to display Republican primary polls.  Hopefully, we’ll have it up later today.

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For the 2012 presidential election, Super Tuesday will occur on March 6.      10 states will hold Republican primaries or caucuses on this date, with 437 delegates up for grabs.   This represents approximately 19% of the 2,286 total Republican delegates.    The delegates available on Super Tuesday alone will be greater than in all events leading up to that date.

Here’s a bit more on each state holding an event on Super Tuesday.   Information compiled from Wikipedia, Real Clear Politics and fivethirtyeight.   The delegate counts listed are the totals for the state at the Republican convention in Tampa this summer.   Included in those totals, for most states, are a few unbound delegates that won’t be allocated based on the primary or caucus results.

  • Alaska holds a caucus with 27 delegates, allocated proportionately.  No polling information is available.
  • Georgia holds an open primary with 76 delegates, allocated proportionately.  Recent polling has Newt Gingrich with a low double digit lead, with Rick Santorum slightly ahead of Mitt Romney for 2nd.
  • Idaho holds a caucus with 32 delegates, allocated proportionately.  However, if any one candidate receives over 50%, he will receive all the delegates.  No polling is available.
  • Massachusetts holds a primary with 41 delegates, allocated proportionately.  Romney is expected to win the vast majority of these.
  • North Dakota holds a caucus with 28 delegates, allocated proportionately.   No polling information is available.
  • Ohio holds a primary with 66 delegates.  15 of these are at-large and allocated proportionately (except all go to any candidate getting over 50% of the vote).   48 congressional district delegates are winner-take-all.   Santorum hold a high single digit lead over Romney in most recent polling.  Update:  A Quinnipiac poll out March 2nd shows Santorum’s lead down to 4%, within the margin of error.
  • Oklahoma holds a primary with 43 delegates, allocated proportionately (except all go to any candidate exceeding 50% of the vote).  Santorum has a large lead of about 20% over both Romney and Gingrich.
  • Tennessee holds an open primary with 58 delegates, allocated proportionately (except all go to any candidate exceeding 66% of the vote).  Santorum leads Romney by about 20% in polling.
  • Vermont holds an open primary with 17 delegates, most allocated proportionately (except all go to any candidate exceeding 50% of the vote).   Romney has a high single digit lead over Santorum based on limited polling.
  • Virginia holds an open primary with 49 delegates.  13 of these are at-large and allocated proportionately (except all go to any candidate getting over 50% of the vote).   33 congressional district delegates are winner-take-all.     Romney and Paul are the only two candidates on the ballot; polling has Romney up by over 30%.

This year’s Super Tuesday is a much smaller event than the one held on February 5, 2008.   On that date, 24 states and American Samoa held their nominating elections.

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