We’ve updated our electoral college map, rolling it over to make 2012 the interactive year, and moving 2008 into history. (Just select 2008 or any prior election on the drop down above the map to see the results). This is our first pass at 2012; more improvements to come as the election draws nearer.
The major change to the map is the ability to view 2012 based on the electoral votes of 2008 or based on an estimate of what the electoral college map will actually look like in 2012. For more on why the map will change, including a graphic showing the projected changes by state, see this post.
In addition, the Starting Views have been updated. The default is now 2008 Actual, including the split vote for Nebraska. Other options include 2008 Very Close (states decided by 5% or less) and 2008 Competitive (states decided by 10% or less).
We’ve also reactivated our “Road to 270″ feature, that lets you see every possible combination for each party to reach 270 electoral votes…. based on your customized map.
Check it out and let us know what you think.
{ 17 comments… read them below or add one }
let me just run through my list of toss-up states : Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Nebraska, Mass., N.J., Minnesota, Ind.,Wis., and New Hampshire for 2012…the Republicans have an advantage, because of the 2010 census : not sure if the dems have a chance with it, or not…i think that Mitt Romney is probably the best bet for the Republicans this time… I dont know? Comment this please?…
Tell me that Im right, because Im always…
I agree with you on those except Romney will lose Massachusetts and New Jersey because they are safe for Obama. Minnesota is leaning for Obama but Indiana is leaning for Romney. Only one state you forgot to mention and that will be Arizona. You are right that Romney is the best bet to win the Nomination for GOP.
I FULLY AGREE MITT ROMNEY IS the
BEST MAN FOR the JOB IN 2012 . HE IS BLAND , BUSINESSLIKE , LEVEL HEADED , JUST the RIGHT AGE AND ELECTABLE . TIM PAWLENTY WOULD MAKE A GOOD VP . AFTER 4 YEARS OF THIS ADMINISTRATION , PEOPLE WILL BE READY FOR A REAL CHANGE !!
Romney-Jindahl will sweep every state except, Obama will win Hawaii, Ill., New York, Vt, RI, Ct, Delaware and DC-thats assuming the economy is still in the tank and unemplyment us still high!
Wrong! Forgot Oregon, California, New Jersey, Washington State, Maine, Maryland, and Obama’s VP home state of Delaware, and Massachusetts are all safe for Obama. Minnesota is leaning for Obama as well. Check your facts first.
Let me address each of you one at a time.
JJ; If Massachusetts, New Jersey, Wisconsin and Michigan are toss ups, then Obama is in real trouble. But I don’t believe they are. The rest of the states I agree with.
Clinton Lee; Mitt Romney will not be president for two reasons. 1, The Tea Party would never allow a moderate New Englander because of their radical views and 2, He’s not a Christian, which will upset even more of the right.
Jerry; Obama is winning more than 7 states and DC, I guarantee it. The way I see it now, Obama has the following states. Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii.
The statistical probability of Obama winning re-election,and with a higher percentage, margin, and allottment of the EC, is extremely high. Only four times in the last 110 years has an incumbent been defeated: Taft (R-1912), Hoover (R-1932), Carter (D-1980), Bush 41 (R-1992) – and three of those four were REPUBLICANS. Furthermore, the only sitting president to win a leaner re-election than his first election was Woodrow Wilson in 1916.
If during a massive GOP wave in 2010 the GOP is not able to pick up even one seat of any kind in CA, then you know that CA is a firewall DEM state. In polling after the election of 2010 for presidential match-ups for 2012, Obama is ahead in VA and NC is extremely competitive. Where Obama may have problems is in WI and OH. But right now, at the heighth of the sting of a GOP rout in the 2010 mid-terms, Obama has at least 200 EV already locked up for the GE in 2012: ME, NY, NH, RI, CT, DE, MA, MD, MI, IL, MN, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI. And states like VA and NC, PA, CO and IA will most likely become firm. In spite of a massive GOP wave, the GOP barely picked up the senate seat in PA. When the GE 2012 voters turn out in Philly, then PA is all but guaranteed to go blue. Even Bush 43 could not flip this state at the heighth of popularity over the Iraq war.
So, do not underestimate the power of the incumbency. Pundits all declared Clinton dead in 1995 and he came back to win with a +8 point margin in 1996. And he had LOWER numbers at this point in his presidency than Obama has now.
Plus, the banking of the GOP to the extreme right helps the party in base elections like primaries and mid-terms, but not necessarily in GE’s. All those latinos in NV and CO and NM and CA and AZ will remember the hateful anti-immigration tone of 2010 when they go to the ballot box in 2012.
Obama won in 2008 with 52.87% and a +7.26% margin. He will win in 2012 with around a +9.5 to +10 margin.
You forgot Ford in 1976 who was an Incumbent as well. He was the President when he lost to Carter.
If during a midterm election, a party takes 64 house seats, the largest change since 1948 if I might add, then the people obviously have a problem with the party in power and the President in charge. States like Ohio, Indiana, NC, or Virginia, will NOT vote Dem in 2012. Look at those states voting histories, it isn’t going to happen. Also from the blowout of Republican victories in the Florida governors race and senate race, I wouldn’t be surprised if Florida went to Republicans as well. I doubt any Dem believes Obama will get ANY votes out of Nebraska, so we’ll just give all of them to the Republican candidate. If Republicans win the states I have listed : FL, NC, VA, IN, OH, and ALL of Nebraska then they only need to win 1 (Yep that’s right) 1 of the following states to win the election.
Nevada (Voted Republican in 2000 and 2004) Result: 272-266 (R wins)
Colorado (Voted Republican in 1996, 2000, and 2004) Result: 275- 263 (R wins)
Iowa (Voted Republican in 2004) Result: 272-266 (R wins)
New Hampshire (Voted Republican in 2000, was considered competitive in 2008, also gave both of their congressional seats to Republicans in 2010) Result: 270-268 (R wins)
New Mexico (Voted Republican in 2004) Result: 271-267 (R wins)
Also, the border policies were not hateful, they were JUST!
Wrong! read again! Ohio hasn’t voted wrong since 1960 when they voted for Nixon over JFK who won the 1960 Election. Same with Missouri. They made mistake in 2008 but I am sure they wouldn’t do it again. I agree with you on Indiana and Virginia but only if Romney is the nominee for GOP. One of Nebraska’s votes is possibly going to Democratic. North Carolina is the toss-up because that is where Democrats are hosting in 2012 and that is in Charlotte. Check on DNC.org
Also if I may add bonncaruso, all of the ousted incumbents you mentioned were ousted in a time of chaos, Taft during WW1, Hoover during the Great Depression, Carter during the energy crisis, and Bush during the Savings & Loan crisis. If you think we’re not in a period of chaos now, that’s just plain stupid. We will remember in November!
Taft wasn’t ousted during World War I. It didnt happen until he left the office which was 1914. Taft was ousted because Teddy Roosevelt beat him badly.
Gary, I agree with most of what you said. I think you are correct about the tea party not backing Romney. But you are dead wrong when it comes to Romney not being a Christian! Romney and the other members of The Church of JESUS CHRIST of Latter-Day Saints are the most Christian people I know. They know more about Christ and His Gospel(and actually living it) than most all other “Christian” people I know. But you may be right about the Southern evangelicals not backing Romney due to the same misconception. It is sad, because Romney really is the most qualified when it comes to being President. And he has always surrounded himself with great leaders as well.
Wrong! Religion has nothing to do with salvation. Jesus said in John 14:6 “I am the way, the truth and the life. No man cometh to the Father, but by me.” That means Jesus is the only one to heaven. Romney was using Mormon to save him from hell. Mormonism doesnt earn you salvation because Religion and good works doesnt save anyone.
Doing research for a class project and you folks have given a great deal of information to me. I feel however that this election will be the one that turns the tide in many unexpected places.
I feel however that this election will be the one that turns the tide in many unexpected places.
The 2012 presidential election is going to come down to Florida’s 29 electoral votes.
Obama will come out of the Pacific West and Colorado River states with 96 electoral votes. Like wise, he will earn 56 electoral votes in the Rust Belt states, Almost certainly, he will take the eastern seaboard states north of the Mason-Dixon line, save and except, New Hampshire, for a total of 91 electoral votes. This total, 243 votes, will require that he take Florida, to reach 272 votes. Religion will play an important role for the Republican candidate. Romney’s Morman beliefs will hurt him among Evangelicals, Fundamentalists and Catholics. Perry’s over the top religiosity will hurt him everywhere outside the deep south. Most Americans have deep seated distrust of politicans who vociferously mix politics and religion. Thus, if the minority and youth vote along with the strong Jewish and senior citizen vote in south florida comes out strongly in Florida for Obama, he wins…with, at a minimum, 311 electoral votes.