Some new polls out of the University of Wisconsin-Madison.  You can read more about them here.  They surveyed 600 registered voters in 7 upper Midwest states.   Results follow:
state Obama McCain
MN 0.47 0.45
IA 0.45 0.45
WI 0.45 0.44
IL 0.53 0.37
IN 0.43 0.47
MI 0.48 0.44
OH 0.46 0.45
PA 0.45 0.45
Other than IL, the results are all a statistical tie.    Since we already show all these states (except IL) as toss-up on our poll map, [...]

[Read more →]

Some new polls today.   Most surprising is Indiana, where Obama is slightly ahead in a Selzer poll, although within MOE so not wholly inconsistent with most other polls that show a statistical tie there.  We continue to show Indiana as a tossup on the polling map.    New Mexico appears to be moving back [...]

[Read more →]

We’ve split the electoral vote on our polling map into more categories, to reflect the full list of colors on the map:  swing, lean, likely and safe.  We’ve also added a date stamp so you’ll know when the last updates were made.
Today, American Research Group came out with a huge number of state polls, including [...]

[Read more →]

Check out our new 270toWin widget.   You can now keep track of the projected electoral college totals from your desktop or post to places like your Google home page, a Facebook account or blog.

[Read more →]

As you may know, Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that split their electoral votes, with two votes going to the winner of the state’s popular vote and one electoral vote going to the winner of each Congressional District (2 in ME and 3 in NE).     So, in theory, the electoral vote in [...]

[Read more →]

**If you are reading this directly instead of linking here, this relates to the section under the interactive map on the 270toWin home page called “The Probability of 270″.**
However you get here, it is important to point out up front that the outcome of this exercise is statistically valid based on current polls and is [...]

[Read more →]