While some Alaska polls had McCain and Obama close, the nomination of Palin will likely move Alaska solidly red in upcoming polls.   (Barring a complete Obama landslide, we were pretty skeptical that Obama could win there, so ultimately this is a non-event in terms of the expected outcome for Alaska).   Alaska has only voted Democratic [...]

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We note some new CNN/Time polls out this week in several swing states.   What is interesting about these polls is the wording of the question and the fact that the same question was asked twice, with the 2nd time including some of the more well-known 3rd party candidates.
Anyway, to the first issue, to paraphrase, the [...]

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Did you know that:

No Democrat or Republican candidate has won the election while losing both Florida and Michigan
No Republican has won while losing both Ohio and Pennsylvania
No Democrat has won while losing both Missouri and Virginia

If you’re curious about whether any combination of up to 3 states has ever been lost by a winning Democrat [...]

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The simulator is new to 270toWin in 2008, so it is still a work-in-progress for us.  We like the statistics behind it, but need to point out an important issue.
Most national polls of late show the race to be very tight with Obama ever so slightly up; one poll out today (Reuters/Zogby) shows McCain has [...]

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After losing about 98% of the simulations in recent weeks, John McCain is starting to show some signs of life as recent state-level polls have generally moved closer.   This appears to be consistent with some of the national polling that has shown the race tightening in recent weeks.   While national polls are ultimately irrelevant, they [...]

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Found this site today.   Extremely well-written posts with excellent analysis.

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