We’ve tweaked our methodology for the simulator a bit, using an average in some states.  Previously, we were basically picking one recent poll for a state and using that.    However, in many states we’re seeing wildly different results over a short period of time.   Since even a slight difference in percentages makes a huge difference […]

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Many of you have seen our new election simulator.   This tool takes current polling in each state, turns the results into probabilities, and then runs simulated elections based on those probabilities.
Until the middle of last week, the simulator was behaving quite nicely (especially for a site like ours that will get more traffic if the […]

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Polls that have been conducted since Obama became the presumptive nominee show a good-sized bump for the candidate.   This has occurred across-the-board — red states have become a bit less red and some important swing states have gone blue.   As a result of 3 new Quinnipiac polls today, Obama has a lead outside the […]

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You now have the ability to split the electoral votes of Maine & Nebraska on the 270toWin interactive map.
Background:  Although it is possible for an Elector to cast his or her vote for someone other than for the popular vote winner in their state, this is quite rare in modern times. As a result, Electoral […]

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We’ve added new polls today in 14 states. Interestingly, this latest batch is quite strong for Clinton relative to Obama in a number of states, including several of the key swing states. We’re not poll pundits, so will leave the analysis for others, but it is a bit of a paradox […]

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