The results in New Hampshire this past Tuesday (1/8) and Rudy Guiliani’s strategy of not aggressively campaigning in these early states have made it impossible to determine who the likely nominees for either party will be. As a result, head-to-head polling is all over the place, depending on who the candidates are.

Until the 2008 nominees are clearer (hopefully after Super Tuesday on February 5), our Probability of 270 feature will be based on 2004 actual results, not a hypothetical matchup.