Based on recent polls, and the increased likelihood of an Obama vs. McCain race, we’ve moved North Carolina from Republican to Swing and Arkansas from Swing to Republican. The latter decision was fairly easy — the only way Arkansas is really in play is if Sen. Clinton is the nominee.
North Carolina, Virginia and even South Carolina have been fairly competitive in most polls between Obama and McCain. Since 1968, those states have voted exclusively Republican (except for 1976 when both Carolinas went for Carter). It will add an interesting dynamic to the 2008 race if those states are once again competitive as the election draws near.
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What I can’t quite get is why Florida remains shown as a swing state. Hillary Clinton looked strong there, but the only polls I’ve seen show McCain with a 5 to 10 point lead.
270toWin: The latest Florida polls have been all over the place. Quinnipiac has Obama up by 4, Rasmussen has McCain up by 8. Florida probably leans a bit more toward McCain in a race with Obama than it would have with Clinton, but it is too far out, in our opinion, to say that it isn’t going to be competitive.